Helpful Lists of Snowfall Maps & Text Data

[KokomoWX]

Forecasting Winter Precipitation

I am fairly unskilled with forecasting compared to many here but do enjoy weather including wintry precipitation. Like most, I want to know how much for IMBY (in my back yard). Asking that question is rather frustrating in the middle of a model discussion especially when you can look yourself. The problem is many do not know where to look or like me, can forget from time to time where to find the maps or text data.

With that said, I decided to make a list of the places I have found helpful when looking for the IMBY snow total.

To use many of these products, you will need to know your ICAO location. You can find that information here - http://www.nws.noaa....g/siteloc.shtml (Display all stations in a state.)

Text Products:

I really like text output for models. While maps can be pretty, for an IMBY total, a text product give accurate data and timing. (Of course text data is still subject to wild swings of model runs and is no more accurate the maps.)

GFS Sfc Parameters to 120 hours (0z & 12Z runs only) - http://wxcaster.com/models_text2.htm

NAM Sfc Parameters to 84 hours (0z & 12z plus off hour 6z & 18z) - http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

The Bufkit Warehouse is a great place to get data for Bufkit. If you are unfamiliar with Bufkit, it is a powerful forecasting tool for winter and severe weather. However it can be somewhat daunting to set up and use for the novice. At the Bufkit Warehouse, they make it easy by producing the Cobb Output for sites all over the US. The output is available for the latest two runs of the GFS & NAM plus the current RUC.

http://www.meteor.ia...en/bufkit/data/

Visual Hybrids:

Sometimes a visual representation of the data is helpful. (These are not maps.)

The Bufkit Warehouse mentioned above also allows you to Visualize Data! from the same place you select the Cobb Output. Here is an example link for IMBY - http://www.meteor.ia....phtml?site=gvs

Another place for visual data is Cool WX. Their selection of data location is rather limited but can still be useful. - http://coolwx.com/cg...rrent&field=DEF

Often overlooked is the Hourly Weather Graph from the NWS. Instead of raw model data which many times is nothing more than pure fantasy, the Hourly Weather Graph from the NWS is the result of a skilled forecaster from the local WFO reviewing all models and data and doing careful analysis. It is updated multiple times each day. Your find this information below your pinpoint forecasts under Additional Forecasts & Information.

Maps:

Maps are usually great to see a wider view of a storm but again, they just are just raw data plotted without any kind of analysis or check. They are many times referred to as clown maps as they usually do nothing more than feed the snow weenie in all of us. With that said, here are the snow maps...

WXCaster has the largest selection of maps available but they can be sometimes hard to navigate.

Full Continental US Maps for the GFS (120 hours), NAM (84 Hours) RUC, (12 hours) and GEM (120 Hours) can be found on this page. - http://wxcaster.com/conus_snowfall.htm Please note the 0z/12z runs of the NAM are at the top of the page while the 6z/18z runs of the NAM are near the bottom. The 0z/12z and 6z/18z of the GFS are together on the middle of the page. There is quite a bit to explore on this page but if you see a full US map labeled WeatherCaster/Harris, it came from this page.

There are regional snowfall maps also available on a seperate page too - http://wxcaster.com/...al_snowfall.htm In additional to the NAM, GFS, RUC, and GEM models, the 5km NMM and ARW WRF models are also available. The WRF models are out to 48 hours and are higly detailed in resolution.

The main model page at WXCaster has a lot of links to regional snowfall maps. The regions align to the NWS radar sites. It can be a bit confusing to find all of the maps on the main page so here are direct links to them.

NAM/GFS using a variable method to determine snow ratios:

NAM (0z/12z) - http://wxcaster.com/...ow-overlays.htm

NAM (6z/18z) - http://wxcaster.com/...w-overlays2.htm

GFS (0z/12z) - http://wxcaster.com/...ow-overlays.htm

GFS (6z/12z) - http://wxcaster.com/...w-overlays2.htm

NAM/GFS straight 10:1 snow ratio:

NAM (0z/12z) - http://wxcaster.com/...rlays_10to1.htm

NAM (6z/18z) - http://wxcaster.com/...lays2_10to1.htm

GFS (0z/12z) - http://wxcaster.com/...rlays_10to1.htm

GFS (6z/12z) - http://wxcaster.com/...lays2_10to1.htm

There are 5km nested regional overlays too for the NAM:

0z - http://wxcaster.com/...ays-5km_00z.htm

6z - http://wxcaster.com/...ays-5km_06z.htm

12z - http://wxcaster.com/...ays-5km_12z.htm

18z - http://wxcaster.com/...ays-5km_18z.htm

A recent edition to forecast maps at are Instant Weather Maps. It includes the NAM, GFS, & RUC. Select the model and Surface and then you can find the snowfall, surface depth, snow rates in three hour increments.

http://www.instantwe...s.com/index.php

Twister Data also has the NAM, GFS, and RUC snow maps. After selecting the model, look under winter for the snow maps.

http://www.twisterdata.com/

Advanced Maps:

The SPC which rely upon for severe weather forecasting also has the SERF model which can show a variety of winter weather parameters including snow listed under the Winter Weather options. (Select a model run first.)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/

European Model Data (ECMWF):

Data from the European has generally been unavailable to the public for free except for low resolution data in large time increments. There are several pay options available but for the average weenie, spending $30+ per month for access is usually not something considered. Recently Weather Underground has freely made detailed maps available in 3 hour increments out to 180 hours. You can find the ECMWF along with GFS, NAM, and RUC model data on the WunderMap. There is no free text data for the ECMWF.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Forecasting:

If you want to do some of your own forecasting, a nice tutorial for the non meteorologist can be found the Weather Prediction website. The lessons cover extended, short range, and nowcasting winter weather along with lake effect snow forecasting. I personally suggest lesson #5 on thickness criteria for anyone interested in forecasting snow. All of the maps you need are available at Instant Weather Maps or twister Data mentioned above.

http://www.theweathe...n.com/winterwx/

I hope this list is helpful. Please feel free to add your favorites knowing this list is not a comprehensive list for meteorologists but for the hobbyist or beginner.

[Thunder Road]

For the GFS, I like...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KVPZ (obviously you can change your location.)

Usually updates about 20 minutes after the run finishes.

[KokomoWX]

For the GFS, I like...

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KVPZ (obviously you can change your location.)

Usually updates about 20 minutes after the run finishes.

I do like that too but it doesn't show snow totals. One has to do a small amount of work to determine the snow totals. I wanted to keep things simple.

[snowlurker]

For the snow-starved looking for the next big (ahem, huge) score, follow the CPC 6-10 day analogs and 8-14 day analogs. If they list a NESIS event as an analogue, you are more likely to be paid back if you track a storm way out in the future. Wes once remarked (in not so many words) that these analogs help him discriminate between a real threat and a likely fantasy storm.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/analog.php (6-10 day analogs)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php (8-14 day analogs)

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/nesis.php (NESIS events)