griteater Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Can someone that is familiar with the current weather pattern in S. Florida tell me what I can expect in Ft Lauderdale this weekend? I am heading down for the Eagles game and was expecting mostly sunny and warm, but now it appears due to the easterly winds from the front backing back west I can expect some fairly crappy weather? From Miami NWS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=FL&prodtype=discussion#AFDMFL DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUPPORTING THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH RIDGE AXIS SITUATED OVER S FL. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS QUICKLY VEERED TO THE NE BEHIND YESTERDAY`S WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND MODERATE NE FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ENHANCING CLOUD COVERAGE AND A FEW SHRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT NUMERICAL POP GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY THE MESO BIASED MET NUMBERS) FOR THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 5K FT AND THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP. For Miami: .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 80. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS 67 TO 71. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 OK, is anyone else seeing anything like this in NC. I just saw a post from one of my Facebook friends with a picture of this Iris in front of her house that was taken yesterday. She made a comment that last year it was not until late March when her irises were in bloom. Another person posted a comment saying that a couple of Cherry trees at Friendly Center in Greensboro are in full bloom now. I have only been checking the forum from time to time, because I honestly don't want to hear about all of the Winter weather I may be missing this year. Has it really been that warm of late or does anyone else know of another explanation? There were some previous posts saying that there are Cherry trees that bloom in the fall / December....iris must be predicting a winter long +AO, cause it hasn't been way above normal enough to warrant crazy plant sightings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Can someone that is familiar with the current weather pattern in S. Florida tell me what I can expect in Ft Lauderdale this weekend? I am heading down for the Eagles game and was expecting mostly sunny and warm, but now it appears due to the easterly winds from the front backing back west I can expect some fairly crappy weather? Everything for the southeast here: http://www.daculaweather.com/forecast_prod_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Has anyone seen this?? http://firsthandweat...ecember-17-2011 Nice find! The pattern is alive with possibilities these days....I hope this is one that pans out Not as nice a compact system on the 12z as it has been, but that means nothing this far out. Be interesting to see what it looks like after the weekend. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Everything for the southeast here: http://www.daculawea...prod_master.php Thanks for the replies dacula and griteater. I read the NWS discussion already, I guess what I was wondering is if anyone from the area can give me a general idea and what I can expect with such a setup. Meaning, how much cloud cover versus sunshine; can one expect the period to be mostly dry and warm; will it be miserable (washout); things like that. Being from the PHL area I know an easterly wind in these parts can mean horrible conditions, just wondering what it means for S. Florida. Hoping I will be fine in shorts and will be able to spend time at the bars out doors most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Thanks for the replies dacula and griteater. I read the NWS discussion already, I guess what I was wondering is if anyone from the area can give me a general idea and what I can expect with such a setup. Meaning, how much cloud cover versus sunshine; can one expect the period to be mostly dry and warm; will it be miserable (washout); things like that. Being from the PHL area I know an easterly wind in these parts can mean horrible conditions, just wondering what it means for S. Florida. Hoping I will be fine in shorts and will be able to spend time at the bars out doors most of the time Sounds like the NE flow is going to lead to partly to mostly cloudy conditions with the threat for some stray showers. There is an Oct-Dec Florida topic on the SE Forum page...you might post it in there and get some help from the S Florida locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 That's actually a good question. You know more than some... The textbook La Nina would be drier than normal from DC down into the Southeast. One can look for above normal temps in the Southeast too. The cause of both is a mean ridge over the Southeast. Of course it varies with other patterns discussed on this board and elsewhere. This year the mean ridge has at times shifted north to the mid-Atlantic or even Northeast. It allows closed lows to sneak in on the under side of the ridge. Other times the Ohio Valley track, more typical of La Nina, has simply wandered east a bit. Despite the sometimes unsettled weather, the textbook warm temperature anomaly has come through in the mid-South and mid-Atlantic. The precipitation anomaly is not to be confused with an El Nino type response. We are still enjoying many sunny days between systems, in contrast to dreary El Nino years under an active subtropical jet. Overall this is indeed a La Nina pattern. Thanks so much. Now, I know..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Nice find! The pattern is alive with possibilities these days....I hope this is one that pans out Not as nice a compact system on the 12z as it has been, but that means nothing this far out. Be interesting to see what it looks like after the weekend. T I don't know if you noticed the comments under the article by Joe Bastardi. He's backing up the long-term forecast of the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I don't know if you noticed the comments under the article by Joe Bastardi. He's backing up the long-term forecast of the potential. The guy who wrote the article is Joe's son, and about 15 years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The guy who wrote the article is Joe's son, and about 15 years old. I gotcha. I guess being around his Dad for a while he's picked up a few things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 No, his sons name is garret. Len wrote the post. Don't know who that is. The guy who wrote the article is Joe's son, and about 15 years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 No, his sons name is garret. Len wrote the post. Don't know who that is. My mistake, you are correct. Garrett writes for that blog/site also, I saw a few articles written by Garrett today. Len Holiday shares the last name of the guy who started the site, Matthew Holliday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 My mistake, you are correct. Garrett writes for that blog/site also, I saw a few articles written by Garrett today. Len Holiday shares the last name of the guy who started the site, Matthew Holliday. Does Len Holiday have a grasp on what he's talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Does Len Holiday have a grasp on what he's talking about? I have no idea tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I don't know when it will happen, but the pattern supports it happening sometime this Winter I think. Big snowstorm. http://shelbyweather...49945&type=POST Hmmm - I clicked on the link and got this... Invalid securityToken. Error 403 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I did also. But, if you search on yahoo/google for shelby weather