FallsLake Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Last couple of GFS runs would indicate that the fun and games would start at Christmas; then towards New Years. But have seen this before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Something does not quite look right on that frame for Christmas Eve. I can't put my finger on it other than the precip looks really light and widespread for a FROPA. Maybe we can chalk it up to poor resolution. maybe it can be colder and faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Also what do you guys think about this weekend? GFS shows a lot of over-running precip over NC. Man if it was just a little bit colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Something does not quite look right on that frame for Christmas Eve. I can't put my finger on it other than the precip looks really light and widespread for a FROPA. Maybe we can chalk it up to poor resolution. Yea I was actually thinking the same thing. Precip covers like the entire east coast on that frame from Maine to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 High's in the upper 60's to low 70's with low's in the mid 40's.Currently it's 61deg and sunny CAE's job has been pretty easy with the copy and paste forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 past several runs have showed a coastal low that would give Eastern-Piedmont NC snow the 27-29th time frame... showed for a few days, but LR... just something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 http://www.ottawacitizen.com/mobile/story.html?id=5847032 Anyone else surprised they hung it up? Guess it was just not worth their time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Pretty interesting run at the end of the ECMWF today. It has a massive cutoff over northern Africa and the Middle East, and also a neat little system approaching the Southeast toward Christmas Eve. I don't recall seeing a major cutoff in the Middle East/Africa like that lately...a sure sign we're in still volatile times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Definitely warmer than expected for today. Forecasted high of 61 became 66 so far. May hit another degree or two before the day is over but at least it feels nice out here. Just two days ago I was wearing a sweater and a jacket around this same time to stay warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 65o and sunny. Beautiful day to be outside studying for finals! Very torch-ish lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Gonna be interesting to see how our departures for December 2011 turn out. The chatter sounds gloomy for cold/snow lovers and rightfully so. Looking at the airport in Greensboro we are only +1 for the month so far in the temp department. That can be attributed to one day 12/6 at +19. The rest of the month has been pretty steady around our seasonal average. Today and espeacilly the next 2-3 will bump these departures up no doubt. The question then becomes can it hold steady and then get dragged back down the last week of the month. Most would be betting the over(+) for the month, but it would be hillarious if we look back 1/1/2012 and see we only ended up +1 or even for the month in the face of such a non friendly pattern set up. I'd be willing to bet the airports around our forum region (ATL,CHAR,Nashvlle e.t.c ) all have a different flavor to them at the current moment. TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 54 29 42 -3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1.7 8 30 M M 0 10 30 2 63 30 47 2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.6 14 270 M M 0 17 270 3 54 36 45 1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.8 15 70 M M 0 17 70 4 59 31 45 1 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 0.8 8 170 M M 3 12 200 5 63 41 52 8 13 0 T 0.0 0 4.9 13 160 M M 8 1 15 200 6 66 60 63 19 2 0 0.05 0.0 0 9.9 15 210 M M 10 1 20 220 7 64 38 51 8 14 0 0.62 0.0 0 14.7 37 250 M M 9 18 47 260 8 49 33 41 -2 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.3 21 310 M M 0 28 310 9 53 32 43 0 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1.7 9 260 M M 0 10 240 10 50 33 42 0 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.3 13 20 M M 1 17 340 11 43 28 36 -6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.1 14 60 M M 0 17 60 12 48 30 39 -3 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.1 8 20 M M 2 14 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Now the 18Z NAM is picking up on the potential precip this weekend (like the 12 GFS): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Pretty interesting run at the end of the ECMWF today. It has a massive cutoff over northern Africa and the Middle East, and also a neat little system approaching the Southeast toward Christmas Eve. I don't recall seeing a major cutoff in the Middle East/Africa like that lately...a sure sign we're in still volatile times. This is the kinda pattern where storms you didnt see coming until its 24-36 hrs out get ya. It could be 60 on Thurs and snowing Sat night and we wont know its gonna happen till Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 41 degrees with cold rain up here in Ohio. Heading back to the warm south this morning. