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Something does not quite look right on that frame for Christmas Eve. I can't put my finger on it other than the precip looks really light and widespread for a FROPA. Maybe we can chalk it up to poor resolution.

Yea I was actually thinking the same thing. Precip covers like the entire east coast on that frame from Maine to Florida.

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Pretty interesting run at the end of the ECMWF today. It has a massive cutoff over northern Africa and the Middle East, and also a neat little system approaching the Southeast toward Christmas Eve. I don't recall seeing a major cutoff in the Middle East/Africa like that lately...a sure sign we're in still volatile times.

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Gonna be interesting to see how our departures for December 2011 turn out. The chatter sounds gloomy for cold/snow lovers and rightfully so. Looking at the airport in Greensboro we are only +1 for the month so far in the temp department. That can be attributed to one day 12/6 at +19. The rest of the month has been pretty steady around our seasonal average. Today and espeacilly the next 2-3 will bump these departures up no doubt. The question then becomes can it hold steady and then get dragged back down the last week of the month. Most would be betting the over(+) for the month, but it would be hillarious if we look back 1/1/2012 and see we only ended up +1 or even for the month in the face of such a non friendly pattern set up. I'd be willing to bet the airports around our forum region (ATL,CHAR,Nashvlle e.t.c ) all have a different flavor to them at the current moment.

TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND

================================================================================

1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

12Z AVG MX 2MIN

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR

================================================================================

1 54 29 42 -3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1.7 8 30 M M 0 10 30

2 63 30 47 2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 270 M M 0 17 270

3 54 36 45 1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.8 15 70 M M 0 17 70

4 59 31 45 1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.8 8 170 M M 3 12 200

5 63 41 52 8 13 0 T 0.0 0 4.9 13 160 M M 8 1 15 200

6 66 60 63 19 2 0 0.05 0.0 0 9.9 15 210 M M 10 1 20 220

7 64 38 51 8 14 0 0.62 0.0 0 14.7 37 250 M M 9 18 47 260

8 49 33 41 -2 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.3 21 310 M M 0 28 310

9 53 32 43 0 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1.7 9 260 M M 0 10 240

10 50 33 42 0 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.3 13 20 M M 1 17 340

11 43 28 36 -6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.1 14 60 M M 0 17 60

12 48 30 39 -3 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 8 20 M M 2 14 60

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Pretty interesting run at the end of the ECMWF today. It has a massive cutoff over northern Africa and the Middle East, and also a neat little system approaching the Southeast toward Christmas Eve.  I don't recall seeing a major cutoff in the Middle East/Africa like that lately...a sure sign we're in still volatile times.

This is the kinda pattern where storms you didnt see coming until its 24-36 hrs out get ya. It could be 60 on Thurs and snowing Sat night and we wont know its gonna happen till Fri.

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Yesterday was +10 above average in Atlanta for the date moving us up to +2.3 for the month. Forecast high of 70 devilsmiley.gif today, definitely a torch day today. Going to be even more above average compared to yesterday and the monthly departure is going to push even higher. Wearing shorts and short sleeved polo shirt for the second day in a row in mid December is interesting to say the least.

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Yesterday was +10 above average in Atlanta for the date moving us up to +2.3 for the month. Forecast high of 70 devilsmiley.gif today, definitely a torch day today. Going to be even more above average compared to yesterday and the monthly departure is going to push even higher. Wearing shorts and short sleeved polo shirt for the second day in a row in mid December is interesting to say the least.

I can't wait. We hit 63 up here in Dahlonega yesterday and I'm already at 61 at 11am. Look forward to basking in the warm sunshine this afternoon while going for a run.

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12z pops a coastal low off of Florida for Christmas and gets awfully close to a redux of last year......but it's a little too far OTS it might be some flizzard action for the eastern half of NC.

It's pretty obvious there will be a storm of sorts around Christmas. The timing is important here and hopefully this is the system that tracks just right and sticks around after the cold air settles in. This thing's been showing up since last week.

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The GFS is bringing in rain chances to Ga. about every 4 days.. and more, and more with a gulf component. Sooner or later, if that keeps up, timing will have a chance, especially after XMas and forward. Meanwhile, I'm way closer to 90 than 30 today. A situation that desperately needs adjustment! 67.8, and a chorus of boo's resounding through my backyard, lol. T

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GFS still hinting of somthing maybe changing over briefly on christmas eve night. still so long off but looks better than yesterday's run,,would like to see what the new run looks like in a few min's

Looks more brief on this one and not as far south

*Disclaimer- Im not a MET nor a pro at reading models just a noobY who loves weather

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12z pops a coastal low off of Florida for Christmas and gets awfully close to a redux of last year......but it's a little too far OTS it might be some flizzard action for the eastern half of NC.

Now you went and done-done it... I have seen enough and am hatching a 10% SN prob for areas east of 95 in NC, effective for the next 14 days. Before you enc weenies start waxing your sleds and chomping at the bit with WeatherNC is saying its gonna sn, let's take a step back and look at this. I take 10 blank cards, write sn on the back of one, and place them on a table, your chance of picking up the magic one ---> a long shot. I will update the prob every other day, keeping in mind it expires on the 27th.

Ok, so why am I a little trigger happy? Well, these systems that like to spin up on the tail end of a front have been good to ENC historically, not blockbuster type, but a minor deal. They also can appear rather quickly, within 72 hrs. This weekend is an example, 850's in the +3c range Sat, but there are a couple global mems over the past several runs that throw more precip back Sun, with 850's in the -3c range for the northern coastal plain. A long shot, but not out of the realm. After this, we may have 2 similar type developments before the 27th, and all I am saying is that based on my opinion, odds are about 10% someone in the east sees sn out of this.

Sent from my iPhone

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If my memory serves me correct the La-Nina we had in 07/08 and/or 08/09 seemed to favor the deep south and eastern NC in getting what little offering's winter had those 2 years. I'm thinking this was based more on the northern stream supressing/ being much more dominant as to how we ended up with those results. Not so sure this would be the case in the current La-nina we are currently expierencing, because the northern stream has been somewhat MIA so far in the winter of 11/12.

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