dryslot Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Don't have to go back to many years to see how a similar pattern played out up here as 07-08 is a pretty good match thats keeps being mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If I have time / motivation tonight, I might whip out a full discussion on the long range Euro, as it is quite intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If I have time / motivation tonight, I might whip out a full discussion on the long range Euro, as it is quite intriguing Like to see it Sam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 SW winds and Buffalo will get annihilated since the lakes are primed and ready to go...hope you plan to get out there before the even starts crankin! We're leaving early Saturday morning /hvy hvy drinking Sat nite in the bars/ tailgate and Bills game Sunday/ out again after game and come home like a corpse on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If I have time / motivation tonight, I might whip out a full discussion on the long range Euro, as it is quite intriguing If you could Great to watch/read your stuff. Very mature thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The Euro ensembles have a 2-3 day window of the EPO going negative but then it goes away....this should be enough to dump some decent cold into Canada and will give us a shot at some overrunning type events...but it looks like the pattern becomes more WC trough dominant late in the period after Dec 10 which would push the gradient north...we still probably have chances in that setup but its a little more precarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Maybe the Central NY people will finally put their money where their mouth is and sponsor such a LES chase this year. A lot of talk on the Upstate side, but the ideas never come to fruition. I'd go.... always sorry I missed that chase they all did in February 2007. It's only a two hour drive for me..... I thnk we should arrange a 10 day trip to the tug every year. They worship snow there Ad we'd be right at home....until spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Maybe the Central NY people will finally put their money where their mouth is and sponsor such a LES chase this year. A lot of talk on the Upstate side, but the ideas never come to fruition. I'd go.... always sorry I missed that chase they all did in February 2007. It's only a two hour drive for me..... How easy are those to pin down? Time/location must be a litte tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 It's certainly something that would have to be pre-planned such as motels, etc. in the prime snow belt, and then be ready to schedule it with a small window ...not like the SNE GTG's where people vote for weeks on the locale/time. I guess it just worked out on a weekend in '07 and that was a long duration epic event. How easy are those to pin down? Time/location must be a litte tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The Euro ensembles have a 2-3 day window of the EPO going negative but then it goes away....this should be enough to dump some decent cold into Canada and will give us a shot at some overrunning type events...but it looks like the pattern becomes more WC trough dominant late in the period after Dec 10 which would push the gradient north...we still probably have chances in that setup but its a little more precarious. Does it look like the 00z euro ensembles after d10? Also is the WC trough deep or broad and is the SE ridge amplified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 12z ensembles are sort of discouraging for sustained cold/winter with a flattening of the ridge in the N Pac and a trend toward troffiness over the western US by day 15. No doubt we'll get a cold snap around day 10 but I think it will be relatively transient. As Will mentioned a few pages back the amplification of that western ridge is important as we don't want the storm track to be over N NE or the Great Lakes with a SE ridge flexing its muscles. Either way at least there is hope for something wintry in the day 10-20 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 12z ensembles are sort of discouraging for sustained cold/winter with a flattening of the ridge in the N Pac and a trend toward troffiness over the western US by day 15. No doubt we'll get a cold snap around day 10 but I think it will be relatively transient. As Will mentioned a few pages back the amplification of that western ridge is important as we don't want the storm track to be over N NE or the Great Lakes with a SE ridge flexing its muscles. Either way at least there is hope for something wintry in the day 10-20 range. It looks very SWFE to me later in the ensembles. At least Canada chills off. Just can't afford an old school Will Smith flat top ridge..as it is right now...looks decent for NNE imo. The questions are more for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 It looks very SWFE to me later in the ensembles. At least Canada chills off. Just can't afford an old school Will Smith flat top ridge..as it is right now...looks decent for NNE imo. The questions are more for SNE. We're fine.. even if they're snow to ice or rain scenarios . White Christmas FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 We're fine.. even if they're snow to ice or rain scenarios . White Christmas FTW I'm just dying to get something where I'm like 32F and snowing while you pelt away at 21F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 It looks very SWFE to me later in the ensembles. At least Canada chills off. Just can't afford an old school Will Smith flat top ridge..as it is right now...looks decent for NNE imo. The questions are more for SNE. Yeah agreed. We gotta be careful we are right on the line of getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I'm just dying to get something where I'm like 32F and snowing while you pelt away at 21F. Dumbfounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 How much for MS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The index site is toast, saw someone posted the NAO graph, that was wrong and so is this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If I lived in WI or MI I'd be thrilled with my prospects the next two weeks. Where will you be taking Jerry for dinner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 The index site is toast, saw someone posted the NAO graph, that was wrong and so is this The point was to show how bad the models performed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The point was to show how bad the models performed. Yea they have been horrible but the graph is wrong too, wonder what's up with that site unless the AO really snapped. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 while we are going into a better pattern with more seasonable temps and at times below seasonable i cannot say that i would be surprised if we / NNE sees very little snow the first 10-14 days of december. i'm not saying that is going to happen, but at this point i would say its 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 while we are going into a better pattern with more seasonable temps and at times below seasonable i cannot say that i would be surprised if we / NNE sees very little snow the first 10-14 days of december. i'm not saying that is going to happen, but at this point i would say its 50/50. Ya I agree with you. That particular system around Dec 5th did have some potential but it looks like it's dwindling for my area and it's probably going to be liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Ya I agree with you. That particular system around Dec 5th did have some potential but it looks like it's dwindling for my area and it's probably going to be liquid well toronto is a pretty different climate from NNE and up here though. toronto is more like SNE without the coastal storms but with more cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 well toronto is a pretty different climate from NNE and up here though. toronto is more like SNE without the coastal storms but with more cold. Ya but we can still cash in with those gradient patterns ala Dec 2007 Remember 12/15/07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I was going to try to run through the whole progression, but I don't have time. Anyway we're looking at the 12z Euro day 10 map here. First, we have s/w #2 southeast of Newfoundland. (This s/w is climbing over the east Pacific ridge right now). Ridging is getting amplified downstream of this wave, with decent low pressure in the north Atlantic pumping warm advection across the Azores and toward Iceland. At the very least, we're looking at the start of an east based negative NAO here. Further upstream, we have s/w #5 diving through the Great Lakes. (This s/w is progged to climb over the east Pacific ridge at day 7). The Euro takes this disturbance from the Arctic circle to the Great Lakes in 48 hours, with a well defined arctic connection blasting into the northern Plains. The high over ND at day 10 originates from northern Alaska 48 hours earlier.Notice that the s/w is STILL positively tilted, indicating it's propensity for diving and digging. There is also still CAA behind s/w #2 ... this continues to lower heights ahead of s/w #5, preventing it from breaking early. At the very least, this is a HUGE arctic outbreak for the northern Plains, Great Lakes, AND Northeast. But what is this coming over the top of the east Pacific ridge now? S/w #6. Note the necessary characteristics of this pattern: 1) The ridge is of sufficient amplitude AND wavelength that it doesn't progress with the incoming s/w, but allows it to climb over the top. 2) The cut off low over the Southwest (s/w #4) promotes continuous anticyclonic wave breaking, so again, s/w ridging of Pacific origin cannot progress eastward. 3) The massive dump of arctic air into central Canada and the northern Plains, lowering heights. If this pattern were extrapolated forward, s/w #2 would progress toward the Azores while the thermal wave gets all wrapped up, with ridging amplifying over Greenland and Iceland in -NAO fashion. S//w #5 would drag the whole polar vortex toward Newfoundland and Labrador ... 50/50, with strong cold arctic high pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeast. S/w #4 ejects eastward, and we probably get a decent overrunning snow event, maybe even suppressed too far south, on the 9th. S/w #6 comes barreling southward along the Lee of the Rockies while ridging over western North America amplifies significantly. Ridging is now scoured out of the southeast U.S. with the southwest cut off ejected eastward, and a -NAO developing. S/w #6 is free to become a monster along the Gulf coast, and track northeast across the benchmark, pounding I95 on the 11th ... but that's one run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 0z OP GFS is limping in through about 150 hours. Limping being the operative word. Cold less impressive and like many of said appears to target west...at least through 4-5 days. What was a raging outbreak of cold a few runs ago is now "seasona" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Too bad we have zero blocking. Otherwise, we'd be talking about snow for next week. Alas, it'll likely be showers and 50F. EDIT: Hmmm...northern stream remains separate from southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 0z OP GFS is limping in through about 150 hours. Limping being the operative word. Cold less impressive and like many of said appears to target west...at least through 4-5 days. What was a raging outbreak of cold a few runs ago is now "seasona" .... there are no changes with respect to the impressiveness of the cold. If anything the 00z GFS is looking much better than the runs earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Lol at the shortwave taking the express down the ridge on the west coast at 162 hours. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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