Lee Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z pops a coastal low off of Florida for Christmas and gets awfully close to a redux of last year......but it's a little too far OTS it might be some flizzard action for the eastern half of NC. If we get within 5-7 days of then and it is still depicting that, we may be in business back here providing they didn't do away with the GFS south and east bias when they upgraded, of which I think they did at least some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 werent we in a similar wx pattern to this before the carolina coast got hammered around xmas '89? I remember that Dec being mild up until that event? Not sure as I was just 15 then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 werent we in a similar wx pattern to this before the carolina coast got hammered around xmas '89? I remember that Dec being mild up until that event? Not sure as I was just 15 then. NO, that December was one of the coldest! http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/state-map-display.pl It was also the year with the famous quick switch, went from super cold december to very mild rest of the winter in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Now you went and done-done it... I have seen enough and am hatching a 10% SN prob for areas east of 95 in NC, effective for the next 14 days. Before you enc weenies start waxing your sleds and chomping at the bit with WeatherNC is saying its gonna sn, let's take a step back and look at this. I take 10 blank cards, write sn on the back of one, and place them on a table, your chance of picking up the magic one ---> a long shot. I will update the prob every other day, keeping in mind it expires on the 27th. Euro has the cold air stalled and looks like it might be trying to pop a low in Florida as well but has a little different look. Just last year the GFS picked up the storm then it disappeared only for the Euro to find it IIRC. Haha we shall see. It's making me jealous every time eastern NC can cash in and we get left holding the bag! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Now you went and done-done it... I have seen enough and am hatching a 10% SN prob for areas east of 95 in NC, effective for the next 14 days. Before you enc weenies start waxing your sleds and chomping at the bit with WeatherNC is saying its gonna sn, let's take a step back and look at this. I take 10 blank cards, write sn on the back of one, and place them on a table, your chance of picking up the magic one ---> a long shot. I will update the prob every other day, keeping in mind it expires on the 27th. Ok, so why am I a little trigger happy? Well, these systems that like to spin up on the tail end of a front have been good to ENC historically, not blockbuster type, but a minor deal. They also can appear rather quickly, within 72 hrs. This weekend is an example, 850's in the +3c range Sat, but there are a couple global mems over the past several runs that throw more precip back Sun, with 850's in the -3c range for the northern coastal plain. A long shot, but not out of the realm. After this, we may have 2 similar type developments before the 27th, and all I am saying is that based on my opinion, odds are about 10% someone in the east sees sn out of this. Sent from my iPhone All you need is for your good old buddy Cold Rain to start a thread on it, and you'll be in bidness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 werent we in a similar wx pattern to this before the carolina coast got hammered around xmas '89? I remember that Dec being mild up until that event? Not sure as I was just 15 then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 71 deg imby today....sigh....looks like another 70+ degree day on tap tomorrow and to top it off, Goofy took away my sprinkles In brighter news...my electric bill hasn't been bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hit 68 in town today...65 here where I am..but it was gorgeous, nonetheless. What I noticed here was the fresh air smell, crisp, clean when I went outside this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 69 is what my Cullowhee station had for the high at 1:30pm. Its right on the river around 1980'. Even though it dont feel like Christmas, i kind of enjoy it as it is more of a surreal feeling than one of dissapointment. And trust me, i want the cold like everybody as we make snow when we can and even though it may be a week or longer away, I'll take 69F on 12/14 as a nice reminder of how cold winter can really be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 High today was only 60. Not as bad as everyone else, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hit 69o this afternoon. Pretty sad for December 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Hit 69o this afternoon. Pretty sad for December 14th. Atlanta hit 70 today that's +16 above normal. Add in the low temp and KATL was +13 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Absolutely beautiful day today! Upper 60's and topped off by a beautiful sunset! The cold weather will come and it never is sustained so enjoy it folks. It looks to be cooler for Christmas at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Absolutely beautiful day today! Upper 60's and topped off by a beautiful sunset! The cold weather will come and it never is sustained so enjoy it folks. It looks to be cooler for Christmas at least! The sunset was incredible. One thing that struck me today was all of the smoke hanging low to the ground. Everyone in Emerson was burning leaves and the smoke only got 20 feet off of the ground. Driving across Allatoona and saw a campfire on the lake and it gave a great view to see the smoke rise straight up and hit the ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hit 64 today, a nice sunny day. After all the clouds and rain lately it's kind of nice, but not Christmassy. And a vast difference from this time last year, when we were headed for a low temp of 6 degrees. Going through my March 1960 files I found a record high here of 75 degrees on January 13, 1960. Pretty impressive warmth for the coldest climo day of the year. It even made the front headline of the paper with some kids in a convertible. Little did they know that around 30" of snow and sleet would befall the area within the next several weeks, in 4 seperate major storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hit 64 today, a nice sunny day. After all the clouds and rain lately it's kind of nice, but not Christmassy. And a vast difference from this time last year, when we were headed for a low temp of 6 degrees. Going through my March 1960 files I found a record high here of 75 degrees on January 13, 1960. Pretty impressive warmth for the coldest climo day of the year. It even made the front headline of the paper with some kids in a convertible. Little did they know that around 30" of snow and sleet would befall the area within the next several weeks, in 4 seperate major storms. Check your email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Hit 64 today, a nice sunny day. After all the clouds and rain lately it's kind of nice, but not Christmassy. And a vast difference from this time last year, when we were headed for a low temp of 6 degrees. Going through my March 1960 files I found a record high here of 75 degrees on January 13, 1960. Pretty impressive warmth for the coldest climo day of the year. It even made the front headline of the paper with some kids in a convertible. Little did they know that around 30" of snow and sleet would befall the area within the next several weeks, in 4 seperate major storms. Also, on January 4, 2000, the high for Rocky Mount was 77. 14, 17, and 21 days later, it snowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Also, on January 4, 2000, the high for Rocky Mount was 77. 14, 17, and 21 days later, it snowed. I cant find it right now at work but there is a video from the 80's on youtube that was shot by WRAL or TWC that shows Raleigh getting snow ( several inches to boot) a day after hitting 80 degrees I think it was in Feb. When the Mar 93 storm hit we had temps in the mid 70's at lunchtime and it was snowing by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 00z GFS has a lot of southern stream systems coming at us from eastern Texas. Through its run is has spots of 6" of rain in the Southeast and widespread 3" to 5" . The ECMWF was not quite that wet but still has the southeast quadrant of the country pretty wet through 10 days. Again, not your typical La Nina here in the Southeast, esp. my area that should be dry. Even in Nino's I'd be hard pressed to get at or above normal rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 How sweet would that graphic be with below normal temps during the same time period. The two would almost have to come together at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 FWIW the 0z cmc is very impressive for Christmas eve/ Christmas day. 00z GFS has a lot of southern stream systems coming at us from eastern Texas. Through its run is has spots of 6" of rain in the Southeast and widespread 3" to 5" . The ECMWF was not quite that wet but still has the southeast quadrant of the country pretty wet through 10 days. Again, not your typical La Nina here in the Southeast, esp. my area that should be dry. Even in Nino's I'd be hard pressed to get at or above normal rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 FWIW the 0z cmc is very impressive for Christmas eve/ Christmas day. 850's Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Atlanta hit 70 today that's +16 above normal. Add in the low temp and KATL was +13 today. And we're not the worst http://www.daculaweather.com/departure_temps.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 FWIW the 0z cmc is very impressive for Christmas eve/ Christmas day. thanks, just saw that. It has a strong system come down that sweeps in cold air at 168 hours, then has a southwest low come into the Gulf with cold air in place and phases it with incoming northern stream...overrunning into cold air in the Deep South into Carolinas. I'm sure we'd all like that, but its early. Seems like a lot of models have a southwest system taking the southern track around that time, the question is the temps more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 And it is cooling off some http://www.daculaweather.com/24hr_temp_change.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 FWIW here is precip type on the Canadian...looks like a direct hit for MBY so take it to the bank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 A nice 45 this morning! Lets go ahead and warp this one up for Christmas FWIW here is precip type on the Canadian...looks like a direct hit for MBY so take it to the bank... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 A nice 45 this morning! Lets go ahead and warp this one up for Christmas I'm afraid it will be more "warped" than "wrapped." At least we have something to talk about and analyze. I would think that it will be the first of several possiblilities over the next 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 I do believe a pattern change worthy of mention is in the offing. The GFS and at times the Euro has shown a pretty good cold pattern in the long range for several days now which IMHO is a good sign. Sure the models have been flipping back and forth in the LR, one day is shows a nice cold regime and another just more of the same but that is a whole lot better than what they have been showing for weeks on end. We are starting to see more and more signs that things will change as we get toward the end of this month and into January which is almost perfect timing for us around here. Keep up the hope guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 thanks, just saw that. It has a strong system come down that sweeps in cold air at 168 hours, then has a southwest low come into the Gulf with cold air in place and phases it with incoming northern stream...overrunning into cold air in the Deep South into Carolinas. I'm sure we'd all like that, but its early. Seems like a lot of models have a southwest system taking the southern track around that time, the question is the temps more than anything. This might just be the one you have been honking about Foothills......If we get a juicy system like that with plenty of cold air to work with, then it's going to be a fun ride. Then again, what are the odds of back-to-back white Christmas' for us? Has to be pretty slim. However, it does look like the rain chances are a pretty safe bet right now. You are right, this is not a typical La-Nina as far as the precip pattern is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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