Gastonwxman Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 You got to love how much of a teaser the 18z GFS is with a system that it predicts next weekend. Brad mentioned it earlier on the news that it may be something to keep an eye on but just a slim chance at best for anything wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I don't know when it will happen, but the pattern supports it happening sometime this Winter I think. Big snowstorm. http://shelbyweather.blogspot.com/b/post-preview?token=1Qr4ITQBAAA.XY6tG3De4LXcIlHiKVO29Q.yytN2DSp99UrnTN__cx5hA&postId=229485395804549945&type=POST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I don't know when it will happen, but the pattern supports it happening sometime this Winter I think. Big snowstorm. http://shelbyweather...49945&type=POST Great write up Robert! I'm with you all the way on this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I agree 100% on the southest getting a big snow. If the pattern keeps setting up the lows coming through the south and We see some blocking we could get hammered. My thinkging we may not be as cold as last winter but we will have a winter. It has already proven we will see snow as i still have snow in my yard from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I don't know when it will happen, but the pattern supports it happening sometime this Winter I think. Big snowstorm. http://shelbyweather...49945&type=POST Go Robert! Go Robert! Somehow I just feel you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Great write up Robert! I'm with you all the way on this winter! +1. Couldn't agree more. Forget the NAO, pacific e.t.c. Just keep the ULL's coming and the odds are strongly in our favor. 34 IMBY at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Great write up Robert! I'm with you all the way on this winter! +1. Couldn't agree more. Forget the NAO, pacific e.t.c. Just keep the ULL's coming and the odds are strongly in our favor. 34 IMBY at the moment +2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 +3 You got my vote! Nice right up. I am not counting on seeing snow until we get to 2012. I have been in GA since 1980. I just believe we normally don't see our chances until January arrives. There a few years I have seen snow the week leading up to Christmas. Anyone have a list of all the snow storms that have hit GA sorted by date? +2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Great write up Robert! I'm with you all the way on this winter! Me too!! Big time. Robert can sure stir the weenie soul when he speechifies I'm ready to go outside and wait, lol. I remember years in the 60's with bone chilling dry cold. You couldn't buy a drop of rain. I much prefer a nice roller coaster, with the gradual rampdown of the temps into the dips thru Christmas. Many more chances that way. I love cold, and that Feb we had two years ago was amazing to me, but being dry like that takes half the fun away. I'd rather have repeated shots of rain and wait for timing. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 +3 You got my vote! Nice right up. I am not counting on seeing snow until we get to 2012. I have been in GA since 1980. I just believe we normally don't see our chances until January arrives. There a few years I have seen snow the week leading up to Christmas. Anyone have a list of all the snow storms that have hit GA sorted by date? +4 ---- Great write up! Always enjoy (and learn from) your thoughts and observations. Keep'um comin'! Just figure out a way to drop that snow line a couple hundred miles and it would be epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I don't know when it will happen, but the pattern supports it happening sometime this Winter I think. Big snowstorm. http://shelbyweather...49945&type=POST Excellent article Robert!! I truly understand what you are saying and can see this happening in the Jan/Feb time frame when we have an arctic outbreak with some Cad as a back up. I would give up a couple of 3-5" snows for one monster personally for here! Thanks for giving us hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Shelby won't be in the bullseye, it will be Raleigh...actually, it will be Wildre's house I hope your post comes to fruition, Robert. Sounds good to me...Even though Nov and Dec has been pretty mild for NC, it hasn't for other states...so I agree that once we get some cold to support our area, we too can cash in and hopefully big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 very well put foothillsnc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 +3 You got my vote! Nice right up. I am not counting on seeing snow until we get to 2012. I have been in GA since 1980. I just believe we normally don't see our chances until January arrives. There a few years I have seen snow the week leading up to Christmas. Anyone have a list of all the snow storms that have hit GA sorted by date? Here are the dates for which I've found a 3.5" plus official ATL snow and/or sleet event since 3/1876 (35 of them or about one every four years): DEC: 2, 3-6, 11-13, 29 JAN: 1, 2-3, 7, 7-8, 9, 9-10, 12, 18, 18-19, 22, 23, 26, 28, 29-30 FEB: 10, 11-12, 11-12, 12, 15, 15-16, 17-18, 21, 23, 24-25, 26 MAR: 1, 2, 11, 13, 14, 24 Notice the five major clusters (my def. of major is three COMPLETE events within four days) (I didn't count 1/26-29 because the 1/29 event didn't end til 1/30 and most of it fell on 1/30 (I didn't count 2/21-24 because the 2/24 event didn't end til 2/25 and most of it fell on 2/25): JAN 7-10, FEB 10-12, FEB 15-18, FEB 23-26, and MAR 11-14. So, 3/11-14 has been just about as active a four day period for 3.5"+ snows as any throughout the winters going back to 1876! Also, note the lack of major DEC. snows. Notice that I found ZERO 3.5"+ snow/sleet events since 1876 for the intervals 12/14-28 and 1/31-2/9.!! ***Edit: We've had three winters in a row with a major S/IP. This ties the three winter in a row record set in 1892-3 through 1894-5 although there were actually four storms during that three year period. If we can get a major S/IP this winter, it would set a new record of four winters in a row, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 A little something showing up on the 0z gfs long range...NE is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Thanks, Larry. I've always like Feb. for my storms! Do you remember, off hand, what month those two great sleets in the 70's were? Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Thanks, Larry. I've always like Feb. for my storms! Do you remember, off hand, what month those two great sleets in the 70's were? Tony 2/1979 and 1/1988 are the ones I know, each one producing an incredible official 4" of IP at KATL!