LithiaWx Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 About as bleak as you can get for snow in the short term around here. 000 FXUS62 KFFC 211952 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 252 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... VARIOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER TODAY. DECENT 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS COMBINES WITH RESPECTABLE INSTABILITIES...MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 600 J/KG...TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THIS WARM AIRMASS...THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AREA WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA IN ALABAMA. TONIGHT...EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. NAM SHOWS RESPECTABLE MUCAPE VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. CONCERN WOULD BE CONVECTION CONTINUING AFTER NIGHTFALL WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. 0-1KM BULK SHEAR IS BELOW OPTIMAL RANGE... STRUGGLING TO REACH 30KTS...BUT IT IS STILL WORTH KEEPING HIGHER POPS THAN GUIDANCE IN CENTRAL GEORGIA AND IN MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA AS WELL INCLUDING METRO ATLANTA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AND CLOSING IN ON RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. SIDED WITH BIAS ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THURSDAY...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR RETURN OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...SO A SLIGHT CHANCE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. MODELS FAVOR NORTHWEST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM FAVORING BETTER CONDITIONS FOR THUNDER ACROSS THE CWA. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUES AS WE NEAR RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA...ONCE AGAIN SIDING WITH A BIAS ADJUSTMENT THAT IS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. THURSDAY NIGHT...MUCAPE STAYS RESPECTABLE EVEN AFTER NIGHTFALL. MAIN FOCUS OF THREAT IS FROM METRO ATLANTA NORTH. CONTINUED CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA FROM THIS CONVECTION THROUGH 06Z. MINIMIZED THREAT MOVES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY 12Z. SIDING WITH A BIAS ADJUSTMENT OF GUIDANCE...WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS MOVING INTO THE CWA. FRIDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF WITH ITS MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS INVADES FOR A DAY. 10 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... /ISSUED 403 AM EST WED DEC 21 2011/ LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES DURING THE LONG TERM. COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SHOWS AT LEAST TWO OR THREE MORE IMPULSES FORECAST TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY. HAVE LEFT POPS IN FOR EACH PERIOD THROUGH THAT TIME. FOR NOW...LOOKS LIKE SOME AGREEMENT THAT THINGS WILL BE DRY BY TUESDAY. 41 && .HYDROLOGY... A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS AND HPC INDICATING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THIS EVENT OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESFFFC ISSUED TO EXPLAIN NORTHWEST GEORGIA SITUATION...NOT EXPECTING NEED TO REISSUE ESFFFC. CENTRAL GEORGIA FORECAST TO SEE AROUND TWO INCHES OF RAIN...BUT THIS DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREA IS MORE THAN CAPABLE OF HANDLING THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST TIME PERIOD. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE ANY FURTHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. 10 && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Had a couple light showers this morning - less than a tenth --- since then the Carolina Split has been living up to it's name at this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 Can't remember which year but I think early 80's It was sunny and high during Christmas day was 1 degree. But this is a different year, Can't wait to get my Christmas decorations out of the yard so I can MOW!!! Yep it needs mowing. First half of next month probably want be able to keep up the mowing. lol wow your grass is growing too? Guess I am not the only one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 You had a high temp of 1 degree? You sure bout that? My grass isn't really growing, I cut it a few weeks ago very short to the ground. I do see wild onions pretty tall now. And the mulch beds are a mess with weeds thanks to all the rain and warmth. Still, we'll get a cold period sometime in Jan and Feb...we always do. The ECMWF doesn't look nearly as warm as GFS does right now (but GFS might be right on the major warmth). I'm not an offical reporting station, But I do know it's was 1 degee that Christmas day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 I'm not an offical reporting station, But I do know it's was 1 degee that Christmas day!!! for the "high temp"? I must have misread it. Yeah I know we had a couple really cold outbreaks think around 83 and 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2011 Share Posted December 21, 2011 for the "high temp"? I must have misread it. Yeah I know we had a couple really cold outbreaks think around 83 and 85. I know for the day light hours it stayed 1 all day, Now it may have been warmer at midnight i'm not sure about the high for 24 hour period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 KCLT could be at 49 for the average temperature on the month by Friday. That's one degree short of being on the top 5 warmest list. Think I remember you saying earlier that it would take a miracle for it not to make the top 5 warmest Decembers on record. That was a pretty bold statement and it is looking less likely as each day passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I don't think I reached the .10 mark and the green on the radar is vanishing as it heads this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I don't think I reached the .10 mark and the green on the radar is vanishing as it heads this way Same here, just under a tenth Still some precip coming in from the south but looks miss as the heading is more east than north. Did have a chance to fire up the grill tonight, dodged a couple showers, otherwise nice weather for the barbie considering mid-Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 A couple more pieces of energy will be heading our way, one starting to form in TX and one in Utah/Wyoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I know for the day light hours it stayed 1 all day, Now it may have been warmer at midnight i'm not sure about the high for 24 hour period? it was bone chilling temps in either 94 or 95. I remember installing a landscape and highs that week were in