Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Wxrisk.com there is a possible New England clipper low that could bring New England -- and NEW ENGLAND ONLY snow DEC 6-7 and 9-10 i'm not seeing the fascination with that 6/7 period. hopefully something comes out of it - it's certainly still quite a ways a way...but i see fropa followed by a shot of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 i'm not seeing the fascination with that 6/7 period. hopefully something comes out of it - it's certainly still quite a ways a way...but i see fropa followed by a shot of cold air. You need to take a break from the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Thanks for that intelligent response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 You need to take a break from the board. Not Phil and not you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 You need to take a break from the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Thanks for that intelligent response well i just don't know how many times we can say the same thing over and over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 well i just don't know how many times we can say the same thing over and over again love your avatar , did you design it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Not Phil and not you Well trust me, I hate this pattern as much as you or anyone else. We have very different climate regions in this wonderful place called New England. Obviously, some are going to have a better chance of winter wx, than others. The next two weeks will have cold shots. That will happen. The question is how much cold if any, will be around for any storm chances? We'll have some storms approaching, but I think we run the risk of milder type solutions too. That doesn't mean they will be all rain, but I wouldn't be shocked if one of them is a cutter or fropa type deal. Hopefully it can turn into a SWFE as it is real early in the game. Maybe another mid month, but that is far out obviously. What I don't like..and I hope this changes today and the next couple of days, is the pattern going forward into mid month. We'll see how the next several runs turn out, but the ridge really backs off and heights lower out west. In turn, heights rise in the east. Again, it doesn't mean we can't sneak in some sort of winter event, but there are legit concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The December 9-10 storm has been on the GFS for 5-6 straight runs now, including the latest 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 We just keep on hitting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Hopefully the GFS ensembles have a clue, because they are more amped up and further east with the ridge out by the GOA. In turn, they are colder. Even a compromise between the GEFS and EC ensembles would help, but I'm not terribly confident in that solution especially since they have warmed a bit. The EC ensembles are a compromise between the GEFS which are cold, and the Canadian ensembles which are much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Overnight ensembles are hideous. Not going to rehash but not good at all. The Euro ens with the +EPO returning by 12/12 is quite concerning. Even with a transient improvement in the north Pacific I think we are going to need some mechanism to truly snap the pattern. Unfortunately it looks like the MJO is going to die a slow and painful death over Indonesia. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Hopefully the GFS ensembles have a clue, because they are more amped up and further east with the ridge out by the GOA. In turn, they are colder. Even a compromise between the GEFS and EC ensembles would help, but I'm not terribly confident in that solution especially since they have warmed a bit. The EC ensembles are a compromise between the GEFS which are cold, and the Canadian ensembles which are much warmer. Yeah GFS ensemble mean holds on to some ridging out in the PNA/EPO area a bit longer. Hard to say which one is right but I think the lesson is from all the models that the favorable ridging in the GOA/WNOAM is likely transient and not a permanent fixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 How is the euro handling the shortwaves for the Dec 6/7 storm? It seems like the GFS wants to combine all of them over the Southwest whereas the NAM wants to keep them separated into smaller S/Ws ...which model is typically better on handling the S/Ws? Wouldn't you argue the more hi-res NAM? Edit: NVM looking at 84 hour.. the good news is I guess I Wont miss much out in Cali from the 18th to the 25th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro with a crushing snowstorm next week and a nice pattern in the extended. We're losing Ray,Jerry, and Will to worry. People wondered why I have been so worried the last few weeks. Some folks sense things earlier than others. Well, when your general tenor changes each week, you're bound to have had the right idea at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This pattern is downright putrid. I'm not seeing that many positive signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Imagine how much time has been wasted in this thread talking about things that are well out past 7 days.... I wonder if it will all have been worth it if some cold shot and snow verifies December 15th. LOL I'm looking out to about the middle of next week because that is just starting to get into the reality zone of the Euro. Beyond that god only knows....not worth devoting much time to it truthfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This pattern is downright putrid. I'm not seeing that many positive signs. At least we have Valentine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Imagine how much time has been wasted in this thread talking about things that are well out past 7 days.... I wonder if it will all have been worth it if some cold shot and snow verifies December 15th. LOL I'm looking out to about the middle of next week because that is just starting to get into the reality zone of the Euro. Beyond that god only knows....not worth devoting much time to it truthfully. I think most of us have