blog spot it will take you to his blog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The amount of closed lows on the 12Z Euro OP and the 18Z GFS is bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I get all giddy when I see a stalled front.....if it is stalled near me. If something comes in from the Pac. it can find me all the better. Dang, I love a stalled front in winter..with cut offs..it's like a lighthouse! Come on gulf low...I'll hope to leave the light on for you T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECUPiratewx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Does Len Holiday have a grasp on what he's talking about? I have no idea tbh. I don't like to add too much, as I rarely have valuable input...but I can say that Matt Holiday was dead on about the Christmas storm last year (and among the first to call it...stuck with it the whole time). Kinda reading in between the lines, Joe says that Len "did a good job" with his son, so possibly Len is Matts dad. At the very least, he's older and experienced. Firsthand Weather actually did a great job about a week in advance of all the major winter events last year. Now mind you, that doesn't make them right this time or this winter, but thought I'd throw that out there for folks. No need to get real excited yet, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I don't like to add too much, as I rarely have valuable input...but I can say that Matt Holiday was dead on about the Christmas storm last year (and among the first to call it...stuck with it the whole time). Kinda reading in between the lines, Joe says that Len "did a good job" with his son, so possibly Len is Matts dad. At the very least, he's older and experienced. Firsthand Weather actually did a great job about a week in advance of all the major winter events last year. Now mind you, that doesn't make them right this time or this winter, but thought I'd throw that out there for folks. No need to get real excited yet, at least. Appreciate the input. I guess we'll have to see if pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I did also. But, if you search on yahoo/google for shelby weather blog spot it will take you to his blog. TY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm tired of seeing this... TOTAL PRECIP: 0.00 " and Convective: 0 ".....for the next 180 hrs....sigh.....but this gives me hope .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... FORECAST KEEPS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPS MONDAY WITH WEAK WEDGE TYPE SETUP. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH CLEAR SKIES OUT BY MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOW 12Z EURO IS OUTLIER KEEPING MOISTURE AROUND THROUGH MONDAY. DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES GENERALLY KEPT GOING FORECAST WITH LITTLE TWEAKS TOWARD BLEND OF FRESHER GUIDANCE. CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER AS MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TOWARD THE EAST AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT FRIDAY INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH GFS AND EURO BOTH SHOWING A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND COLD FRONT WITH DECENT MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 huge ring around the moon. Probably nothing to it this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 huge ring around the moon. Probably nothing to it this year Yep. Saw that too in Cary. Forgot the wives tale around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm tired of seeing this... TOTAL PRECIP: 0.00 " and Convective: 0 ".....for the next 180 hrs....sigh.....but this gives me hope I've got you beat by a ton... TOTAL PRECIP: 0.02 " and Convective: 0 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Just a quick update on where we might go from here. This weekend is the one both GFS and ECMWF had a big cold shot for the Southeast, esp TN-NC, where they had highs in 30's (even 20's for TN). Obviously they overdid the cold outbreak at 10 days. However, we still don't have a major warm up coming, but it will be a few degrees warmer than average by mid to late week as the Southwest system takes a trip to the lakes, putting us in strong southwest flow aloft and 850's increasing somewhat. Right now, we have a strong southern stream of el nino type moisture which , combined with high pressure to the north, and producing northeasterly surface winds, will keep our surface temps in check for a few days. Notice the high cirrus, and filtered sunshine lately? After the next system goes by (with a frontal passage and showers here) later next week, the models all build a ridge in the eastern Pac next to the West Coast, and it looks to become very active. A huge chunk of bitter cold air gets pushed down from Canada and into the US in association with the PV, and the lakes system may bomb out somewhat in eastern Canada, setting up a fujiwara effect in central and Eastern Canada, which actually helps develop atleast some ridging for Greenland. If we ever got into a Neg. NAO pattern strongly like last year at this time, we'd be heading for an epic, once in a lifetime series of Winter storms for the southern third of the nation with continuous cold air, and nearly continuous overrunning events, mostly in the frozen form well to the South. But as it stands, we can't get all that cold yet thanks to too much troughing out in the Southwest, however that might be changing some, and finally allow a decent cold outbreak to penetrate further south and be more widespread. Considering even so far how the models are overdoing southeast ridging, and we're getting that much deeper in the Winter, it looks pretty exciting for something to begin showing up again. Several strong disturbances, some will be closed upper lows , some just regular southwest troughs, should try to shoot northeast into the heartland and Northeast, but they may be deflected more southerly since the PV is in eastern Canada and strong high pressure could be situated in the Plains, its' all about timing in the day 7+ time frame , and thats' a crap shoot. I still say odds are higher than usual for us to get a Winter Event since we simply have more s/w in the flow than normal, rather than one every 10 to 14 days like we get in a typical Winter, we have them atleast once a week, and possibly once every 5 days. All models have cold air getting really close to penetrating the Upper Southeast and some overrunning after we get past the next Lakes cutter, so that's when the time frame to watch. With all the action in the flow it still looks very interesting and will have threats to follow. Even though it's not cold, we're getting colder and colder shots, and should continue more and more despite the bad AO and NAO signs, so by later this month or in January I don't see how we avoid a significant, if not major Winter storm in the Southeast, considering how active we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Very well written. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Thanks for the update Robert, Very good read. Now let's get past that Lake's Cutter and see if it can set the stage??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 the NAM has some light precip developing in the Southeast early Monday. So far nobody else is buying (see the 50's in the forecast) but with clouds, northeast winds and the location of the high, and the chance at light precip, looks quite dammed up Monday to me. So far the GFS isn't breaking out the precip but clouds will probably ensure a chilly, cloudy Monday . If the NAM is right, northern Foothills of NC might flirt with freezing drizzle early and staying in the 40's for highs in much of central north GA to the interior Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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