the low to mid teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I don't think I reached the .10 mark and the green on the radar is vanishing as it heads this way If the 0z Nam is right you're area will see very little rain out of this next event. It shows the rain from I-85 and on to the northwest from there. We got less than a half inch today and now are not looking for much out of this next event after thinking I'd see an inch or more. That ridge in the bahamas is just too strong right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Tried to post this in the LR, but it's locked up. Since it appears we will be sarting January off warm and for who knows how long I started digging. The 6th warmest January on record for the US as of January 2000, was you guessed it Jan 2000. I'm sure alot of you in central NC remember Jan 2000. The second half of the month was without a doubt the best 1-2 week period of winter weather I have expierenced. If memory serves me correct we had 4 sepearte events within this time span and of course one of them was the "Carolina Crusher." Whats weird is how dry it was for the month back then overall nationaly and Globaly. We had big time cold bottled up over the poles and torch going on underneath, much like today. The month started off with ridge in the central/east U.S v/s Troughiness in the west. Then mid month they flipped. Anyway heres the link with the summary. Not sure if we where heading in or out of La-Nina that year, but it goes to show regardles of how stacked the pattern is in our favor or against us, the unexpected is always possible in our winter climo. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/2000/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Tried to post this in the LR, but it's locked up. Since it appears we will be sarting January off warm and for who knows how long I started digging. The 6th warmest January on record for the US as of January 2000, was you guessed it Jan 2000. I'm sure alot of you in central NC remember Jan 2000. The second half of the month was without a doubt the best 1-2 week period of winter weather I have expierenced. If memory serves me correct we had 4 sepearte events within this time span and of course one of them was the "Carolina Crusher." Whats weird is how dry it was for the month back then overall nationaly and Globaly. We had big time cold bottled up over the poles and torch going on underneath, much like today. The month started off with ridge in the central/east U.S v/s Troughiness in the west. Then mid month they flipped. Anyway heres the link with the summary. Not sure if we where heading in or out of La-Nina that year, but it goes to show regardles of how stacked the pattern is in our favor or against us, the unexpected is always possible in our winter climo. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/2000/1 Some of the Jan 2000 events missed me here in SC but we definetly were hit by the crusher down here. Had 12 inches of wet snow that came on top of about .50 -.75 of ice. Needless to say we lost power down here. It was out for 4 days. Many trees and tree limbs down all over the place from that. We had 1 small event after thew crusher and then winter was over for the most part that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 here's to the first day of Winter... @ 12am i have....61deg with a SW wind at 10 gusting to 30 maybe this will be one of those "it snowed every Wednesday in March" kind of winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 here's to the first day of Winter... @ 12am i have....61deg with a SW wind at 10 gusting to 30 maybe this will be one of those "it snowed every Wednesday in March" kind of winters I was just saying the samething.It's kinda sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Happy Winter! May you be blessed with snow this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Precip rapidly developing over Texas...looks like the Mid-South and Southeast is in for a soaker... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I was just saying the samething.It's kinda sad. but exciting at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 It has me all teary eyed seeing that plume of moisture rising up towards me, instead of coming in sideways. I look at the radar now and think, " that stuff might actually find me". It's a great present T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Sitting in deer blind at 59 degrees. Unbelievable how warm it is on December 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Sitting in deer blind at 59 degrees. Unbelievable how warm it is on December 22nd. I agree what a year makes. All i can say is at least this weather is helping my power bill thats the only good thing it is doing. Sitting at 52 and foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Foggy here as well. Yes power will be less of course Duke increasing rate so not much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Foggy here as well. Yes power will be less of course Duke increasing rate so not much difference. Ya i heard that. Seems like people can't get a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 as i was finishing the last of my christmas shopping yesterday...it was so warm and humid i felt like taking another shower when i got home...and i thought to myself, so this is what christmas time is like in the se...not so sure i'm a fan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 picked up .98 from this first system hopefully this next storm will be a good one for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Happy Winter! Picked up .10" yesterday. Models sure have cut back on precip amounts for this part of NC over the next week. HPC 12/22 12z 5 day shows .5" +/- ...GFS 00z and 6z only .3" +/- over the next 7 days. Looks like I'll be finishing up the year about 9" below normal unless something changes and I catch a rain train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 Looks like we are going to break a record of 79 set here in 1967 with a forecasted high of 82 from weather.com. Wunderground says upper 70s. Its already 62 outside. This weather is nice. Might as well enjoy it while it last! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I just sent my contact at the NWS an email to find out if we set any record high minimums this morning. My low was 61.0 at 7:42am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 22, 2011 Share Posted December 22, 2011 I just sent my contact at the NWS an email to find out if we set any record high minimums this morning. My low was 61.0 at 7:42am GSO, CLT and GSP all set a record warm minimum. Now we have the severe to contend with later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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