burgertime Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 just from the extraction data, it looks like a cold front that cant make it over the mountains(or is very slow in doing so). Yea def. just one frame and it looks like an isolated pocket of freezing temps from Boone to AVL. They would be all snow verbatim. 850 line is out towards Rockingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Typical tease Euro has cold air spilling in at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Wow, people are pretty much declaring December a bust and calling for a very mild winter over in the main forums. The sources are pretty good too. This is becoming depressing if you live on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Wow, people are pretty much declaring December a bust and calling for a very mild winter over in the main forums. The sources are pretty good too. This is becoming depressing if you live on the east coast. Look in your sig, we have time. Way too soon to be calling winter a bust, calling December a bust before it even starts is a little much as well. If we weren't seeing cold at all in the long range I would worry, but if we see seasonable cold for December I don't see the problem. I think the early noreaster got everyone excited, especially in the NE forums and now they all have their panties in a wad because they were spoiled from the start. If the models still look the same Jan 1 I'll buy into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Wow, people are pretty much declaring December a bust and calling for a very mild winter over in the main forums. The sources are pretty good too. This is becoming depressing if you live on the east coast. IF it is mild in the SE, it would make a fair number of people in the SE happy based on past comments in which they have said it might as well be mild if the prospects for snow aren't good, which seems to be the case overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 IF it is mild in the SE, it would make a fair number of people in the SE happy based on past comments in which they have said it might as well be mild if the prospects for snow aren't good, which seems to be the case overall. I doubt it. They won't be happy, they'll be upset it's not getting cold. Saying it might as well be mild or warm if freezing temps are no use due to no storm threat is like saying you'd rather have no girlfriend then to ask a girl out and be rejected, then you complain about not having a girlfriend. If it doesn't get cold, ground temps will suck, and when we do have that great once-a-year setup, it will be slush and not accumulate and people will complain because the models said 6" and they got 1". Better to have freezing temps than mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Wow, people are pretty much declaring December a bust and calling for a very mild winter over in the main forums. The sources are pretty good too. This is becoming depressing if you live on the east coast. Like a few mets have said the SE might dodge this due to the cutoffs and what we just saw this week. Either way the first half of December is not looking too cold right now. Should be fun to see the meltdown in the MA,NE, and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I doubt it. They won't be happy, they'll be upset it's not getting cold. Saying it might as well be mild or warm if freezing temps are no use due to no storm threat is like saying you'd rather have no girlfriend then to ask a girl out and be rejected, then you complain about not having a girlfriend. If it doesn't get cold, ground temps will suck, and when we do have that great once-a-year setup, it will be slush and not accumulate and people will complain because the models said 6" and they got 1". Better to have freezing temps than mild. Spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Like a few mets have said the SE might dodge this due to the cutoffs and what we just saw this week. Either way the first half of December is not looking too cold right now. Should be fun to see the meltdown in the MA,NE, and SNE. The meltdown is already in full force over there.... can't imagine what it will look like in another 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I just glanced at Accuweather's updated thoughts for winter. One big OUCH. Sure hope they are not on the mark with their outlook. Will we end up seeing a lot of this thru January? i sure hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I doubt it. They won't be happy, they'll be upset it's not getting cold. Saying it might as well be mild or warm if freezing temps are no use due to no storm threat is like saying you'd rather have no girlfriend then to ask a girl out and be rejected, then you complain about not having a girlfriend. If it doesn't get cold, ground temps will suck, and when we do have that great once-a-year setup, it will be slush and not accumulate and people will complain because the models said 6" and they got 1". Better to have freezing temps than mild. What you're saying makes perfect sense for a before the fact outlook. However, I'm taking an after the fact kind of approach with my comments. Based on my years of observing numerous posts in the SE section. IF this winter ends up cold and essentially snowless, there will be many complaints about all of the wasted cold and having to endure the discomforts of cold and high heating bills with nothing to show for it. People will be p*ssed to the wazoo. If it is mild and snowless, at least there won't be those comments and it won't be uncomfy. I doubt they'd be as pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What you're saying makes perfect sense for a before the fact outlook. However, I'm taking an after the fact kind of approach with my comments. Based on my years of observing numerous posts in the SE section. IF this winter ends up cold and essentially snowless, there will be many complaints about all of the wasted cold and having to endure the discomforts of cold and high heating bills with nothing to show for it. People will be p*ssed to the wazoo. If it is mild and snowless, at least there won't be those comments and it won't be uncomfy. I doubt they'd be as pissed. I don't mind cool but cold and no snow sucks really bad. If it's not going to snow give me upper 50's to upper 60's all season. Also wasting HUNDREDS of dollars on heating bills sucks as well. I agree with you 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 IF it is mild in the SE, it would make a fair number of people in the SE happy based on past comments in which they have said it might as well be mild if the prospects for snow aren't good, which seems to be the case overall. No way, Larry In summer it is 90, or over, everyday with little or no breaks....in winter it should be freezing or lower everyday, with few if any breaks! Fairs fair, and we ain't all golfers But that said we don't need bone breaking cold to have winter precip...witness yesterday. Just need a roller coaster with some decent dips, lol. Did you get close to something frozen yesterday, or were you out on the beach again, eating ice cream? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What you're saying makes perfect sense for a before the fact outlook. However, I'm taking an after the fact kind of approach with my comments. Based on my years of observing numerous posts in the SE section. IF this winter ends up cold and essentially snowless, there will be many complaints about all of the wasted cold and having to endure the discomforts of cold and high heating bills with nothing to show for it. People will be p*ssed to the wazoo. If it is mild and snowless, at least there won't be those comments and it won't be uncomfy. I doubt they'd be as pissed. Sure, in a perfect world, you can get either snow or on the other side of the coin, pleasant winter temps, but that's hardly the case in the real world. I agree, though, people will complain come march if they had to spend thousands on heating for no reason! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 If we're not going into a cold pattern soon, we should at least hope for "normal" temps (no torch). ---for my backyard--NWS does have high temps mostly in the 50s with lows below freezing for 5 of the next seven days. Very typical for this area. **This kind of pattern can provide more normal (to even cold) temps for people farther to the south (compared to averages). Northern Florida is under frost and freeze warnings - they don't think it's too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ridge axis continues to be too far off the west coast. The -PNA numbers below confirm this. So, while we do have have a ridge off the west coast and general troughing in the lower 48, the core of the cold air looks to be over the Rockies and upper midwest, with normal to slightly above normal temps in the SE. Some slight adjustments in the ridging pattern could yield some cold air into the SE as seen on a few Euro runs and last night's UKMet which had a 1032 mb high over Nebraska. In the big picture, the pattern could be a lot worse (for cold air) like we saw a few weeks back with the strong low over Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The excruciating wait for the pattern change. It's going to be at least a couple of weeks until it happens (and I think it will) but the long range models are going to flip and flop between every run. The Euro has been bouncing around some N Atlantic ridging in the 200+ hr range. Nice to see the PV on our side of the hemisphere. That's definitely help when we get a cross-polar flow going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 it's still Nov.folks.Just barly but still.Anyway remember last winter Dec and Jan were cold and snowy .Then came Feb and winter was over.My thinking,and i'm no meterologist by any stretch, but i'm feeling winter will start latr this year with Feb being one of our best months as far as winter.I'm basing this on hearing the LaNina may actually go neutural by then and the Old Farmers Almanac calls for a cold Feb ,4 below average,as well. Just my 2 cents worth .Nothing more nothing less. Do any out there remember the winter of March 1960 or talk from your parents or grandparents?This was a little before my time but from what i've heard winter was prety mild till March .Snowed every wed that month and stayed so cold the snow never melded much before the next one came.Food had to be dropped in by Helecopter in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Do any out there remember the winter of March 1960 or talk from your parents or grandparents?This was a little before my time but from what i've heard winter was prety mild till March .Snowed every wed that month and stayed so cold the snow never melded much before the next one came.Food had to be dropped in by Helecopter in Virginia. Photo from Boone in March of 1960... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 it's still Nov.folks.Just barly but still.Anyway remember last winter Dec and Jan were cold and snowy .Then came Feb and winter was over.My thinking,and i'm no meterologist by any stretch, but i'm feeling winter will start latr this year with Feb being one of our best months as far as winter.I'm basing this on hearing the LaNina may actually go neutural by then and the Old Farmers Almanac calls for a cold Feb ,4 below average,as well. Just my 2 cents worth .Nothing more nothing less. Do any out there remember the winter of March 1960 or talk from your parents or grandparents?This was a little before my time but from what i've heard winter was prety mild till March .Snowed every wed that month and stayed so cold the snow never melded much before the next one came.Food had to be dropped in by Helecopter in Virginia. Boone, NC got over 56" that month, crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Photo from Boone in March of 1960... Thanks for posting the picture.Had to do a doulbe take to figure out what the picture was .Mail boxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 From the Hunstville AFD: AN ANALYSIS OF THE AIR MASS FOLLOWING THIS DEEP UPPER TROUGH INDICATES CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH A VERY COLD SHALLOW AIRMASS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AN ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW CPDS STILL OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THUS, HAVE LEFT CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS ADVECTS SOUTHEAST. THOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS GOING FOR MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, HAVE CHOSEN TO JUST TREND DOWNWARD. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN SPOTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH SITTING ATOP THE AREA AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING RAPIDLY. HOWEVER, WILL HOLD OFF PUTTING THAT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERNS THAT ARE PERSISTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Several METS have been touting a "step down" process in getting the arctic air to the east on the MA/NE boards. From looking the daily changes in the long term models/ensembles, I'm tending to agree that we may see slightly above seasonal temps with progressively colder shots throughout December. Hopefully we can get lucky and catch another big one around the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 12Z teleconnections do not look too promising for the next few days to weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 In position to ski down into the clouds. One of the many awe inspiring views that can be experienced on the ski slopes on Beech Mountain. Slopes are not open yet, but I have seen this view many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 12Z teleconnections do not look too promising for the next few days to weeks. No image (???) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 No image (???) Oh, I thought the picture link would work through Google sites, guess not. Here is the link: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zlinegraphs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Guys it is early not even December yet and winter is being written off. I no it does not look good currently but the pattern will flip. Maybe not till the end of December or maybe the first of January. The models from mid to long range do not look promising but time after time again we see the models struggling past 5 days out. I would say if there are no major signs by mid December for a change then ya it may be time to worry but till then enjoy those surprise snow events just like we just had a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Guys it is early not even December yet and winter is being written off. I no it does not look good currently but the pattern will flip. Maybe not till the end of December or maybe the first of January. The models from mid to long range do not look promising but time after time again we see the models struggling past 5 days out. I would say if there are no major signs by mid December for a change then ya it may be time to worry but till then enjoy those surprise snow events just like we just had a couple days ago. While I agree with you, it's certainly a lot easier for you to say that than most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 While I agree with you, it's certainly a lot easier for you to say that than most of us Oh i am a little worried and this pattern seems to just suck on and on but i do think things will change. The NAO and AO have been positive pretty much from September through current so it has to go negative sometime. There are signs out there way out there suggesting some blocking and some pretty good cold shots but i think by the end of December we will be in a much better pattern for winter storms. If i am wrong people can stone me! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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