weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The pattern overall absolutely stinks for sustained cold...the Euro hates the EPO ridge..it disintegrates it very fast. The ensembles did it too at 12z. This screams transient cold. Narrow bands of cold air when the trough swings through only to be replaced by PAC puke shortly after like we often see in terrible patterns. Hopefully the ensembles are correct in keeping a bit of a PNA ridge, because if they don't, then we are staring directly in the face of a pattern that resembles many a horrific December. I'm not ready to call it that yet, but I am certainly weary. The Pacific worsens and the Atlantic improves. Overall I agree with Will re the sustainability based on the overall guidance. Squirrels....don't let me down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Cold centered in the midsection ala 2000.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Hey i am from the SE forum but like to read other forums to get a good feel for any pattern change. The way it looks maybe by mid Dec if we could get some blocking would be a good start. If we do not get the blocking then it looks like the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm starting to get that feeling when you change your answer on the test and realize you had It right the first time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Cold centered in the midsection ala 2000.... 1996-97 was another one that came to mind, that trough just refused to ever setup shop any further east than about where the above map has it, or slightly more west than that. The anomalies that winter were +5 in central PA and NY but more or less normal by the time you reached Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm starting to get that feeling when you change your answer on the test and realize you had It right the first time..... Lol what was your first answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm starting to get that feeling when you change your answer on the test and realize you had It right the first time..... Uh oh ... we're losing Jerry. Another domino tumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm starting to get that feeling when you change your answer on the test and realize you had It right the first time..... The JWI faltering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro with a crushing snowstorm next week and a nice pattern in the extended. We're losing Ray,Jerry, and Will to worry. People wondered why I have been so worried the last few weeks. Some folks sense things earlier than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Uh oh ... we're losing Jerry. Another domino tumbles. Not yet....but frayed on the edges. At worst I'll can December but not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Lol what was your first answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 http://www.americanw...55#entry1035055 Oh ok thanks. Ya currently looks almost spot on. Hopefully we can get some kind of sign for a pattern change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro with a crushing snowstorm next week[\b] and a nice pattern in the extended. We're losing Ray,Jerry, and Will to worry. People wondered why I have been so worried the last few weeks. Some folks sense things earlier than others. Yeah looks like some good upslope snows in the front range of Montana and Idaho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Not yet....but frayed on the edges. At worst I'll can December but not yet. Pattern starts to change 1/10 Pattern change complete 1/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Pattern starts to change 1/10 Pattern change complete 1/25 Lol....you didn't put which year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Lol....you didn't put which year... Your initial forecast looks brilliant...almost to the tee. Why did you change it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 If the east coast can get one late December snowstorm..I would consider December a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Your initial forecast looks brilliant...almost to the tee. Why did you change it? I saw 2 squirrels making sweet love followed by the observation that they were unbelievably fat. I took it as a sign from above and flipped. I'm not kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 Models took a step back last night and comfirm our worries. Some are still delusional I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Definitely not looking promising for anything sustained in the next 7-10 days as far as cold goes. Next weeks setup on the Euro wreaks of an interior threat. OH/PA/NY. Not much to do except cook up a little warm cider and sing Christmas Carols to stay in the seasonal mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 The euro ensembles kind of continue that concern I explained about a day ago. They really lower heights all over western NAMR and the EPO ridge backs off like a scared turtle. They pump up the se ridge a bit too. I think we'll have a couple of chances, but we may have the risk of milder solutions too, as illustrated by the euro op. I continue to be pretty meh about the pattern until proven otherwise. Edit, the 12z runs did it yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Will is brilliant but someone should tell him the correct word for what he is trying to convey is wary not weary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I saw 2 squirrels making sweet love followed by the observation that they were unbelievably fat. I took it as a sign from above and flipped. I'm not kidding! what do you make of the reports that there is an acorn shortage this year? could the fat squirrel theory be a false positive in a year of an acorn shortage i.e. rather than fatten up to prepare for a harsh winter, they sensed the shortage and ate whatever they could get their tiny little paws on - so many variables to consider. thanks for sharing your thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Winter cancel, + temp departures, endless summer, wash, rinse, repeat blah blah blah, Most knew that this pattern for cold right now is marginal, We are going to see swings in the models, If we lose December, Then we should be concernd but it has not even arrived yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This pattern takes no prisoners and destroys anyone in the way...it's spit out bastardi...devoured tolleris...mangled jerry...and now it's coming for Cosgrove Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 what do you make of the reports that there is an acorn shortage this year? could the fat squirrel theory be a false positive in a year of an acorn shortage i.e. rather than fatten up to prepare for a harsh winter, they sensed the shortage and ate whatever they could get their tiny little paws on - so many variables to consider. thanks for sharing your thoughts A good theory. But I never paid attention t those details. Yet the fat squirrel signal has never let me down. Remember, it's a snow signal so if we get a 1993 esque flip it will be mild until around 12/25-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This pattern takes no prisoners and destroys anyone in the way...it's spit out bastardi...devoured tolleris...mangled jerry...and now it's coming for Cosgrove can you stop coming into our subforum and trolling? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 can you stop coming into our subforum and trolling? Thanks. His posts this morning are quite reasonable and he gets a pass as one of the bb icons. Respect your board elders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2011 Author Share Posted November 30, 2011 I see the overnight crew broke it down. Not much more to add...I haven't been excited about the overall pattern and nothing has changed. I'm actually a little disappointed in the overnight runs. I got a little more encouraged yesterday, as it seemed maybe we could get some ridging in the NAO region, but that may not happen. The cold does try to dump in here, but it seems like we our having trouble getting the PV far south into Canada, unlike the past Ninas. The GOA ridge does dump a shot of cold in here, but the problem is that it backs off and we have a leftover southwest US trough. As the ridge backs off, the se ridge builds a little and the flow overt the US now becomes a little more zonal. That starts to introduce more PAC taint. We are also now at the mercy of milder solutions without a good PV and good cold air. It doesn't mean we won't have chances...we might and probably will for some areas, but I think the first half of December has a good shot of being above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Will is brilliant but someone should tell him the correct word for what he is trying to convey is wary not weary. I've corrected those guys for yrs about it. They don't listen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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