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yesterday was +10 above average in Atlanta for the date moving us up to +2.3 for the month. Forecast high of 70 today, definitely a torch day today. Going to be even more above average compared to yesterday and the monthly departure is going to push even higher. Wearing shorts and short sleeved polo shirt for the second day in a row in mid December is interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 6z GFS Has rain ending as flurries in the triad NC Christmas day. Best one could hope for. Euro and GFS both advertising front coming through 23rd-25th with seasonal cooldown behind front. So atleast it will feel like Christmas hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 does anyone know if snow still looks like a possibility on Christmas Eve for western NC or are we still to far away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Yesterday was +10 above average in Atlanta for the date moving us up to +2.3 for the month. Forecast high of 70 today, definitely a torch day today. Going to be even more above average compared to yesterday and the monthly departure is going to push even higher. Wearing shorts and short sleeved polo shirt for the second day in a row in mid December is interesting to say the least. I can't wait. We hit 63 up here in Dahlonega yesterday and I'm already at 61 at 11am. Look forward to basking in the warm sunshine this afternoon while going for a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GFS still hinting of somthing maybe changing over briefly on christmas eve night. still so long off but looks better than yesterday's run,,would like to see what the new run looks like in a few min's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GFS still hinting of somthing maybe changing over briefly on christmas eve night. still so long off but looks better than yesterday's run,,would like to see what the new run looks like in a few min's 6z GFS was much more widespread with it's flizzard also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z pops a coastal low off of Florida for Christmas and gets awfully close to a redux of last year......but it's a little too far OTS it might be some flizzard action for the eastern half of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z pops a coastal low off of Florida for Christmas and gets awfully close to a redux of last year......but it's a little too far OTS it might be some flizzard action for the eastern half of NC. It's pretty obvious there will be a storm of sorts around Christmas. The timing is important here and hopefully this is the system that tracks just right and sticks around after the cold air settles in. This thing's been showing up since last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z pops a coastal low off of Florida for Christmas and gets awfully close to a redux of last year......but it's a little too far OTS it might be some flizzard action for the eastern half of NC. sounds like the cmc last night same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The GFS is bringing in rain chances to Ga. about every 4 days.. and more, and more with a gulf component. Sooner or later, if that keeps up, timing will have a chance, especially after XMas and forward. Meanwhile, I'm way closer to 90 than 30 today. A situation that desperately needs adjustment! 67.8, and a chorus of boo's resounding through my backyard, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 GFS still hinting of somthing maybe changing over briefly on christmas eve night. still so long off but looks better than yesterday's run,,would like to see what the new run looks like in a few min's Looks more brief on this one and not as far south *Disclaimer- Im not a MET nor a pro at reading models just a noobY who loves weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 12z pops a coastal low off of Florida for Christmas and gets awfully close to a redux of last year......but it's a little too far OTS it might be some flizzard action for the eastern half of NC. Now you went and done-done it... I have seen enough and am hatching a 10% SN prob for areas east of 95 in NC, effective for the next 14 days. Before you enc weenies start waxing your sleds and chomping at the bit with WeatherNC is saying its gonna sn, let's take a step back and look at this. I take 10 blank cards, write sn on the back of one, and place them on a table, your chance of picking up the magic one ---> a long shot. I will update the prob every other day, keeping in mind it expires on the 27th. Ok, so why am I a little trigger happy? Well, these systems that like to spin up on the tail end of a front have been good to ENC historically, not blockbuster type, but a minor deal. They also can appear rather quickly, within 72 hrs. This weekend is an example, 850's in the +3c range Sat, but there are a couple global mems over the past several runs that throw more precip back Sun, with 850's in the -3c range for the northern coastal plain. A long shot, but not out of the realm. After this, we may have 2 similar type developments before the 27th, and all I am saying is that based on my opinion, odds are about 10% someone in the east sees sn out of this. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Ive had it waxed since July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I hit 67 yesterday and I'm at 66 right now. The high clouds might keep it from going much higher though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 If my memory serves me correct the La-Nina we had in 07/08 and/or 08/09 seemed to favor the deep south and eastern NC in getting what little offering's winter had those 2 years. I'm thinking this was based more on the northern stream supressing/ being much more dominant as to how we ended up with those results. Not so sure this would be the case in the current La-nina we are currently expierencing, because the northern stream has been somewhat MIA so far in the winter of 11/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I hit 67 yesterday and I'm at 66 right now. The high clouds might keep it from going much higher though. Wow! wish I could do that. Be nice to be able to go back in age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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