tnweathernut Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Looks almost identical to the 0z GFS at 168. Still nice to see big cutoffs roaming around though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Well that was most interesting.....big ridge in SE....then squash! Which one to believe??? Model madness ensues. well the point was the models are having hard times with the southwest lows, and the northern stream. Sometimes the northern stream may skip that feature and allow a frontal passage in the east (and damming...like we're about to have tomorrow). Other times, all the energy will dive into the west, which allows a warm up (atleast some warm advection aloft) in the Southeast. Similar to what we had a few days ago when we had +20 degrees above normal for a day a two before the cutoff moved through. Looks like a repetitive pattern so far, but with colder air following the fronts. It's hard to say how the next 10 days will play out but I think its safe to say an occasional front will move through or stall in the Southeast while the western trough reloads. However there may be a cutoff that digs too far west or south, and allows the northern stream to push a front through us, maybe even damming or backdoor type front. Either way our warmest temps probably come when there is a Plains or Lakes cutter the day before the front comes through. Also the southern stream has a lot of cloudiness, atleast high cirrus so we probably won't get as warm as we could get with the frequent clouds all over the southern states. I think when the NAO or -AO shows up, and the pattern switches in eastern Canada, a strong storm will try to undercut the blocking ridge and thats when we could get slammed with a major Winter storm. There is a lot of energy in the flow lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Not a good look on the 0Z Euro...the phasing and the strong +PNA look disappear as does the Arctic intrusion into the central plains. Only a brief fropa out at that range in the SE and a quick return to aboves for most of us. At least another blast of Arctic air even as it modified coming across the east might have left hope for some interesting weather...but ensemble support remains strong for aboves to much aboves through the Christmas season. Those of you who are upset by this keep in mind that the heart of winter and best chances for cold and snow usually are well into Jan and Feb...it is not over until it is over. you are exactly right. Until the last few years we used to never get anything in December. Seems like always first of January thru end of February. March if we are lucky. Some of the largest storms ever were in January and March. No concern as I believe we will get into action before long. I really think we are do for an ice storm but that's just a guess. We are due for one as it has been almost ten years since that last good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 you are exactly right. Until the last few years we used to never get anything in December. Seems like always first of January thru end of February. March if we are lucky. Some of the largest storms ever were in January and March. No concern as I believe we will get into action before long. I really think we are do for an ice storm but that's just a guess. We are due for one as it has been almost ten years since that last good one I hope you get a Inch of ICE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I hope you get a Inch of ICE!!! i hope so too!!!!! A lot of work out of that. Ice melt, ice melt, ice melt!!!! Then cutting trees and hauling off!!! I like the way you talk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 24,4 this morning. Santa better put some 20's on his sleigh this year instead of rails!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I admire all the optimism in this thread and in our region, but the truth is, I can't remember the last December when we didn't even have a threat to track for the Carolinas, and that appears it will be the case through Christmas and probably beyond. Yes, long way to go before throwing in the towel, but we must face the reality that it's hard to get snow here even when everything is setup right -- we are in a pattern now where almost everything is setup wrong. Oldest rule of betting is -- bet the streak. If I were betting right now, I'd put money on this pattern, for the most part, holding through the winter. Not a good look on the 0Z Euro...the phasing and the strong +PNA look disappear as does the Arctic intrusion into the central plains. Only a brief fropa out at that range in the SE and a quick return to aboves for most of us. At least another blast of Arctic air even as it modified coming across the east might have left hope for some interesting weather...but ensemble support remains strong for aboves to much aboves through the Christmas season. Those of you who are upset by this keep in mind that the heart of winter and best chances for cold and snow usually are well into Jan and Feb...it is not over until it is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 If there is anything encouraging that I take from today's teleconnections at CPC(ensembles specifically), the AO seems to be returning to a "more normal positive" w/ some members even going negative - doubt that will actually happen. The NAO seems to take a look at neutral late in the time period. The PNA index is just flat. Basically, I would think it was a zonal pattern except for the fact the northern plains will be pretty cold. The NAO seems pretty locked-in(positive) at the moment. May be difficult to get out of this pattern. We have been burned by thinking a pattern change is in the works before, but today's teleconnections have the look of a potential change in early January, say between January 5-10. If we don't see a change in the