Feb Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I didn't see any this year until this warm spell hit and the models seem to indicate December will be warm. Now they are coming out of the woodwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Tony, This year should be a very interesting case since we seemed to recover dramatically from below normal snow cover to above average at the turn of the month/first week of November. The Eurasian side specifically with the whole October snow/AO theory Yeah. I honestly don't know where (maybe better posted as when) the line in the sand gets drawn as being too late. The last two winters Eurasian snow cover was ahead of where we were this last October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 You missed my point...I simply asked if anyone on this board....Met or Amateur...is forecasting a mild winter in the east. I agree with you that La Nina pumps up the southeast ridge and tips the scales toward mild in the southeast. But it all depends on the NAO/AO which is nearly impossible to predict. My point is that it seems that everyone always goes for a colder and snowy winter than normal... especially in the Great Lakes and northeast. Is someone forecasting a mild winter in the northeast..I'll rephrase it. I don't know if someone is forecasting a warm winter for the Northeast, honestly I don't see too much of a reason to unless the SE ridge just goes insane or the AO/NAO go insanely positive which I don't see either of which happening collectively. Only the AO is positive right now in a large way, but we also aren't in winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I like these analogs now...they averaged almost three degrees above the long term average in NYC...snowfall is also on the light side but we are way a head of those years due to the October storm...If we get another storm like that in January it could be a blizzard...I think snowfall in my area will be below the long term but close to the 30 year normals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 not that it matters a whole lot because I didn't put as much time into this one as usual, but I went above normal http://fortysouthwx.com/index.php?/topic/2271-zwyts-2011-12-winter-outlook-for-dca/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I have yet to find a winter outlook that forecasts a mild winter for the eastern U.S. I may not have seen all of them but of all that I have seen, overwhelming everyone seems to be going for snowy and cold. This seems to be an annual occurrence too. I think it is wishcasting. Oh yeah, I forgot about CPC they seem to be the only ones who always go mild!! If you are forecasting a milder winter in the east, please post I would like to see your reasoning. roger smith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Very interesting. I went mild but changed the the forecast based on how fat the local squirrels are. I'm on thin ice this year but my original forecast found in the SNE sub forum had a warm December and mild february with cold January and March. But when the squirrels started becoming so porky, I reversed and just threw my hands up and said 150% of normal snow. This year is the test for this observation. But before the squirrels, I thought it would be mild with Boston getting 70% of normal snow. Now I've doubled that...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Looking at the current pattern and a weak LaNina, I am predicting a mild winter with below normal snow for the I-95 cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Everyone seems in panic about winter being a DUD in the east. Look winter is not for another couple of weeks. We all know that everyone has been spoiled to a couple of great winters recently. I still believe that winter will come, just coming a little late. "PATIENCE" and I hope no one take this the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Looking at the current pattern and a weak LaNina, I am predicting a mild winter with below normal snow for the I-95 cities. Havent they been above normal the past 2-3 winter seasons? I know, my area, for example was below normal the past 3 out of 4 winters with last year being the exception.. I also haven't seen any "winter cancel" posts from anyone, unless they are being deleted as they are posted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I plead not guilty, MILD / MILD / COLD ... so just a mild first two-thirds of winter. As shown in 2010, you can pack a lot of winter into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 08-09 was pretty close to average in the DJF period but featured one cold month and two pretty mild ones sandwiching it. A four week blocked pattern with -5 departures can pretty much nullify a 2/3rds mild winter in terms of how it looks statistically. The second year Nina winters typically have one cold month...consensus leans to January but it's not that case every year...and those cold months can end up making the winter average look decent when the other two months torch or are mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Havent they been above normal the past 2-3 winter seasons? I know, my area, for example was below normal the past 3 out of 4 winters with last year being the exception.. I also haven't seen any "winter cancel" posts from anyone, unless they are being deleted as they are posted lol. DC has been below normal for snowfall 7 of the last 8 years. Also, 17 of the last 21 years. Baltimore has also been below 7 of the past 8, and 18 of the past 23 years. Seems one would do well to forecast BN snow most of the time 'round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I have yet to find a winter outlook that forecasts a mild winter for the eastern U.S. I may not have seen all of them but of all that I have seen, overwhelming everyone seems to be going for snowy and cold. This seems to be an annual occurrence too. I think it is wishcasting. Oh yeah, I forgot about CPC they seem to be the only ones who always go mild!! If you are forecasting a milder winter in the east, please post I would like to see your reasoning. Seems like a baseless assertion to make. Most outlooks have been cold/snowy in the Northeast for the past few winters, but that's because the data indicated that type of winter was probable. For the 2008-2011 period, cold/snowy outlooks have verified. In addition, many of us forecasted a mild/less snow winter for 2007-08 and were correct. Of course you'll always get your minority of wishcasters out there who always go cold/snowy, but I believe that's a minority, at least on this particular weather board. To throw virtually everyone under the bus and say they're wishcasting is ignorant if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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