HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 http://www.examiner....nas-and-georgia Will post more updates in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Looks good Brandon. Look at the cold surface temps progged for the northern third of NC during the event. The models have been that way for a while now, speaking of thursday. I wonder if the 2m temps off Euro are right for the western part of NC and SC later Thursday. It may not be handlng the evaporative cooling properly, our dewpoints are going tobe extremely low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 http://www.examiner....nas-and-georgia Will post more updates in this thread. Looks good Thanks for your updates !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Looks good Thanks for your updates !!! thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Looks good Brandon. Look at the cold surface temps progged for the northern third of NC during the event. The models have been that way for a while now, speaking of thursday. I wonder if the 2m temps off Euro are right for the western part of NC and SC later Thursday. It may not be handlng the evaporative cooling properly, our dewpoints are going tobe extremely low. yea checkout how cold the sfc is at HKY airport when precip starts. -3C. To be honest, this gfs profile looks like mostly snow to me for hky. which would be probably 3 to 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 .4 QPF at RDU frozen is gonna result in some problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 .4 QPF at RDU frozen is gonna result in some problems heres the GFS dewpoints, and some 950 mb temps. Notice Wed. night the dewpoints in central and eastern NC are single digits to teens. I have a hard time seeing much warm up in NC at the surface on Thursday with the easterly winds progged, even some ne winds in the Upstate during the heart of the event. Regardless of which type of CAD , the models usually get rid of surface cold too quickly once its in place, esp. true in western and northern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 i really like the looks of this the for the northern foothills hopefully all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 All these threads got me going in 10 different directions, I've got the current Dec 11-13 obs thread, 12z EURO (main forum) and now three different Thursday threads all tabbed. Anyway...I agree Brandon, this is looking like at least an advisory level event as the 850's look more than sufficient and the QPF is about .40 (give or take a tenth.) I don't even want to imagine the scene around these parts if this afternoon's EURO verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The GFS looks good for even an inch or two of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I agree with threads issue!!! Might be in a good spot for this mid week system. All these threads got me going in 10 different directions, I've got the current Dec 11-13 obs thread, 12z EURO (main forum) and now three different Thursday threads all tabbed. Anyway...I agree Brandon, this is looking like at least an advisory level event as the 850's look more than sufficient and the QPF is about .40 (give or take a tenth.) I don't even want to imagine the scene around these parts if this afternoon's EURO verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Without a decent feed of cold advecting into the area, wouldn't areas that change to freezing rain eventually warm to above freezing due to the latent heat release of the freezing process? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Without a decent feed of cold advecting into the area, wouldn't areas that change to freezing rain eventually warm to above freezing due to the latent heat release of the freezing process? Its possible but this is a cold airmass beforehand and the light NE flow at the surface would still feed in some dry air to combat that. Looking at the 18z GFS, the is a weak high nosing in from the midwest towards the end of the system so that could help to feed in cold dry air. It looks to me that RDU stays below 32 the whole event. Could be a significant ZR storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 12, 2010 Author Share Posted December 12, 2010 Without a decent feed of cold advecting into the area, wouldn't areas that change to freezing rain eventually warm to above freezing due to the latent heat release of the freezing process? There's a lot of factors involved. But the main issue with this system is there will not be a ton of war air advection and sfc temps will start out very cold (mid 20's in many areas). To be honest this pattern we're in (-PDO/-NAO) is extremely rare. In a normal winter, this storm would head into the ohio valley or mid atlantic, and flood the southeast with warm air. But with the greenland block, it's another winter from the 60's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 There's a lot of factors involved. But the main issue with this system is there will not be a ton of war air advection and sfc temps will start out very cold (mid 20's in many areas). To be honest this pattern we're in (-PDO/-NAO) is extremely rare. In a normal winter, this storm would head into the ohio valley or mid atlantic, and flood the southeast with warm air. But with the greenland block, it's another winter from the 60's. There is a weak high showing up on the 18z GFS. By no means classic by with the cold air initially and weak WA this could be just enough to hold things down below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 as long as I get to apply some ice melt and salt it is a great forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 There's a lot of factors involved. But the main issue with this system is there will not be a ton of war air advection and sfc temps will start out very cold (mid 20's in many areas). To be honest this pattern we're in (-PDO/-NAO) is extremely rare. In a normal winter, this storm would