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My buddy up on Frosty Mountain now reporting 32° but the snow has slowed up a lot.

He lives on Frosty? I've been up there a few times and never seen anything but an old firetower slab. I know of one cabin close to it. Cool that it's snowing though. I've camped around there on some wild nights.

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I think the winds out here are even stronger than they were when the sun was setting. Now down to 46. I can hear several snaps of small branches all around me and a constant pounding noise against the side of my house (I have siding). Something has obviously came loose and now the winds are making it worse. Going to be fun clearing away whatever is scattered tomorrow. axesmiley.png

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From BMX this morning....definitely something to watch....as Foothills mentioned, the GFS has not been to shabby at picking up on these systems lately.....

THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC

LOW AND BRINGS THEM RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY.

Kinda the same from FFC

OPERATIONAL GFS TRYING TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW ACROSS TX

AND THEN BRING IT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WHILE ECMWF AND GFS

ENSEMBLES HAVE MORE OF AN OPEN-WAVE...NORTHERN U.S. TRACK. I LIKE

THE LATTER SCENARIO BUT EITHER WAY...FIRST SIGNIFICANT POPS FOR

GEORGIA WILL APPEAR IN THE FORECAST STARTING WEDNESDAY.

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According to the 6z GFS, the 10m 0z line dips over my head on Dec. 12. Then, it doesn't get south of me through the rest of the run! That's 12 more days! I wonder when was the last time a model has depicted that type of warmth in December?

I'm afraid we all need to get our arms around the reality that this pattern might not EVER change and if it does, it's going to be sometime in January. One thing I've learned about these pattern changes is when they finally start showing up in the Day 10+ range, there is usually a week or two delay.

And we haven't even gotten the pattern change (if there is one) to show up yet!

What an ugly, ugly pattern.....

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From BMX this morning....definitely something to watch....as Foothills mentioned, the GFS has not been to shabby at picking up on these systems lately.....

THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC

LOW AND BRINGS THEM RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY.

I love these lows. Two snows in two weeks! What torch. I have over 2 inches on the ground and the temp is 19 degrees!

More of this is coming. I won't be surprised to see it snow again before Christmas in part of the Southeast. And when we finally have really cold air to work with, watch out. The November and Dec. storms have been teasers.

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post-38-0-10093400-1323347839.gif

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RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

622 AM EST THU DEC 8 2011

..NEW DAILY MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 7

THE PRECIPITATION THAT FELL YESTERDAY SET NEW DAILY MAXIMUM

PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR DECEMBER 7 AT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS. IN

LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA...A TOTAL OF 1.80 INCHES FELL...WHICH BREAKS THE

OLD RECORD OF 1.13 INCHES SET IN 1976. IN BLUEFIELD WEST

VIRGINIA...A TOTAL OF 1.71 INCHES FELL...WHICH BREAKS THE OLD RECORD

OF 0.72 INCHES SET IN 1996. FINALLY...IN BLACKSBURG VIRGINIA...A

TOTAL OF 1.45 INCHES FELL...WHICH BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.11

INCHES SET IN 1976.

Saw a few other daily rain records in the Midatlantic. Nice wet Nina going on.

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More of this is coming. I won't be surprised to see it snow again before Christmas in part of the Southeast. And when we finally have really cold air to work with, watch out. The November and Dec. storms have been teasers.

Yea that system on the 00z next week really blows up with moisture once it hits SC/NC. Might have to invest in a boat if that comes to pass.

wdOAU.png

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It's certainly interesting to see the GFS vs everyone else this morning in regards to the cut-off low next Thursday, that includes the GFS Ensemble. With the way the season has gone, and the recent track record of the GFS and it sniffing out these cut-off lows, I'm definitely taking note and will watch this unfold closely over the next few days. It's also funny to see the EURO with a big ole ridge building at hour 180 from last night's run...

post-1807-0-30399200-1323353795.jpg

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I saw Leconte reported 6" of new snow and a low of 7 degrees. I tried taking my wife and son on a hike out the the Jumpoff near Leconte last week. We got turned back by snow and ice on the trail. Any part of the trail on the north side of Stateline Ridge was very icy still.

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From BMX this morning....definitely something to watch....as Foothills mentioned, the GFS has not been to shabby at picking up on these systems lately.....

THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC

LOW AND BRINGS THEM RIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON THURSDAY.

Yeah, once Fide pointed that out some runs back I've been hoping it would stay on the model. Might be what gets us well going forward. Get a more southern track established and get us in the energy part of the game storm after storm. Lord know we've been beat up enough down here :) T

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Yeah, once Fide pointed that out some runs back I've been hoping it would stay on the model. Might be what gets us well going forward. Get a more southern track established and get us in the energy part of the game storm after storm. Lord know we've been beat up enough down here smile.png T

i just dont think it will track that far south maybe alittle to our north.. still hanging on hope it track south but i know we cant get that lucky

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