Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Some of the models really dive the energy south and develop a coastal at that time. those analog years are always fun to play around with. just ignore the bad years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Some of the models really dive the energy south and develop a coastal at that time. I'm pretty confident that there will be a major storm somewhere east of the Rockies around that time. A lot of energy pouring over the top of the ridge ... originating from north of the Arctic circle ... and diving into the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I don't consider that October stuff as having any correlation whatsoever to our future this winter anyway. Me neither, obviously, but just saying "wow" again to how we cashed in during an on average crappy pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 00z and 06z gfs ensembles keep the colder than normal temperatures in the northeast and midwest from day 7-8 to the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 00z and 06z gfs ensembles keep the colder than normal temperatures in the northeast and midwest from day 7-8 to the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Those are OP runs and not ensembles. That said, the Euro ensembles are still better than the GEFS at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Those are OP runs and not ensembles. That said, the Euro ensembles are still better than the GEFS at that time range. Versus the GEFS and EC Ensemble Controls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 First part of the cold shot may be taking a toaster bath in favor for a more pronounced secondary push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Versus the GEFS and EC Ensemble Controls. So which is which? GEFS and OP Euro tend to have the same score past D7 roughly...and the GEFS actually does better than the OP Euro i think around D 9/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 First part of the cold shot may be taking a toaster bath in favor for a more pronounced secondary push. First part was aways middoing. Same thing happened after 12/4/60. We had several days of M40s. The hammer dropped 12/12 but nvember and early December were out and out torches. Te question is when does a hugely above normal regime snap to the opposite. Hopefully not April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Those are OP runs and not ensembles. That said, the Euro ensembles are still better than the GEFS at that time range. to be fair, I can't see the euro ensembles past day 10...just posting what I saw from the GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 to be fair, I can't see the euro ensembles past day 10...just posting what I saw from the GFS ensembles. I'm not sure what the global bias is of the GEFS, but they seem to always be the coldest on the east coast past D10. Euro ensembles are coldish after D10 too but they don't look as cold as the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 So which is which? GEFS and OP Euro tend to have the same score past D7 roughly...and the GEFS actually does better than the OP Euro i think around D 9/10. Will here's the link to be honest not sure but I'm guessing our GEFS is the worst control? http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GEFS/verif.php You understand these things far better than me, I was just looking for a GEFS verification and found that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Will here's the link to be honest not sure but I'm guessing our GEFS is the worst control? http://www.emc.ncep..../GEFS/verif.php You understand these things far better than me, I was just looking for a GEFS verification and found that. Ok, that makes sense that the EC ensembles are the best in terms of errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Ok, that makes sense that the EC ensembles are the best in terms of errors. Unfortunately that site only goes out to D6...the ensembles really gain their relative skill on the OP runs past that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yeah kind of blows that it's only out to D6. But still cool to look at because let's face it....it shows the Euro is better at D6 and we know it's likely better at D10+ just from observation. GFS did toaster bath it's initial days of cold shots. At least another week of this with a short return to near normal. Not going to be quite as torchy but still we may hear some chairs tipping next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Unfortunately that site only goes out to D6...the ensembles really gain their relative skill on the OP runs past that time frame. And I don't know of any other site that does that off hand, either. I wish I knew. I was just comparing the EC ensembles to the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Well Kevin wont have to bundle up much for the Bills game. Torch part 2 next weekend....... Unfortunately that site only goes out to D6...the ensembles really gain their relative skill on the OP runs past that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I was just checking out the pattern in November 2001 because I saw the anomalies in Northeast locations were similar...it's pretty incredible how very different hemispheric patterns can deliver similar anomalies. The midwest and northern plains were much warmer in Nov. 2001 however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 And I don't know of any other site that does that off hand, either. I wish I knew. I was just comparing the EC ensembles to the GEFS. There was a link to a site a couple winters ago that had out to D10 or something. I wish I had it bookmarked. It showed the GEFS starts outperforming the OP Euro around D7-D8, but the Euro ensembles are still king D7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yeah kind of blows that it's only out to D6. But still cool to look at because let's face it....it shows the Euro is better at D6 and we know it's likely better at D10+ just from observation. GFS did toaster bath it's initial days of cold shots. At least another week of this with a short return to near normal. Not going to be quite as torchy but still we may hear some chairs tipping next week. Those who fail to learn history re doomed to repeat it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The GFS is so slow to move that front through early next week ...maybe we can pull off some anafrontal action. I was just checking out the pattern in November 2001 because I saw the anomalies in Northeast locations were similar...it's pretty incredible how very different hemispheric patterns can deliver similar anomalies. The midwest and northern plains were much warmer in Nov. 2001 however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 There was a link to a site a couple winters ago that had out to D10 or something. I wish I had it bookmarked. It showed the GEFS starts outperforming the OP Euro around D7-D8, but the Euro ensembles are still king D7-10. I feel like there is so much stuff in that EMC model verification page. I bet there is something in there like that. Just have to fish around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'd like the 12z GFS much more for 12/8-12-11 if it came true. I like that nice little system ripping through. The ridge off the west coast is stomped and replaced by a weaker ridge in the mountains. Not bad for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Well Kevin wont have to bundle up much for the Bills game. Torch part 2 next weekend....... Sunday should be near 40 and cloudy in Buffalo. Perfect for a fottball game. Only thing better would obviosuly be snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 In 1960... The cold and blizzard came but the pattern relaxed during the holidays before reloading in January. The rubber band snapped back mild after the February bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Congrats Phil and messenger for the 384 hour op...lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 In 1960... The cold and blizzard came but the pattern relaxed during the holidays before reloading in January. The rubber band snapped back mild after the February bomb. It's the GFS though...so little chance of those maps verifying close to that. GFS starting to spit out some fantasies late run. Odd pattern, high has displaced way to the west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Congrats Phil and messenger for the 384 hour op...lol.... LOCK it. 3 white christmases incoming. I feel it. Suspect the GEFS will be a lot different. GFS quickly replaces the pac high with a low almost out of the blue. Seems to be hitting the sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 In 1960... The cold and blizzard came but the pattern relaxed during the holidays before reloading in January. The rubber band snapped back mild after the February bomb. Jerry..starting to get worried, really worried..need to see some signs in the next 10 days.say by Dec 10th or I have my doubts about at least the first part of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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