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There's just not enough cold air to make it much of anything outside of the higher elevations. We are going to have to wait a little longer.

I know the mountains are a lot to over come but DFW is getting a mix today and it's snowing in Odessa, which according to models there was not enough cold air. We'll see what the models say at 12z but it looks to me like this could be interesting come Thursday.

If any met wants to chime in and tell me what I'm not seeing, please tell me. I need all the help I can get.

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I know the mountains are a lot to over come but DFW is getting a mix today and it's snowing in Odessa, which according to models there was not enough cold air. We'll see what the models say at 12z but it looks to me like this could be interesting come Thursday.

If any met wants to chime in and tell me what I'm not seeing, please tell me. I need all the help I can get.

Funny thing is JB posted a video saying this on Saturday. Maybe he can get one right. What a surprise if it verifies

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Euro looked awfully close to snow for many in NC though sfc temps were a problem. Surprised there wasn't more discussion about it.

Looking at 850's, there is literally very little snow on the 0Z Euro outside of a little accumulating snow in the higher mountain elevations via the

backlash. Regarding the 0Z Euro's setup for the vast majority of NC, this is more of a cold enough air coming in after virtually all of the precip. is over kind of thing.

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Looking at 850's, there is literally very little snow on the 0Z Euro outside of a little accumulating snow in the higher mountain elevations via the

backlash. Regarding the 0Z Euro's setup for the vast majority of NC, this is more of a cold enough air coming in after virtually all of the precip. is over kind of thing.

I guess this is what I'm confused on. The setup looks almost identical to DFW today. You have just about the same 850 temps with the same SFC temps and they are expecting a mix with snow to the west. Why based on the Euro would we not get a mix in WNC? I know DFW is flat and doesn't have the mountains doing their thing....but with what looks to be the same temp profile what is the big difference? 2m dewpoints on the Euro are at around 32 - 40 with 850s sub freezing (GSO west)...with the qpf there wouldn't it be cold enough for at the least a mix since you would get some dynamic cooling?

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I guess this is what I'm confused on. The setup looks almost identical to DFW today. You have just about the same 850 temps with the same SFC temps and they are expecting a mix with snow to the west. Why based on the Euro would we not get a mix in WNC? I know DFW is flat and doesn't have the mountains doing their thing....but with what looks to be the same temp profile what is the big difference? 2m dewpoints on the Euro are at around 32 - 40 with 850s sub freezing (GSO west)...with the qpf there wouldn't it be cold enough for at the least a mix since you would get some dynamic cooling?

The bulk of the precip is over before 850's actually fall to 0C or below. That is the key. Keep in mind that the precip. maps cover the entire period back to the prior map whereas the 850's are as of the end of the period after it has cooled off.

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Euro looked awfully close to snow for many in NC though sfc temps were a problem. Surprised there wasn't more discussion about it.

None of us can really say how this winter is gonna pan out.

My hunch is with the current pattern, it is going to be tough to get solid cold air over the mountains.

I would be prepared for more of the same all winter unless we can get some type of stratospheric warming event to push the cold down and perhaps several weeks of negative NAO.

I am hoping for some more sustained cold, but I am prepared for just transient bursts of cold shots based on the way things currently look. Hopefully the timing will get right with some overrunning or a cut off low. We are blessed to have Robert in our group to keep us advised on when that will happen!

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The bulk of the precip is over before 850's actually fall to 0C or below. That is the key. Keep in mind that the precip. maps cover the entire period back to the prior map whereas the 850's are as of the end of the period after it has cooled off.

Gotcha. I completely understand the cold chasing the moisture. Guess just reading too much between the frames.

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Euro looked awfully close to snow for many in NC though sfc temps were a problem. Surprised there wasn't more discussion about it.

I was literally the only one online when I posted about it, besides a few lurkers no one was here to discuss it with me haha.

The bulk of the precip is over before 850's actually fall to 0C or below. That is the key. Keep in mind that the precip. maps cover the entire period back to the prior map whereas the 850's are as of the end of the period after it has cooled off.

Where do you get euro precip maps? I'm assuming from a private/paid source?

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Thanks guys. I do use wundermap but I was wondering outside of a snowfall map, the 6hr precip w/ an 850 line maps are what I'm looking for but I'm afriad they are still paid (stormvista, accuweather pro, etc)

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I was literally the only one online when I posted about it, besides a few lurkers no one was here to discuss it with me haha.

Where do you get euro precip maps? I'm assuming from a private/paid source?

Yes, the ones I use are private/paid..

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The NCEP GFS page is difficult and I may be crazy but the new GFS looks close to snow for Alabama and far NW GA this week. I'm sure the boundry layer is horrible but could somebody with real knowledge please chime in.

The 12Z gfs gives 2"+ of snow from a little E of Huntsville to just NW of Chattanooga as well as a sig. amount to the mtns. near the NC/TN border with heaviest in SW VA. This gives much more snow to those regions than the 0Z euro gave fwiw.

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Yes, private/paid..

Jon, wunderground has EC qpf panels at 3 hr intervals free... Toggle to models, then select ECMWF, play around with the outputs, think it is shown on the mslp map.

They started doing this over the summer, initial reaction was a freebe that they would eventually charge for. However, here we are, 4 months later and it still free/public. Output goes to 180hrs at t-steps of 3. There is also and output for Euro snowfall, someone already posted the links above. :-)

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Jon, wunderground has EC qpf panels at 3 hr intervals free... Toggle to models, then select ECMWF, play around with the outputs, think it is shown on the mslp map.

mslp map it is. Didn't realize, thank you much!

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Gotcha. I completely understand the cold chasing the moisture. Guess just reading too much between the frames.

The easiest way to discern if there is any precip. falling after the 850 reaches 0C is to just look at the subsequent frame and see if there is any qpf NW of where the 850 was located on the prior frame.

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  • 12Z Euro much more snow than 0Z Euro with it mostly in NW NC and NE TN mtns. and fairly similar to the 12Z GFS, which also had much more snow than its 0Z counterpart.

Edit: some light snow, though maybe not accumulating, also falls from near Huntsville to Chat. on this 12Z Euro run, which also is similar to the 12Z gfs.

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Does mother nature know something?

Cherry trees busting out in full bloom in Charlotte and Bradford Pear buds are swelling up.

Sent by a twitter feed user down in Charlotte

I saw that too. Some trees are budding. Perhaps it's because of the mild weather.

Edit: I think I found the tree and apparently this tree blooms in the fall to winter

http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/depts/hort/consumer/factsheets/trees-new/prunus_subhirtella_autum.html

Flower/Fruit: Flowers in fall, winter during warm spells, and early spring; rose buds open to soft pink single to semidouble flowers fading to almost white; .5" black fruit

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