buckeyefan1 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I've got you beat by a ton... TOTAL PRECIP: 0.02 " and Convective: 0 " Just a quick update on where we might go from here. This weekend is the one both GFS and ECMWF had a big cold shot for the Southeast, esp TN-NC, where they had highs in 30's (even 20's for TN). Obviously they overdid the cold outbreak at 10 days. However, we still don't have a major warm up coming, but it will be a few degrees warmer than average by mid to late week as the Southwest system takes a trip to the lakes, putting us in strong southwest flow aloft and 850's increasing somewhat. Right now, we have a strong southern stream of el nino type moisture which , combined with high pressure to the north, and producing northeasterly surface winds, will keep our surface temps in check for a few days. Notice the high cirrus, and filtered sunshine lately? After the next system goes by (with a frontal passage and showers here) later next week, the models all build a ridge in the eastern Pac next to the West Coast, and it looks to become very active. A huge chunk of bitter cold air gets pushed down from Canada and into the US in association with the PV, and the lakes system may bomb out somewhat in eastern Canada, setting up a fujiwara effect in central and Eastern Canada, which actually helps develop atleast some ridging for Greenland. If we ever got into a Neg. NAO pattern strongly like last year at this time, we'd be heading for an epic, once in a lifetime series of Winter storms for the southern third of the nation with continuous cold air, and nearly continuous overrunning events, mostly in the frozen form well to the South. But as it stands, we can't get all that cold yet thanks to too much troughing out in the Southwest, however that might be changing some, and finally allow a decent cold outbreak to penetrate further south and be more widespread. Considering even so far how the models are overdoing southeast ridging, and we're getting that much deeper in the Winter, it looks pretty exciting for something to begin showing up again. Several strong disturbances, some will be closed upper lows , some just regular southwest troughs, should try to shoot northeast into the heartland and Northeast, but they may be deflected more southerly since the PV is in eastern Canada and strong high pressure could be situated in the Plains, its' all about timing in the day 7+ time frame , and thats' a crap shoot. I still say odds are higher than usual for us to get a Winter Event since we simply have more s/w in the flow than normal, rather than one every 10 to 14 days like we get in a typical Winter, we have them atleast once a week, and possibly once every 5 days. All models have cold air getting really close to penetrating the Upper Southeast and some overrunning after we get past the next Lakes cutter, so that's when the time frame to watch. With all the action in the flow it still looks very interesting and will have threats to follow. Even though it's not cold, we're getting colder and colder shots, and should continue more and more despite the bad AO and NAO signs, so by later this month or in January I don't see how we avoid a significant, if not major Winter storm in the Southeast, considering how active we are. the NAM has some light precip developing in the Southeast early Monday. So far nobody else is buying (see the 50's in the forecast) but with clouds, northeast winds and the location of the high, and the chance at light precip, looks quite dammed up Monday to me. So far the GFS isn't breaking out the precip but clouds will probably ensure a chilly, cloudy Monday . If the NAM is right, northern Foothills of NC might flirt with freezing drizzle early and staying in the 40's for highs in much of central north GA to the interior Carolinas. I've been watching this, but not a lot of moisture to work with here, but I will enjoy the cool and cloudy conditions with a nice ne breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Looks like the GFS puts a kabosh on the warm parade Monday. A 1036 high in eastern PA and northeasterly surface winds in a damming fashion. The surface freezing line gets down to I-40 in NC with light drizzle. I had a couple friends who saw the progs a few days ago and said we could have flip flops and bbq's this week. I still don't see that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 So now both NAM and GFS have temps in the mid 40's for ne Ga and central/western Carolinas Monday. A nice 1036 high parked around Delaware or DC region midday Monday.....chilly! I think I saw temps forecast in the mid 50's from ATL to CLT region, that should be changing soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 The primary warming is due mid to late week. There are going to be a lot of 60s around again especially on this side of the Apps. I am not sure why anyone thought it was going to be all that warm on Monday. I agree with you on undercutting temps on the east side of the Apps for Mon...perhaps the timing was faster in the models a few days ago. But to your point about torching...the active pattern will keep most of that at bay...December will likely average slightly above normal the way it looks now, but with some prominent national forecasters, December was analoged with Dec 2000 and that will end up a pretty bad forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Well the GFS has two lake cutters now and no gulf development. I'll keep waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Well the GFS has two lake cutters now and no gulf development. I'll keep waiting... till the next run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 For what it's worth, the 12z gfs has wetbulbs very close to freezing across NE ga and even below freezing in the upstate monday morning. Nam is quite a bit warmer. IF the gfs wetbulbs is right and IF there is enough precip, could see some very light freezing rain in the extreme NE corner of Ga and parts of the upstate monday morning. I think it's a very low probability of it happening though and won't last long even if it happens...and there probably won't be enough precip to allow enough wetbulbing anyway (and if the nam is right temps/wetbulbs won't be cold enough anyway),...regardlesst it looks like a raw day monday for sure as others have noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Great day today here in the NC High Country with temperatures 22-23 early this afternoon on the ridgelines. The ski slopes are blowing the snow! Will be on the slopes later this afternoon and this evening under the Advent full moon! Enjoy the day buds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 For what it's worth, the 12z gfs has wetbulbs very close to freezing across NE ga and even below freezing in the upstate monday morning. Nam is quite a bit warmer. IF the gfs wetbulbs is right and IF there is enough precip, could see some very light freezing rain in the extreme NE corner of Ga and parts of the upstate monday morning. I think it's a very low probability of it happening though and won't last long even if it happens...and there probably won't be enough precip to allow enough wetbulbing anyway (and if the nam is right temps/wetbulbs won't be cold enough anyway),...regardlesst it looks like a raw day monday for sure as others have noted. I think I see a CAD signature on the 12Z GFS peaking in my neck of the woods from Monday morning through Tuesday morning. The GFS has been hinting at this for a few days now. I would love to see a CAD day at the beginning of next week. Makes it feel like Christmas imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Found this from a well known met this afternoon.... True arctic air will be involved and I believe the day 6-10 numbers on the models are not catching what is going to happen here , as a major high pressure builds into the northern plains next weekend and sticks a nose south down the plains and east toward the lakes. It will mean some ugly weather from the southern and central rockies to the interior mid and north atlantic states next weekend into the following week with snow and ice a problem. The details are tough. There will again be a front runner cutting for the lakes later in the week but subsequent waves following will be further south and east. But this will beat numbers bigtime. Snow/Ice may not get this far south, But seems He is thinking like Robert on the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Getting a little chilly already in Weaverville tonight. 33.9 at 6:00 pm. Forecast low is 23, if the wind stays light I think we will beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 It's colder than a penguin's a$$hole currently...24.7. Looking to drop down to around 17 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 It's colder than a penguin's a$$hole currently...24.7. Looking to drop down to around 17 tonight. I'd pay a significant sum of money to hear Cantore on a live report describe the weather like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Gonna be a cold night, down to 30 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Found this from a well known met this afternoon.... True arctic air will be involved and I believe the day 6-10 numbers on the models are not catching what is going to happen here , as a major high pressure builds into the northern plains next weekend and sticks a nose south down the plains and east toward the lakes. It will mean some ugly weather from the southern and central rockies to the interior mid and north atlantic states next weekend into the following week with snow and ice a problem. The details are tough. There will again be a front runner cutting for the lakes later in the week but subsequent waves following will be further south and east. But this will beat numbers bigtime. Snow/Ice may not get this far south, But seems He is thinking like Robert on the pattern. yea he is been saying it is going to be mild all winter and we will get nothing. He said West VA was going to get 6-10 inches , at best they got 4 inches. i saw it myself on the way to Pittsburgh. He missed the Arkansas snow until the last minute. Looks like Robert is kicking his butt on forecasting. He said yesterday that he thought it would be warmer by now but said it will colder first. Way different than his first winter forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Woo. Cold cold cold! 21 degrees already. They were calling for a low 23 around here. I think we will be in the low to mid teens tomorrow morning. Had a high of 35 today. Still snow on the ground in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Woo. Cold cold cold! 21 degrees already. They were calling for a low 23 around here. I think we will be in the low to mid teens tomorrow morning. Had a high of 35 today. Still snow on the ground in places. What torch? If you call close 10 degrees above normal for Low and High temps a torch then we have