had the general right idea since mid-November. We cannot say we didn't see this terrible pattern coming. We did. There was a lot of support for it. Some didn't want to believe it, but unfortunately we can't wishcast our way into patterns. I wish it was a lot better, but I do not see much positive. I'm hoping we can hold onto a gradient type pattern for a 7-10 day period but that is not guaranteed and we could just be looking at some transient cold shots with a lot of ridging in between versus a flatter flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm officially worried on 11\30....glad I have yet to nenew my EURO subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I am generally optimistic. But I've lived long enough to know when to hold and know when to fold. If today's 12Z site confirms the 0Z trends, I will be on the verge of folding for the period 12/1-15. It can still snow...Will mentions the nice event of December 2001....but the month and winter that year were awful. Let's see if last nights trends are real. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they are not. Don't give up on the 6th yet. If that fails I'll be eating well in January. Overnight ensembles are hideous. Not going to rehash but not good at all. The Euro ens with the +EPO returning by 12/12 is quite concerning. Even with a transient improvement in the north Pacific I think we are going to need some mechanism to truly snap the pattern. Unfortunately it looks like the MJO is going to die a slow and painful death over Indonesia. Not good. The brutality of it all is troubling. But all seasons are fun. This pattern is downright putrid. I'm not seeing that many positive signs. That's not very encouraging. --- Phil, my fascination with the 6th is just simply with fresh cold approaching and a lot of upper energy. I know it's far from ideal, or classic but it's all we've got right now. Plus if we fail to develop a big storm even if it misses I think we're hosed after that regardless. We need a big storm to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think most of us have had the general right idea since mid-November. We cannot say we didn't see this terrible pattern coming. We did. There was a lot of support for it. Some didn't want to believe it, but unfortunately we can't wishcast our way into patterns. I wish it was a lot better, but I do not see much positive. I'm hoping we can hold onto a gradient type pattern for a 7-10 day period but that is not guaranteed and we could just be looking at some transient cold shots with a lot of ridging in between versus a flatter flow. October snow events are just bad, bad news. Great, I may have traded a winter for a more historic version of December 1996.....what an expensive cosmic dildo that may have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 October snow events are just bad, bad news. Great, I may have traded a winter for a more historic version of December 1996.....what an expensive cosmic dildo that may have been. I've posted data that shows otherwise. They generally have little effect on seasonal snowfall. This was my biggest October snow event since 2002. That winter worked out pretty well. So did 2000 and all 5 of the 1960s winters that had snow in October. The ones we love to remember are 1979, 1988, and 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm not happy about this situation, but plenty of years we haven't had much winter wx before Christmas. I think back and more often than not we are going into that Xmas period and the tv wx guys are into their "can we conjure up some snow for a white xmas" act. So not at all unusual..... One thing I'd like to see is more analogs for La Nina years where you have a mild start to winter and then it recovers and gets colder and snowier later. So I guess true worry will set in if we get into later December and no flip is in sight. But hey I detest that I'm sitting here and 46 degrees is my colder airmass. I'm officially worried on 11\30....glad I have yet to nenew my EURO subscription. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm not happy about this situation, but plenty of years we haven't had much winter wx before Christmas. I think back and more often than not we are going into that Xmas period and the tv wx guys are into their "can we conjure up some snow for a white xmas" act. So not at all unusual..... One thing I'd like to see is more analogs for La Nina years where you have a mild start to winter and then it recovers and gets colder and snowier later. So I guess true worry will set in if we get into later December and no flip is in sight. But hey I detest that I'm sitting here and 46 degrees is my colder airmass. Crappy Nina Decembers are bad news, though......the first half of Dec looks like crap and the 2nd half very iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 During all those KU events of the last several years....some unfortunate souls were suffering through brutality. Somewhere out west where they didn't have much of a winter..... The brutality of it all is troubling. But all seasons are fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I've posted data that shows otherwise. They generally have little effect on seasonal snowfall. This was my biggest October snow event since 2002. That winter worked out pretty well. So did 2000 and all 5 of the 1960s winters that had snow in October. The ones we love to remember are 1979, 1988, and 2009 That doesn't make me feel much better. I'm off to breathe into a paper bag....first miny meltdown in a year...felt good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 You know you're in a rough pattern when SW winds are the bearer of an airmass change - to colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Ugly Dec 1-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That's what I was implying.... A warm Dec. I can reluctantly deal with, but troubled by the analogs for the rest of the winter after a mild La Nina Dec. Crappy Nina Decembers are bad news, though......the first half of Dec looks like crap and the 2nd half very iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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