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Late November/Early December disco on the upcoming pattern


CoastalWx

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Well being further west I kinda liked the op Euro at 168 hours, but we need that bomb to develop a little further south probably. I see the ensembles also have that low cutting off around our latitude.

The euro ensembles kind of continue that concern I explained about a day ago. They really lower heights all over western NAMR and the EPO ridge backs off like a scared turtle. They pump up the se ridge a bit too.

I think we'll have a couple of chances, but we may have the risk of milder solutions too, as illustrated by the euro op. I continue to be pretty meh about the pattern until proven otherwise.

Edit, the 12z runs did it yesterday.

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Winter cancel, + temp departures, endless summer, wash, rinse, repeat blah blah blah, Most knew that this pattern for cold right now is marginal, We are going to see swings in the models, If we lose December, Then we should be concernd but it has not even arrived yet..

Obviously, your area is in a better spot, but I continue to be not impressed by the whole pattern. I think the other Mets are the same. At times the models look better to encourage us, but it just doesn't seem like an overall good pattern right now. Nobody is ruling out chances.

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Obviously, your area is in a better spot, but I continue to be not impressed by the whole pattern. I think the other Mets are the same. At times the models look better to encourage us, but it just doesn't seem like an overall good pattern right now. Nobosy is ruling out chances.

You're right on, Scooter. There will be a couple transient shots (next weekend, e.g.), but the overall pattern is not a good one for the EC.

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Winter cancel, + temp departures, endless summer, wash, rinse, repeat blah blah blah, Most knew that this pattern for cold right now is marginal, We are going to see swings in the models, If we lose December, Then we should be concernd but it has not even arrived yet..

Maybe leaving the board for a while is a good thing..man we have some depressing people here..the disregard Euro at 168 hrs but believe it 3 weeks from now..it's insane..:lightning:

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Obviously, your area is in a better spot, but I continue to be not impressed by the whole pattern. I think the other Mets are the same. At times the models look better to encourage us, but it just doesn't seem like an overall good pattern right now. Nobody is ruling out chances.

That is the one thing that still remains pretty steadfast is the chances at some storms, The biggest concerns i have is not for snow, But the marginal cold, We need something more sustained below normal and thats what i don't see happening which spells big trouble up here even moreso then no snow

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I am generally optimistic. But I've lived long enough to know when to hold and know when to fold. If today's 12Z site confirms the 0Z trends, I will be on the verge of folding for the period 12/1-15. It can still snow...Will mentions the nice event of December 2001....but the month and winter that year were awful. Let's see if last nights trends are real. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they are not.

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Alright well look, the world is not ending. We'll have a chance or two up this way, but it doesn't mean we have to like the pattern or that it is a cold and snowy one. If it turns out that way in the first half of the month..I think all of us will welcome being wrong. I'm just not a big fan and haven't been for a while....hence the posts about me being "cranky"...lol. It sounds like Will, Phil, Ryan, Adam and others feel the same and have been that way for a while. Nothing has changed, but as we go forward in time...you want to see some changes. The problem is that I don't see these changes right now. We'll just roll with the punches and see what happens. Even if I get 1-3" and washed away by rain...I'll still enjoy it.

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DT just mentioned something on FB which is totally true..the Euro weeklies two weeks ago had no cold air at all moving into the USA next week..none..it was supposed to be a all out blowtorch..they were wrong!..Can we stop looking at these long range models like they were written in stone?Anything past 7 days is a reach..but we are already giving up on December when it's not even December yet..

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Just to clarify, I'm more thinking ahead towards mid month and beyond. There has been a trend to really lower heights across western NAMR which in turn is pumping up heights in the east. That's the trend I do not like.

I also feel the storm near the 8th to 10th could again be another mild storm, but it is way too early to get specific. Maybe that one is more of a SWFE.

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DT just mentioned something on FB which is totally true..the Euro weeklies two weeks ago had no cold air at all moving into the USA next week..none..it was supposed to be a all out blowtorch..they were wrong!..Can we stop looking at these long range models like they were written in stone?Anything past 7 days is a reach..but we are already giving up on December when it's not even December yet..

The weeklies are a weekly average. A lot of that cold won't be until after the 7th. The weeklies from the 14th will end up being pretty close.

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Kevin,

instead of mocking the mid atlantic, you should be cheering us on. A warm weather for NY-Phl-Was does not bode well for Boston. Remember 2001-2002. In cold winters, you guys can crush us with regards to snowfall. In warm east coast winters--nobody wins. The colder we are...the better it is for you. Its not like we have been basking in 70 degree heat while you have been shoveling snow

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DT just mentioned something on FB which is totally true..the Euro weeklies two weeks ago had no cold air at all moving into the USA next week..none..it was supposed to be a all out blowtorch..they were wrong!..Can we stop looking at these long range models like they were written in stone?Anything past 7 days is a reach..but we are already giving up on December when it's not even December yet..

:weenie:

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