Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Late November/Early December disco on the upcoming pattern


CoastalWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Jim Cramer on CNBC just said we need colder wx next weekend to save the retail market. :) All this warm wx is gonna lead to less people in the stores.

That sounds about right. Particularly the last part.

I don't know what you guys are talking about. SkiMRG is right this is delightfully pleasant ski weather. It's only 60 at 7am. That's perfectly good snowmaking weather. It's only 37 on Mount Washington. Once you get about about 7500 feet the snowmaking is going splashingly well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Will what are your thoughts for that day 7-8 threat? The setup looks pretty good right now.. now we just need to work on the heights rising more out west to better allow the low to become negative.. what did the euro show last night for that?

It looks like crap to me right now.

I wouldn't really think about individual threats right now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is very hurtful.

LOL,I expect a post like that from him.

The funny thing is that nothing has changed in 2-3 weeks. Everything seems to be going as planned...especially considering the typical push back in the long range. I feel for those that expect every December to be colder and snowier than normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro weeklies come out today...we'll have to see how they look for week 2/3...it should be a bit better than last time given the LR Euro ensembles but they don't always agree.

As for early December, aside from some details that are impossible to pin down from 2-3 weeks out, I think its pretty much as originally progged...first 10 days are going to need a miracle to average out negative. But there should be a 3-5 day period in there of more seasonable to a bit below avg temps that will certainly give us a chance.

Beyond that there is more uncertainty...there is a possibility that we may end up in a decent gradient pattern but there is also a chance that we may have too much ridging in the east and we won't get much of anything.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL,I expect a post like that from him.

The funny thing is that nothing has changed in 2-3 weeks. Everything seems to be going as planned...especially considering the typical push back in the long range. I feel for those that expect every December to be colder and snowier than normal.

I just want a winter that doesn't start at Christmas and end by Valentine's Day. That's all I ask - a winter to last longer than six weeks. Summer seems to be able hold its own for months on end (it is practically endless after all as we're told damn near daily), why not winter? If I can't have monstrous snow totals, how about some real honest to goodness cold weather? Like the kind they get down south like in Oklahoma. Waking up to temps near 60 in what is just about December almost makes me wish it was April 28th instead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL,I expect a post like that from him.

The funny thing is that nothing has changed in 2-3 weeks. Everything seems to be going as planned...especially considering the typical push back in the long range. I feel for those that expect every December to be colder and snowier than normal.

outside of some subtle timing differences, it's been remarkably well outlined since the beginning of november.

how do the ec ens handle the + height anomalies off the west coast day 10 onward?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOL, well not you as you were posting it for learning purposes.

And for weenie entertainment.

Obviously the 00z Euro is a lot warmer for us, but if there's one thing I like to see, it's just getting the cold air down into the CONUS. One way or another, the northern Plains get pretty chilly. The Pacific looks pretty darn good now, and now we just need to develop some degree of blocking in the Atlantic ... or at least a "favorable" +NAO like December 2007.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

outside of some subtle timing differences, it's been remarkably well outlined since the beginning of november.

how do the ec ens handle the + height anomalies off the west coast day 10 onward?

They are pretty decent actually. They actually reintensify the -EPO a little bit around Dec 11 and then it relaxes after that. But the whole time we have above avg heights in the PNA region of W Canada. We start getting more troughing the SW US as time goes on which promotes more of a gradient pattern as it tries to pump the SE ridge a bit which is in opposition to the Canadian +PNA that is driving cold air southward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And for weenie entertainment.

Obviously the 00z Euro is a lot warmer for us, but if there's one thing I like to see, it's just getting the cold air down into the CONUS. One way or another, the northern Plains get pretty chilly. The Pacific looks pretty darn good now, and now we just need to develop some degree of blocking in the Atlantic ... or at least a "favorable" +NAO like December 2007.

I don't think it looks bad in the 11-15 day range. It seems to offer the opportunities of overrunning, but it's too early to tell if they will be more milder solutions or a Dec '07 redux. It doesn't look like a disaster, but the se ridge will be enhanced a bit. The saving grace is that the PAC ridge doesn't appear to be a total flat top and causes the flow in Canada to be more northwest instead of west. Having the mid and upper level flow coming from the northwest will help keep Canada cold and hopefully try to keep any low pressure from riding to our west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not on Nov 28th. But when people have delusions about a wild return to winter and impending snow storms, it gets tiresome trying to inject reality. It pollutes the threads with fallacies and it gets old.

Pollute is the perfect word. Most of us recognize this pattern for what it is, take what we can get the next 14 days and if we get nothing nobody will be surprised. Well almost nobody.

This meso map is absolutely astounding for 10am.

http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/mesomap.htm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They are pretty decent actually. They actually reintensify the -EPO a little bit around Dec 11 and then it relaxes after that. But the whole time we have above avg heights in the PNA region of W Canada. We start getting more troughing the SW US as time goes on which promotes more of a gradient pattern as it tries to pump the SE ridge a bit which is in opposition to the Canadian +PNA that is driving cold air southward.

thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The tendency over the last few days hasn't been to lower heights up there overall which is good. Actually last night, the 00z run raised heights a tad in AK, but I'm just comparing that run from 12z yesterday.

That will help us a lot if we can keep heights higher for longer up there. It will make Canada much colder and in turn will probably help press the gradient a little further south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...