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This has been a great day. Windy enough to feel cold rather than cool, and thickening clouds all day. Right now it feels like winter out there! Don't need seed cracking cold to feel like winter smile.png Tony

I agree! I like cold cloudy days in the winter time just to make it feel like winter. I was above 49.9 from 2:17pm until 2:42 (high of 50.7) so most of the day was in the 40's.

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Robert, are you talking daytime highs? That's some bust. Like 20 degrees worth.

Talking about tomorrow which would be about 10 degrees colder. We see this with most cad events here, even just 24 hours out. The GFS and NAM both show it strongly, and where there is precip it will be that much more of a bust. I see FFC went with upper 40's in ATL and AHN which is closer to reality but might still be too warm there.Even CAE will be quite chilly (mid 40's?) If there is steady enough precip and drizzle, then upper 30s to lower 40s is possible. Check out the direction of winds , there's hardly any source of warming in a situation like this once you wetbulb down. But yeah as for 20 degree busts, seen that plenty of times too. And just 24 hours out.

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Someone has to be the WAA step-child, and this time of year, that is usually us Ron. Agree 100%, today felt like the first real day of winter here, forecasted high of 50, PGV struggled to 46, and held it for less than an hour, 45 currently and headed south. Even around noon today windchills were still in the mid 30's. Last night was the first night I let the fireplace go all night, set the thermo to 64, and woke up this morning with 70 in the house, still a bit chilly for this FL boy, but the gas/blower did its job and kept the heat pump off, which sucks below about 35 anyway.

Today felt great. First real day of winter.

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Today was a quite chilly and windy day with highs only in the 50s.My forecast from Wunderground says showers likely in the evening which usually indicates a 60-70 percent chance of rain. I see no rain currently on the radar but well to the NW of my area and rain off the coast that looks to be moving slowly away from the coast from what I see. Then there is an 80 percent chance of rain overnight and a 90 percent in the morning according to the forecast. Where is all the rain going to come from?

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its kinda funny they(NWS) had us only a 20% chance of rain tonight all afternoon now bumped to 40% monday 30% and monday night 20% half the people who forecast have to be total morons. great call foothills!

o and thats before yesterday they put in a 20% chance monday morning.. just go's to show everyone cant always rely on the models

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We topped out at 46 today, but the breeziness sure made it feel colder. Looks like the models are having a tough time with the period after 180 hours. It's fun/depressing to watch the GFS flip-flop from .53" on the 00z last night, to .40" at 06z, to 2.81" on the 12z for the 2nd period timeframe 12/18-19 to 12/26-27 for my location, using KJNX via MeteoStar.

Then today's 18z tells me

Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 0.81 "

Really makes me glad I'm just a weather observer and not a forecaster....I just lost 2 inches of rain!!!! :D

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Brad Panovich's twitter feed is reporting a small area of rain, snow, sleet mix in Catawba, Alexander, Iredell & Wilkes Counties.

Also some sporadic flurries around Hickory.

I think the public probably sees very light rain and thinks flurries lol. Its +4 to +5 at 850 in those counties , but with some evap. cooling there could be brief sleet.

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the pattern we've been in this Summer and Fall kind of reminds me of the 86-87 year. I remember it being hot that Summer and droughty in the Southeast, then a damp fall with some warm days ahead of some lake cutter type flows. It was very cloudy in that December if I recall, and I'm not seeing much sun in our future this month (more clouds than sun), but by the end of the month and beginning of the new year things changed. A series of southwest lows came across and one dove really deep in the Gulf and ran up the east coast as a big snowmaker in January. Do patterns repeat themselves? Of course they can. And we've had a lot of cutoffs and southwest lows lately. I'm seeing a pattern. So it would be crazy to ignore the fact that a big ridge can build out west and one of the southwest lows moves east into the Gulf then up the coast when there is a cold airmass in place. As I've said a while now, there are too many shortwaves and opening cutoff waves in the flow this year to ignore that fact and the likelihood is way higher than normal that the Southeast benefits atleast once from a major snowfall out of that. Most years we only get to roll the dice a few times a Winter. This year we get to keep on rolling and keep on rolling the dice, so odds are higher than usual.

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Acting like a Nino without the overpowering stj?

the pattern we've been in this Summer and Fall kind of reminds me of the 86-87 year. I remember it being hot that Summer and droughty in the Southeast, then a damp fall with some warm days ahead of some lake cutter type flows. It was very cloudy in that December if I recall, and I'm not seeing much sun in our future this month (more clouds than sun), but by the end of the month and beginning of the new year things changed. A series of southwest lows came across and one dove really deep in the Gulf and ran up the east coast as a big snowmaker in January. Do patterns repeat themselves? Of course they can. And we've had a lot of cutoffs and southwest lows lately. I'm seeing a pattern. So it would be crazy to ignore the fact that a big ridge can build out west and one of the southwest lows moves east into the Gulf then up the coast when there is a cold airmass in place. As I've said a while now, there are too many shortwaves and opening cutoff waves in the flow this year to ignore that fact and the likelihood is way higher than normal that the Southeast benefits atleast once from a major snowfall out of that. Most years we only get to roll the dice a few times a Winter. This year we get to keep on rolling and keep on rolling the dice, so odds are higher than usual.

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It looks to me like some of the better known mets and professionals jumped the gun on this SSW. I guess time will tell and it may well still happen, but when you want to be the first to see things, sometimes things like this happen.

It feels very 1984/1985 to me, just wetter at this point for my area of northeast TN. I think all that pole cold does eventually get pushed south at some point next month and we have a few ice/snow events on a widespread basisto deal with. Maybe even a BIG one like Robert has been talking about. There is an awful lot of snowcover and cold around the earth and it's not going to just go away.

Until then, get outside and enjoy the warmer days.

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