dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 yeah its terrible. if there is a real storm (not an anafrontal deal), it will be too far west for here also as shown in the pattern shown by the GFS. maybe ottawa may have a chance. ottawa needs to cool down and get some snow on the ground. if that doesnt happen, there is no chance for sustained winter to the S and E aside from thread the needles and transient cooldowns, caveat: unless there is a big neg AO. Sam's snowfalll anomlay map from last night really illustrated that problem nicely. The atlantic ridge is killing us now for this next event around the 6th, The only hope i hold out its the GFS and still out there, Will wait to see a few more days of runs, Especially the Euro before completly writing it off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ensembles look way less bleak through d7...way better...looks like the warmth is truncated and the cold may be the real deal. The Simard Slammer is on 12/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 If anyone has any recommendations on really expensive restaraunts around Brookline please PM. I have some of weatherfella's money to spend That said the Euro will now show a 2 foot snowstorm on his birthday just to spite me. I'm going out to enjoy the "nearest to seasonal" new norms of the mid 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I believe we want that ridge more over the Western US, rather than over the Pacific. We do, Thats why everything has shifted west i believe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ultimately though this SE Ridge might be a big friend to you guys in YUL and YOW. Perhaps a bit early, but as time goes on..... yeah its terrible. if there is a real storm (not an anafrontal deal), it will be too far west for here also as shown in the pattern shown by the GFS. maybe ottawa may have a chance. ottawa needs to cool down and get some snow on the ground. if that doesnt happen, there is no chance for sustained winter to the S and E aside from thread the needles and transient cooldowns, caveat: unless there is a big neg AO. Sam's snowfalll anomlay map from last night really illustrated that problem nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ensembles look way less bleak through d7...way better...looks like the warmth is truncated and the cold may be the real deal. The Simard Slammer is on 12/6. Fook the op run, I already tossed it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ensembles look way less bleak through d7...way better...looks like the warmth is truncated and the cold may be the real deal. The Simard Slammer is on 12/6. I have little faith in either the GFS or its ensembles. That said they're showing snow with what must be some members showing either the UL involvement or an actual surface low somewhere nearby. And I'd already put the lobster plastic blocker around my neck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 LOL, you guys have to take it easy with the noose jokes. A lot of things can happen between now and April, despite this crappy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS ensembles look better than the op run. That's not saying much though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Owing to my location IVOF the Cordillera here.... I'm actually having a "reasonable" day here temp-wise. It has fallen back to 42 degrees under ovc skies. I have little faith in either the GFS or its ensembles. That said they're showing snow with what must be some members showing either the UL involvement or an actual surface low somewhere nearby. And I'd already put the lobster plastic blocker around my neck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Your 2010-11 snowfall forecast is really looking good for this year. I knew you were onto something there. GFS ensembles look better than the op run. That's not saying much though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS ensembles look better than the op run. That's not saying much though lol. They are still bullish with the ridge in AK. That's the difference between them and the EC ensembles that I mentioned earlier. I don't have a lot of faith in them beyond hr 300, but even a compromise between the EC and GEFS would be better. I still have to tip my cap to the EC ensembles in terms of confidence, but that doesn't mean they are totally correct....although they are the better ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ultimately though this SE Ridge might be a big friend to you guys in YUL and YOW. Perhaps a bit early, but as time goes on..... not so sure about that Rick. if that EPO doesnt cooperate, it could be a write off here as well IMO. right now the pattern is terrible for all locations to the SE of the canadian shield....to the East, not so sure. i can tell you from past experience that the Shield can be the delinating point for the has beens and have nots. you will often see this as the storm track in winter for true lake cutters. thats why ottawa which is on the S side of the shield, represents the point at which cold air needs to establish itself, and from there it can press S and E. ive mentioned it before, historically we dont do well in warm falls in Nina winters. Ottawa Blizzard has the data on that. we'll see what happens, its still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS ensembles look better than the op run. That's not saying much though lol. they still have a very persistent + anomaly over the SE ...maybe around the 10th or so we can sneak a wintry swfe in after the cold settles eastward for a short time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I guess that kinda happened in that 1998 ice storm.... Tremblant had a big dump of all snow (or close to it) and Montreal all that ice .... Cool map ..and it shows that little adjunct of the Canadian shield that is the Adirondacks. I'm only about 30 miles from the edge of that. not so sure about that Rick. if that EPO doesnt cooperate, it could be a write off here as well IMO. right now the pattern is terrible for all locations to the SE of the canadian shield....to the East, not so sure. i can tell you from past experience that the Shield can be the delinating point for the has beens and have nots. you will often see this as the storm track in winter for true lake cutters. thats why ottawa which is on the S side of the shield, represents the point at which cold air needs to establish itself, and from there it can press S and E. ive mentioned it before, historically we dont do well in warm falls in Nina winters. Ottawa Blizzard has the data on that. we'll see what happens, its still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 they still have a very persistent + anomaly over the SE ...maybe around the 10th or so we can sneak a wintry swfe in after the cold settles eastward for a short time I'm hoping something near that time or a little after, but that's in the "who knows" time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Your 2010-11 snowfall forecast is really looking good for this year. I knew you were onto something there. lol true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I guess that kinda happened in that 1998 ice storm.... Tremblant had a big dump of all snow (or close to it) and Montreal all that ice .... Cool map ..and it shows that little adjunct of the Canadian shield that is the Adirondacks. I'm only about 30 miles from the edge of that. yes, thats a great example. and the extension into the adirondacks is definitely a cool feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm hoping something near that time or a little after, but that's in the "who knows" time frame. yeah right now that seems like "window" but whatever. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Not to pile on bad news, but this has to be shown. Epic forecast disaster....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 When you are wrong by almost 2 SD...that is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 the gfs ensemble mean is relatively chilly through mid-month...and has some persistent troughing over the GL that occasionally shifts into the Northeast. but it's interesting when you look at the mslp fields, how many transient HPs it has coming out of the southern plains into the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 When you are wrong by almost 2 SD...that is bad. they should shut down the server and reboot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Not to pile on bad news, but this has to be shown. Epic forecast disaster....lol. That is a loltastic image. Unreal how bad it has been. I'll let you start the next thread since this one went so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro ensembles were a little better, but still bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 That is a loltastic image. Unreal how bad it has been. I'll let you start the next thread since this one went so well. Not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm going to step back, spend time with family, enjoy my good health and celebrate. The weather will do whatever it does. This hobby is too obsessional. I learned that lesson many years ago and don't let things get to me. You need to enjoy what you have...wishing and stretching are not going to change it. I'd love some cold and snow as much as anyone else but I don't have it and can't make it happen. I know one thing....this has been a remarkable year for weather and years from now I can look back and think of highlights. I know I'm not going to focus this pattern that we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 New thread....let's see if my juju works.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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