ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The rubber band has to snap No it actually doesn't. Hopefully it does, but there's actually more evidence of it not snapping after this type of sustained warmth versus flipping to cold for the rest of winter. The winter does seem to have a bit more going for it though in terms of getting cold later on than some of those other horrific years that had a torch November and early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The Gfs tonight is just tragic The GEFS is different, it never develops the big low next week and I really think that's bogus. So I don't make much of the rest of it but I think it totally blows if it's right. Comparing even to the 12z we're now struggling to get around 0c or just below in many periods and as a pro met just said to me offline if ANY gfs product is struggling to show the cold it's not good. Yes...By mid Jan my avg high is 35. So a +18 degree day would be 53. If we maintain this nonsense, that will feel chilly by then. We'll have to see what the ensembles show. This weekend's cold shot has been largely muted. Hopefully that doesn't become the theme of winter 11-12. Boy, we are stuck in a rut. Very true, I tihnk the ensembles suck and are setting us up for more suck. But for the reason above I don't buy them. A majority of the time, sustained warmth in November is bad...but its not always true. I did post some years that bucked that trend...several of them even continued warm into December as well. December 2001 actually had a pretty big snow event on Dec 8th after much of the region set record highs on Dec 6th...many of them MONTHLY record highs in the low 70s...not just dailies. That winter stunk though. 1993-1994 is the most savored winter that flipped big time after a lot of warmth in late Nov and first 3 weeks of December. 1975 did too...which I think is our best hope for an analog...since the upcoming pattern does resemble December 1975 in a lot of ways. I just saw that one looking at the numbers (2001). I remember 93, 75 I was too young. The problem I have with all of this is at some point we need to start laying the foundation to our NW. Just personally if we don't see some serious modeling towards colder weather in the next week or two...wow. So not all hope is lost. I think once we get our first event and most get at least advisory snows with some cold afterward with opportunities, we'll hopefully forget this record warm fall. No it actually doesn't. Hopefully it does, but there's actually more evidence of it not snapping after this type of sustained warmth versus flipping to cold for the rest of winter. The winter does seem to have a bit more going for it though in terms of getting cold later on than some of those other horrific years that had a torch November and early December. So overall more seasons that started like this ended up being dead ratters than flipping and being a bonanza? Is there any way of looking at the data and seeing roughly where the cutoff is? IE...in years that torched through 11/30 50% flipped colder, 12/7 40% 12/14 35% etc.... I'm wondering about a threshold where eventually there's such a lack of snowcover to the NW that the winter itself is changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Per twitter Out of the 3710 forecasts made since October 2006, GFS just uncorked its worst 5-day score verifying at 00z November 30, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 A majority of the time, sustained warmth in November is bad...but its not always true. I did post some years that bucked that trend...several of them even continued warm into December as well. December 2001 actually had a pretty big snow event on Dec 8th after much of the region set record highs on Dec 6th...many of them MONTHLY record highs in the low 70s...not just dailies. That winter stunk though. 1993-1994 is the most savored winter that flipped big time after a lot of warmth in late Nov and first 3 weeks of December. 1975 did too...which I think is our best hope for an analog...since the upcoming pattern does resemble December 1975 in a lot of ways. What about winters following 20"+ snowstorms in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Per twitter Out of the 3710 forecasts made since October 2006, GFS just uncorked its worst 5-day score verifying at 00z November 30, 2011. Those upgrades are paying dividends. As it continues to get absolutely rocked by the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Per twitter Out of the 3710 forecasts made since October 2006, GFS just uncorked its worst 5-day score verifying at 00z November 30, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 No it actually doesn't. Hopefully it does, but there's actually more evidence of it not snapping after this type of sustained warmth versus flipping to cold for the rest of winter. The winter does seem to have a bit more going for it though in terms of getting cold later on than some of those other horrific years that had a torch November and early December. Agreed all around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 If you asked me in 2005, I would have said the GFS would be a lot closer to the Euro by late 2011...but it continues to get smoked just as bad as it did back then. I guess one of the few things the U.S. can't do vs Europe is make more accurate weather models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 If you asked me in 2005, I would have said the GFS would be a lot closer to the Euro by late 2011...but it continues to get smoked just as bad as it did back then. I guess one of the few things the U.S. can't do vs Europe is make more accurate weather models. But we are better at bailouts. The way things are going over there we may be able to buy the Euro at a yardsale soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 But we are better at bailouts. The way things are going over there we may be able to buy the Euro at a yardsale soon. Let's not let this stray into a political debate like we saw a few days ago. We all have our leanings. How often is the GFS upgraded? It seems like we are always mocking it after its most recent upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Per twitter Out of the 3710 forecasts made since October 2006, GFS just uncorked its worst 5-day score verifying at 00z November 30, 2011. 