NAO by mid-January, I am thinking we may have to pin our hopes on a spring blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It's not unusual for us (outside of the mtns) to have snowless winters, this appears to be a winter where that is a good chance, the good news is at least it should be warmer than the norm. I admire all the optimism in this thread and in our region, but the truth is, I can't remember the last December when we didn't even have a threat to track for the Carolinas, and that appears it will be the case through Christmas and probably beyond. Yes, long way to go before throwing in the towel, but we must face the reality that it's hard to get snow here even when everything is setup right -- we are in a pattern now where almost everything is setup wrong. Oldest rule of betting is -- bet the streak. If I were betting right now, I'd put money on this pattern, for the most part, holding through the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Looks like a bust may be in progress. I'm not saying there will definitely be freezing drizzle, but its going to be extremely close. The area for the best shot is where moisture will be around ne Ga and western Carolinas. The NAM is pretty cold (remember it's not usually that good on damming), and already it has the zero wetbulb at the NC/SC border tonight after midnight and Monday morning. The 7H moisture may be misleading, so go by the 850 moisture which has light drizzle all over western Carolinas, esp. around southwest NC and the Upstate and much of GA by morning. Also, a 1036 high in central Virginia thats not sliding out to sea. Currently its cold with temps in the 30's here and a stiff northeast wind funneling in the dry air. The upstate forecasters I watched this morning and CLT market had highs of low to mid 50's tomorrow. That looks very unlikely, imo. NAM has strong in-situ damming in eastern GA where plenty of moisture and locked in northeast winds keep temps in low 40's at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 the RUC has several disturbance coming right toward Ga and the Carolinas by 18 hours, they're weak, but should have little problem producing drizzle , and maybe even sleet or freezing drizzle in part of Ga and SC and southern NC by morning. The high is 1036mb so thats pretty healthy and slides from central Va to around Pennsylvania, not out to sea. We maintain northeast winds at the surface in the Carolinas and deep into Georgia tomorrow, so obviously this is going to be a decent CAD event. Current forecast highs of low to mid 50's in the ATL AHN GSP CLT corridor are going to take a massive hit I think, and that's with little precip at all. Looks like around ATL and AHN could have substantial precip. I won't be suprised to see some areas get sleet anywhere in the region, but most likely would be light rain and some pockets of light freezing drizzle early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 dewpoints currently in the teens at GSP GSO LYH...pretty nice ! With a 1038 high in West Va and Virginia that's going basically nowhere tomorrow. Latest obs map: Current temperature departures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The 06z GFS gives me some sprinkles tomorrow 24 Mon 12/12 06Z 40 ° 41 ° 40 ° 33 ° NE 9 WNW 4 0.02 0.00 550 576 6 ° -17 ° 1033 100 % 27 Mon 12/12 09Z 39 ° 39 ° 39 ° 36 ° NNE 9 ENE 2 0.09 0.00 549 574 5 ° -17 ° 1032 100 % 30 Mon 12/12 12Z 38 ° 39 ° 38 ° 37 ° NNE 11 ESE 7 0.09 0.00 549 574 6 ° -19 ° 1032 100 % 33 Mon 12/12 15Z 41 ° 41 ° 38 ° 37 ° NNE 9 SE 7 0.02 0.00 549 575 6 ° -19 ° 1033 99 % 36 Mon 12/12 18Z 43 ° 43 ° 38 ° 39 ° NNE 11 S 9 0.01 0.00 550 575 6 ° -17 ° 1031 99 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I'm going to update my blog this afternoon on the long range. So far I don't see any reason to panic on the winter in its entirety, it's just appearing December is going to be warmer than I originally thought. More of the 67-68 variety. This winter always hinted to me, at least when looking at analogs, that it would get progressively colder. Although I am in doubt of the cold being as extensive as I thought it would be later on, given how high the AO is. But I feel pretty confident things will improve down the road, however the majority of Dec is going to be a lost cause unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 latest GFS has a pretty good precip event in part of Ga and SC, but doesnt' bring much of anything into NC...guess thats a good thing with our dews in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 the RUC has several disturbance coming right toward Ga and the Carolinas by 18 hours, they're weak, but should have little problem producing drizzle , and maybe even sleet or freezing drizzle in part of Ga and SC and southern NC by morning. The high is 1036mb so thats pretty healthy and slides from central Va to around Pennsylvania, not out to sea. We maintain northeast winds at the surface in the Carolinas and deep into Georgia tomorrow, so obviously this is going to be a decent CAD event. Current forecast highs of low to mid 50's in the ATL AHN GSP CLT corridor are going to take a massive hit I think, and that's with little precip at all. Looks like around ATL and AHN could have substantial precip. I won't be suprised to see some areas get sleet anywhere in the region, but most likely would be light rain and some pockets of light freezing drizzle early. Speaking of that freezing drizzle... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 1235 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2011 .UPDATE... /ISSUED AT 1010 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2011/ FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH OVERCAST SKIES ALREADY MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA...DECREASED MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA BY GENERALLY TWO DEGREES. JUST STARTING TO SEE SHOWERS MOVE ONTO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. BOTH GFS AND SREF INDICATE THIS COULD AFFECT THE CWA BEFORE 00Z. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA FOR 22Z AND AFTER. STILL A CONCERN THAT PRECIP COULD FILTER INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND DAY BREAK MONDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST...WILL LOOK AT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS AND RE-EVALUATE CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 kind of a strange look to the water vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It almost looks 3D in the loop http://www.daculaweather.com/eauswv/eaus_wv.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It's not so much awful, as it is so darn boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Well at least today has been the first time this season that has has felt winter like to me. Highs struggled into the mid 40's with full sun and a cold NNE wind....however its gonna be near 70 on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Well at least today has been the first time this season that has has felt winter like to me. Highs struggled into the mid 40's with full sun and a cold NNE wind....however its gonna be near 70 on Thursday. i wouldn't bet on it being that warm, models have missed temps for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Well at least today has been the first time this season that has has felt winter like to me. Highs struggled into the mid 40's with full sun and a cold NNE wind....however its gonna be near 70 on Thursday. Someone has to be the WAA step-child, and this time of year, that is usually us Ron. Agree 100%, today felt like the first real day of winter here, forecasted high of 50, PGV struggled to 46, and held it for less than an hour, 45 currently and headed south. Even around noon today windchills were still in the mid 30's. Last night was the first night I let the fireplace go all night, set the thermo to 64, and woke up this morning with 70 in the house, still a bit chilly for this FL boy, but the gas/blower did its job and kept the heat pump off, which sucks below about 35 anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 today's high was 45 here (44.6). With full sun. I'm still expecting a strong CAD tomorrow, so probably not much better than today. Here's NWS forecast TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MONDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 today's high was 45 here (44.6). With full sun. I'm still expecting a strong CAD tomorrow, so probably not much better than today. Here's NWS forecast TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MONDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. local has us at 50 tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 local has us at 50 tomorrow this is a case where it would be colder south of your area, thanks to precip around my areas down to Upstate and esp. GA. The cold should lock in there around Athens to Spartanburg with evaprative cooling. Somewhere between ATL and GSP probably will hover around 40 most of the day. There's not much of anything to scour the cold air out tomorrow, not rising 850's and the surface winds stay out of the ne all day, with full cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 this is a case where it would be colder south of your area, thanks to precip around my areas down to Upstate and esp. GA. The cold should lock in there around Athens to Spartanburg with evaprative cooling. Somewhere between ATL and GSP probably will hover around 40 most of the day. There's not much of anything to scour the cold air out tomorrow, not rising 850's and the surface winds stay out of the ne all day, with full cloud cover. they predicting lower 60's here wed and thurs too! check out your PM when you get a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 they predicting lower 60's here wed and thurs too! check out your PM when you get a chance 60's Thurs. is possible if we get enough sunshine and sw winds. Any n or ne winds and we won't. I think temps around here are going to bust badly from what i'm seeing, probably staying closer to low 40s than low 50s, even with no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 We topped out at 46 today, but the breeziness sure made it feel colder. Looks like the models are having a tough time with the period after 180 hours. It's fun/depressing to watch the GFS flip-flop from .53" on the 00z last night, to .40" at 06z, to 2.81" on the 12z for the 2nd period timeframe 12/18-19 to 12/26-27 for my location, using KJNX via MeteoStar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 this is a case where it would be colder south of your area, thanks to precip around my areas down to Upstate and esp. GA. The cold should lock in there around Athens to Spartanburg with evaprative cooling. Somewhere between ATL and GSP probably will hover around 40 most of the day. There's not much of anything to scour the cold air out tomorrow, not rising 850's and the surface winds stay out of the ne all day, with full cloud cover. This has been a great day. Windy enough to feel cold rather than cool, and thickening clouds all day. Right now it feels like winter out there! Don't need seed cracking cold to feel like winter Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 60's Thurs. is possible if we get enough sunshine and sw winds. Any n or ne winds and we won't. I think temps around here are going to bust badly from what i'm seeing, probably staying closer to low 40s than low 50s, even with no precip. Robert, are you talking daytime highs? That's some bust. Like 20 degrees worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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