head into the ohio valley or mid atlantic, and flood the southeast with warm air. But with the greenland block, it's another winter from the 60's. I agree, perfectly said. Strange setup really and the 18z continues the slight southward trend of cold and the moisture. The overrunning from the west gets in here really quick, reaching western carolinas by night on Wednesday, not Thursday morning. By midday Thursday, it has a good amount falling in central and western NC, with a lot of subfreezing air, a high to the north and the low level winds turn east northeast, after breifly starting out southerly. Look out and I was watching those weird winds froma couple days ago when the GFS started hinting at this. Either way, with low dewpoints, the strong vortex in New England and the moisture coming in, looks to me like starting as snow, some areas hanging on to snow a long time in northern or central NC, and turning to ice for southern NC. Normally, the models mess up on CAD temps at the surface, so I wouldn't be suprised to see the ice extend into northeast GA and western SC.. Looks like a mess if the qpf keeps inching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Thanks for the comments, guys. What you're saying makes complete sense. I did notice on the 18Z run that a HP is now showing up. Hopefully, that feature will exist and trend a bit stronger with time. As has been said before, there is a good deal of confluence in the NE, which is something that helps us down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Looks to me like the 18z GFS numerical guidance has backed off some for Thursday...maybe I'm reading it wrong. We'll see at 0z if that was a blip. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMRN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looks to me like the 18z GFS numerical guidance has backed off some for Thursday...maybe I'm reading it wrong. We'll see at 0z if that was a blip. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KMRN It was the 18z GFS, so I wouldn't read too much into it. Like you said, we'll see what the 0z model runs have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I agree, perfectly said. Strange setup really and the 18z continues the slight southward trend of cold and the moisture. The overrunning from the west gets in here really quick, reaching western carolinas by night on Wednesday, not Thursday morning. By midday Thursday, it has a good amount falling in central and western NC, with a lot of subfreezing air, a high to the north and the low level winds turn east northeast, after breifly starting out southerly. Look out and I was watching those weird winds froma couple days ago when the GFS started hinting at this. Either way, with low dewpoints, the strong vortex in New England and the moisture coming in, looks to me like starting as snow, some areas hanging on to snow a long time in northern or central NC, and turning to ice for southern NC. Normally, the models mess up on CAD temps at the surface, so I wouldn't be suprised to see the ice extend into northeast GA and western SC.. Looks like a mess if the qpf keeps inching up. A mess indeed. I am slated to drive from AVL to Wilmington, NC on Thursday and right now I am strongly considering canceling that business trip. Looks like snow or ice across the entire state at some point Wednesday night and Thursday. Other thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Now we have two threads on the Dec 16 event, and another thread about Dec 14 and onward. Too many threads on the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Now we have two threads on the Dec 16 event, and another thread about Dec 14 and onward. Too many threads on the same time period. No it's not. You have different mets/forecasters giving their thoughts which allows for different conversations. My suggestion is to pick a thread and follow that if you can't figure the message board system out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 No it's not. You have different mets/forecasters giving their thoughts which allows for different conversations. My suggestion is to pick a thread and follow that if you can't figure the message board system out. I figured it out fine. There are three threads talking about the same time period now. Just seems like it would be better to just have two separate threads, one for Dec 16 and one for Dec 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Now we have two threads on the Dec 16 event, and another thread about Dec 14 and onward. Too many threads on the same time period. I agree...we actually have 3 threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 currently writing an update for wed night/thur and the weekend system. will post it as soon as i'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 currently writing an update for wed night/thur and the weekend system. will post it as soon as i'm done. Looking forward to it. I think ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Looking forward to it. I think ? Haha. Me too. I guess. (I'll reserve final judgment until after i read it as its not looking as good) I felt a lot better about it yesterday It's a shame we cant get a lot of moisture in here with temps like we have this evening. Could you imagine what the ratios would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I just want to see more than just a few flurries that I saw yesterday here in Athens, Ga. Can't wait for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Haha. Me too. I guess. (I'll reserve final judgment until after i read it as its not looking as good) I felt a lot better about it yesterday It's a shame we cant get a lot of moisture in here with temps like we have this evening. Could you imagine what the ratios would be That's the truth It just hardly ever works out for us here in the se, Maybe it will sometime soon ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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