3710? Is that just 00z and 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Let's not let this stray into a political debate like we saw a few days ago. We all have our leanings. How often is the GFS upgraded? It seems like we are always mocking it after its most recent upgrade. The GFS seems to be upgraded every year...but so is the Euro...and it continues to embarrass it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 For the first time, I'm starting to worry a little bit....no meltdown, but these next few weeks are BIG and I'd like to see modeling a bit more emphatic. If we make it from now through xmas with hardly any snow, I will really be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Let's not let this stray into a political debate like we saw a few days ago. We all have our leanings. How often is the GFS upgraded? It seems like we are always mocking it after its most recent upgrade. Wasn't a political commentary at all. We gave them Lehman Brothers, maybe in return they'll give us the Euro. Was looking for AO stuff and came across a bunch of other sites. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/weatherblog/20952/----%3EGFS-Arctic-Oscillation-(AO)-Verification-Scary-Trend- Interesting to watch on so many the comments. So does any model package at this point forecast an AO nearing neutral or neg in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 For the first time, I'm starting to worry a little bit....no meltdown, but these next few weeks are BIG and I'd like to see models a bit more emphatic. If we make it from now through xmas with hardly any snow, I will really be worried. Euro Euro Euro ... toss the GFS ... and watch it come in with a raging torch tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro Euro Euro ... toss the GFS ... and watch it come in with a raging torch tonight I'm not freaking out.....but I am starting to grow a tad bit alarmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Looks like '57-'58 was another notable "comeback" year....I had .6" through December (least snowy Dec on record) and ended up with 63.2" on the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm not freaking out.....but I am starting to grow a tad bit alarmed. I'm not comfortable. I think it works out for us in the end, but I'm not comfortable right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1965-66.....3.4" through the end of Dec.....followed by my snowiest Jan on record....ended up with 76.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm not comfortable. I think it works out for us in the end, but I'm not comfortable right now. Same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The political stuff the other day was in the banter thread..... Maybe the Euro will offer some hope in a few minutes. Wasn't a political commentary at all. We gave them Lehman Brothers, maybe in return they'll give us the Euro. Was looking for AO stuff and came across a bunch of other sites. http://www.liveweath...ion-Scary-Trend- Interesting to watch on so many the comments. So does any model package at this point forecast an AO nearing neutral or neg in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Eh....looking through things, as long as we don't go next to snowless in Dec, it shouldn't be a big deal....just have to make sure that we don't pull another November in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 to me, the Gfs looks like more precip behind the front and colder in the precip. during 174 to 180 hours. Yet at 500 MB. it warms right after that to borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Looks like '57-'58 was another notable "comeback" year....I had .6" through December (least snowy Dec on record) and ended up with 63.2" on the season... Most of the slow starts are El Nino years which is a bit worrisome. December El Ninos are worse than La Ninas. We typically have some epic back end winters in El Ninos but not in La Nina....there are exceptions like 2000-2001, 1971-1972, and 1955-1956, but usually its the other way around. We havent even started December yet though, so we'll see if we can get a couple SWFEs in here...if we do, and the cold seeps southward, then we have much less reason to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Euro is developing a big motha low at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Well, 12/6 may be at least our first Waterloo. I like what I see on the OP Euro/GFS. We've got the potential for a pretty big low, now let's hope it works out position wise and not camped over us like the euro. Closed low up through 200mb on the Euro at 180...freaking sweet. We need a monster to form, hopefully we get clobbered it moves by and helps to pump the ridge and dump a ton of cold air south. Stick a fork in the GEFS tonight, they're cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm liking the Euro at 168 hours and beyond for that front/storm. It's further south and trend is better . Not sure why all the complaining earlier. This looks optimistic to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Most of the slow starts are El Nino years which is a bit worrisome. December El Ninos are worse than La Ninas. We typically have some epic back end winters in El Ninos but not in La Nina....there are exceptions like 2000-2001, 1971-1972, and 1955-1956, but usually its the other way around. We havent even started December yet though, so we'll see if we can get a couple SWFEs in here...if we do, and the cold seeps southward, then we have much less reason to worry True....I was just briefly scanning years with disregard for ENSO or anything. Christ, it's humid.....61.3\61 I'm putting a fan inthe window, then back to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm liking the Euro at 168 hours and beyond for that front/storm. It's further south and trend is better . Not sure why all the complaining earlier. This looks optimistic to me It has a chance, but the pattern overall still looks pretty cruddy...we'll have some chances, but it doesn't mean we have to like the pattern....we often have chances of snow with a crappy pattern because of our latitude...but its like playing craps against loaded dice. Maybe we fair better than NYC or PHL...maybe 40-45% vs 15-20%, but it still stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The pattern overall absolutely stinks for sustained cold...the Euro hates the EPO ridge..it disintegrates it very fast. The ensembles did it too at 12z. This screams transient cold. Narrow bands of cold air when the trough swings through only to be replaced by PAC puke shortly after like we often see in terrible patterns. Hopefully the ensembles are correct in keeping a bit of a PNA ridge, because if they don't, then we are staring directly in the face of a pattern that resembles many a horrific December. I'm not ready to call it that yet, but I am certainly weary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.