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Is there a reason why there have been more major snow/sleet events in March than Dec, even though Dec is a much colder month ? Go to the other thread where you first asked a similar Q about Dec. vs. Feb. and I answered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I don't know when it will happen, but the pattern supports it happening sometime this Winter I think. Big snowstorm. http://shelbyweather...49945&type=POST Here are the snowfall totals for the GSP area for the events you noted: I really hope we all get a event like one of these you listed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 2/1979 and 1/1988 are the ones I know, each one producing an incredible official 4" of IP at KATL!!!! Thank you, sir! There was one earlier, but it may not have classified as a major. Gulf low that gave a lot of rain...maybe 2 inches? Then turned to sleet at day break and gave maybe a few to 3 inches? I remember deeper, but you know........., lol. I remember Guy Sharp was surprised It was border line cold so it was slushy with all that rain, and didn't all last the day, as I recall. 79 started as snow and I remember wishing hard for it to turn to sleet so we could go sledding. I was living in the middle of Buckhead and they would tear snow up and make it hopeless for street sledding. That 79 storm was the ultimate in Atl. street sledding. I hope to see another like it before I'm too old to get back up the hill T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Question for Robert or any other met who sees the post. IF this progressive pattern that we have been in develops blocking, does that necessarily mean that the closed lows we have been seeing fade off ? I know these types of lows don't usually continue through the winter months so just a random question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 A year ago yesterday was the second coldest day I have seen since moving here from Florida in June, 2009. It was 9 degrees, and my car radiator froze... big bummer! The next day was 13, my lake froze over on the 10th, and 4" of snow fell on the 12th. The low for the entire season was 5 degrees on Dec. 15th. The last two mornings was 29, and my low for this season is 23 on Dec. 1. What a difference a year makes, but I'm not complaining. This is still Heaven on Earth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 OK, is anyone else seeing anything like this in NC. I just saw a post from one of my Facebook friends with a picture of this Iris in front of her house that was taken yesterday. She made a comment that last year it was not until late March when her irises were in bloom. Another person posted a comment saying that a couple of Cherry trees at Friendly Center in Greensboro are in full bloom now. I have only been checking the forum from time to time, because I honestly don't want to hear about all of the Winter weather I may be missing this year. Has it really been that warm of late or does anyone else know of another explanation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 This comes out monthly http://www.daculaweather.com/climate_summary.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Can someone that is familiar with the current weather pattern in S. Florida tell me what I can expect in Ft Lauderdale this weekend? I am heading down for the Eagles game and was expecting mostly sunny and warm, but now it appears due to the easterly winds from the front backing back west I can expect some fairly crappy weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Has anyone seen this?? http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/snowstorm-southeast-set-december-17-2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 My weather knowledge is probably the weakest of anyone on this board, so please bear with my question. I thought that La Nina years generally translate to very dry winters. However, this year's and last year's winters have been rather wet to at least near average. In fact, this month is the wettest month between October and March in DCA history. What overall factor is causing it be a rather wet La Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Question for Robert or any other met who sees the post. IF this progressive pattern that we have been in develops blocking, does that necessarily mean that the closed lows we have been seeing fade off ? I know these types of lows don't usually continue through the winter months so just a random question. Good Question...I've seen other comments saying La-nina's are dry winters and yet we keep seeing one ull after another...I love this pattern right now and hope it stays this way myself...As Robert has said eventually someone is gonna get hammered..Sure it may melt away in a few days but in another week you may get hammered again... Long live the ull.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Just had a real quick 2 minute heavy shower pass through. 10 degrees colder and it coulda been a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 That's actually a good question. You know more than some... My weather knowledge is probably the weakest of anyone on this board, so please bear with my question. I thought that La Nina years generally translate to very dry winters. However, this year's and last year's winters have been rather wet to at least near average. In fact, this month is the wettest month between October and March in DCA history. What overall factor is causing it be a rather wet La Nina? The textbook La Nina would be drier than normal from DC down into the Southeast. One can look for above normal temps in the Southeast too. The cause of both is a mean ridge over the Southeast. Of course it varies with other patterns discussed on this board and elsewhere. This year the mean ridge has at times shifted north to the mid-Atlantic or even Northeast. It allows closed lows to sneak in on the under side of the ridge. Other times the Ohio Valley track, more typical of La Nina, has simply wandered east a bit. Despite the sometimes unsettled weather, the textbook warm temperature anomaly has come through in the mid-South and mid-Atlantic. The precipitation anomaly is not to be confused with an El Nino type response. We are still enjoying many sunny days between systems, in contrast to dreary El Nino years under an active subtropical jet. Overall this is indeed a La Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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