had a few of those this month already around the southeast and a string of about 5 or more coming for midweek. Even my forecast low of 29 which would be about the coldest of the season is only 4 degrees below average around here. It hit 52 today in Marietta, sure that's cool but only three below normal. The problem so far is the above average temps are really way above both lows and highs and when we get a cold night we end up with what we have tonight, 4 degrees below normal for a couple days followed by many days of temp running close to +10 day and night. I don't think we are torching, I actually don't think I've heard anyone say the Southeast has torched, but we certainly have been slightly above normal most of the past two months on average. I'm actually not sure why the word torch keeps getting brought up, people with their warm forecasts certainly are not the ones using it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 January 2002 was a prime example of a torch. I was wearing flip flops around campus and I think it was mid 70s. That is a torch. This stretch is enjoyable. Sure 60s are above average but there not miserable. I find the variability great. I was also recalling the winter of 07/08. It might have been the year before but it was a nina. The winter finished above average but overall it just felt cold. We had some great arctic outbreaks but it got warm too. Goes to show,at least in my mind, that the monthly averages dont always give an accurate display of how the overall feel of the winter was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 If you call close 10 degrees above normal for Low and High temps a torch then we have had a few of those this month already around the southeast and a string of about 5 or more coming for midweek. Even my forecast low of 29 which would be about the coldest of the season is only 4 degrees below average around here. It hit 52 today in Marietta, sure that's cool but only three below normal. The problem so far is the above average temps are really way above both lows and highs and when we get a cold night we end up with what we have tonight, 4 degrees below normal for a couple days followed by many days of temp running close to +10 day and night. I don't think we are torching, I actually don't think I've heard anyone say the Southeast has torched, but we certainly have been slightly above normal most of the past two months on average. I'm actually not sure why the word torch keeps getting brought up, people with their warm forecasts certainly are not the ones using it. I suppose most of the SE have had temps above normal most of this month. In my neck of the woods i have not. There have been some day that are above but not a whole lot. Our average high this time of the year is 51 and our ave low is 30. Also living at 3500 feet helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Pole Cats are putting it down at App Ski Mountain tonight 22 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Pole Cats are putting it down at App Ski Mountain tonight 22 degrees great night for it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Nice south TX is getting some rain boy they sure need it! the week leading up to christmas day looks like some fun and games maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 GFS and NAM look really chilly for interior Carolinas and north Ga on Monday. Part of ne Alabama as well. Depends on where drizzle forms. NC mountains may play with freezing drizzle at some point. The highs monday shouldn't get to mid 50's, like some forecasts have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 GFS and NAM look really chilly for interior Carolinas and north Ga on Monday. Part of ne Alabama as well. Depends on where drizzle forms. NC mountains may play with freezing drizzle at some point. The highs monday shouldn't get to mid 50's, like some forecasts have here. freezing drizzle does not sound fun especially after a cold weekend up here when we have temps for highs in the 30s and lows in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 A nippy 21 this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Old and new runs of op. ECMWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Down to 22.0 currently. That's the coldest reading of the season so far for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Old and new runs of op. ECMWF Much stronger low in the SW and the SE ridge was flattened into the Gulf. That should allow colder air to sink a little further southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Not a good look on the 0Z Euro...the phasing and the strong +PNA look disappear as does the Arctic intrusion into the central plains. Only a brief fropa out at that range in the SE and a quick return to aboves for most of us. At least another blast of Arctic air even as it modified coming across the east might have left hope for some interesting weather...but ensemble support remains strong for aboves to much aboves through the Christmas season. Those of you who are upset by this keep in mind that the heart of winter and best chances for cold and snow usually are well into Jan and Feb...it is not over until it is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Old and new runs of op. ECMWF Well that was most interesting.....big ridge in SE....then squash! Which one to believe??? Model madness ensues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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