OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 In December....I think you're alone on that. Dude, I'm thinking flattening ridge toward the end of the month ... and polar fields start to get a little perturbed right around New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 00z GFS not looking too great for next week so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 00z GFS not looking too great for next week so far Prospects for Lake effect in Buf look weak too. Kind of blows for Kev. WHICH reminds me of the pattern creep I was talking about the the blunting of cold. A few days ago I remember his comment which was fully supported by the Buf NWS forecast of it being cloudy and 40 there Sunday. The new point and click is 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Prospects for Lake effect in Buf look weak too. Kind of blows for Kev. WHICH reminds me of the pattern creep I was talking about the the blunting of cold. A few days ago I remember his comment which was fully supported by the Buf NWS forecast of it being cloudy and 40 there Sunday. The new point and click is 50. At not one point has the GFS op or ensembles impressed me with any storm opportunities. The Euro has done the opposite. I'm guessing the less exciting version verifies, but I am interested to see how the GFS and Euro stack up against each other next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 At not one point has the GFS op or ensembles impressed me with any storm opportunities. The Euro has done the opposite. I'm guessing the less exciting version verifies, but I am interested to see how the GFS and Euro stack up against each other next week Departures for Plymouth today are going to be epic. It's 65 degrees here at 11 and the dewpoint is pushing 60. It's almost somewhat muggy. At some point it has to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 At not one point has the GFS op or ensembles impressed me with any storm opportunities. The Euro has done the opposite. I'm guessing the less exciting version verifies, but I am interested to see how the GFS and Euro stack up against each other next week And you're right the GFS is a train wreck through the first week of December. Be well above normal for at least another 7-7.5 days. That's just nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Departures for Plymouth today are going to be epic. It's 65 degrees here at 11 and the dewpoint is pushing 60. It's almost somewhat muggy. At some point it has to change. I went out for coffee in between classes and actually needed the ac in the car today...car thermo read 68 at school around 215! Crazy times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I went out for coffee in between classes and actually needed the ac in the car today...car thermo read 68 at school around 215! Crazy times. I debated about getting an iced coffee this morning. Still went hot, but had to think about it ... Good story, I know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 And you're right the GFS is a train wreck through the first week of December. Be well above normal for at least another 7-7.5 days. That's just nuts. Besides the outside chance at a normal day Saturday, we've all known that Tuesday/Wednesday next week is when we finally feel some winter air. Now hopefully it doesn't get postponed any further because its been long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I went out for coffee in between classes and actually needed the ac in the car today...car thermo read 68 at school around 215! Crazy times. GFS ignites some serious snows as the nasty u/l feature rolls through. Still think there is something to this, but it's going to be toasty for the most part between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That's an absolute beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS ignites some serious snows as the nasty u/l feature rolls through. Still think there is something to this, but it's going to be toasty for the most part between now and then. 976 low in central Canada with a wimpy warm sector. I'm going out on a limb and saying thats too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Wow the 00z gfs warms up pretty good on Monday before the front comes through...has eastern areas approaching 60F when 12z had it approaching "only" 50F. Nice to see the chilly air w/some snow filter in on Tuesday night though, hopefully that comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS ignites some serious snows as the nasty u/l feature rolls through. Still think there is something to this, but it's going to be toasty for the most part between now and then. Classic "how much falls before the cold gets there" situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Anafrontal snow ain't gonna happen. If you look at relative humidity at H7 for hours 177 and 180, you see it's pretty dry. Now I know it's far out, but still. Like Ray said...ain't gonna happen 98 percent of the time. Save me the pain from hearing Gutner say that 'the northern ORH hills may see a few flakes as the low departs. Nothing around here close to the city..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Besides the outside chance at a normal day Saturday, we've all known that Tuesday/Wednesday next week is when we finally feel some winter air. Now hopefully it doesn't get postponed any further because its been long enough. There was a lot more speculation of it being close to or below normal in the coming days. Go back and read through the earlier part of these threads. I'm not pointing fingers at all....things change, just pointing out that things have muted on the cold side as they approach, and not been warm enough on the other side. The models want to give us the outside shot of a producing , unorthodox snow event next week. What's staggering is how fast it just gets mauled NE after sitting for a day or so up NNE of Maine. Pattern just ejects it like a bugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 There was a lot more speculation of it being close to or below normal in the coming days. Go back and read through the earlier part of these threads. I'm not pointing fingers at all....things change, just pointing out that things have muted on the cold side as they approach, and not been warm enough on the other side. The models want to give us the outside shot of a producing , unorthodox snow event next week. What's staggering is how fast it just gets mauled NE after sitting for a day or so up NNE of Maine. Pattern just ejects it like a bugger Oh, I agree that originally this Friday/Saturday was thought to be below normal, but nothing more then just a few days. Now we probably will still be slightly above even on Saturday, so hopefully we can get the cold to sustain itself next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Anafrontal snow ain't gonna happen. If you look at relative humidity at H7 for hours 177 and 180, you see it's pretty dry. Now I know it's far out, but still. Like Ray said...ain't gonna happen 98 percent of the time. I really don't think that's what the GFS is doing. Others can go into detail and tell us yes/no, but I think it's mainly in response to what's going on aloft, not so much moisture left behind a front. There's a considerable lull post front before the upper features erupt. It's the GFS, it's in la la land, but there's clearly a lot of energy around and the models have provided a few varying solutions which have delivered snow in SNE. 1 or 2 GFS runs, 1 Euro run. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 messenger...insane to see 66 degrees nearing midnight (just 24 hour before DECEMBER 1st) It just makes you think that there will be a snap back to reality soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Classic "everything falls before the cold gets there" situation... fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 messenger...insane to see 66 degrees nearing midnight (just 24 hour before DECEMBER 1st) It just makes you think that there will be a snap back to reality soon. I don't know, the GFS and others depress me again tonight. We need a major shift...the guys have been saying this Will/Scott/Ryan all along....we may have opportunities but there's nothing on the maps showing a major move to winter. I think the 0z Euro may turn ugly too aside of that thread on the 6-8. I looked at the GFS 170-19x I have no idea what it's driving all that precip with but its' right at the point the 5h is going pretty negative and I know that has a lot to do with it. After that the OP GFS looks near seasonable with us strattling the line. My fear is it looked like that for this coming period a week ago too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 fixed Shhh, I like to keep things diplomatic ... Ray's anafrontal assessment was spot on - 90% of the time, they don't materialize. Whenever you hear, "Rain changing to snow before ending", expect zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 fixed If you were really fixing it you would have put the word forecasted in there too... It just hit 66 here again, low was 51 for a few minutes after midnight before it shot to 55. Would have been much cooler to have a high of 70 and a low of 55 a few days before December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I don't know, the GFS and others depress me again tonight. We need a major shift...the guys have been saying this Will/Scott/Ryan all along....we may have opportunities but there's nothing on the maps showing a major move to winter. I think the 0z Euro may turn ugly too aside of that thread on the 6-8. I looked at the GFS 170-19x I have no idea what it's driving all that precip with but its' right at the point the 5h is going pretty negative and I know that has a lot to do with it. After that the OP GFS looks near seasonable with us strattling the line. My fear is it looked like that for this coming period a week ago too. I agree. There has yet to be a strong push to go decidedly towards winter yet. There is still plenty of time to change things. I used to think getting the ground covered before my bday (12/18) was a gift when I was little. Lately, it's been common. Ray's over/under for his backyard is 12" for DEC. I'd go under, but I know that one good storm and a light event gets him there. Quick question...do patterns in Nov start to become semi-permanent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I agree. There has yet to be a strong push to go decidedly towards winter yet. There is still plenty of time to change things. I used to think getting the ground covered before my bday (12/18) was a gift when I was little. Lately, it's been common. Ray's over/under for his backyard is 12" for DEC. I'd go under, but I know that one good storm and a light event gets him there. Quick question...do patterns in Nov start to become semi-permanent? That's a question for Will re the history of this type of weather and patterns. You have to wonder if there has ever been anything like what we've seen with the mega snow and then an inferno ever since. Personally the pattern seems to be mainly warm for 2-3 weeks followed by a more impressive cold opportunity and associated storm threat...than more warmth. If we have a storm threat around 12/6 that delivers significant snow somewhere in NE it will be repeating about every 15-20 days on average. Sure it'll get colder because it has to. Boston is +18 today. As far as what I remember dating back to the 70s...if it doesn't change soon and we're into week 3 of December with this same nonsense.....and the same ugly maps I'd say we're forked. The record high for Boston was 83 in November, 76 in December and I think 72...the numbers are within a degree...so clearly it's going to step down considerably even if we were to maintain a similar pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The Gfs tonight is just tragic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That's a question for Will re the history of this type of weather and patterns. You have to wonder if there has ever been anything like what we've seen with the mega snow and then an inferno ever since. Personally the pattern seems to be mainly warm for 2-3 weeks followed by a more impressive cold opportunity and associated storm threat...than more warmth. If we have a storm threat around 12/6 that delivers significant snow somewhere in NE it will be repeating about every 15-20 days on average. Sure it'll get colder because it has to. Boston is +18 today. As far as what I remember dating back to the 70s...if it doesn't change soon and we're into week 3 of December with this same nonsense.....and the same ugly maps I'd say we're forked. The record high for Boston was 83 in November, 76 in December and I think 72...the numbers are within a degree...so clearly it's going to step down considerably even if we were to maintain a similar pattern. Yes...By mid Jan my avg high is 35. So a +18 degree day would be 53. If we maintain this nonsense, that will feel chilly by then. We'll have to see what the ensembles show. This weekend's cold shot has been largely muted. Hopefully that doesn't become the theme of winter 11-12. Boy, we are stuck in a rut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That's a question for Will re the history of this type of weather and patterns. You have to wonder if there has ever been anything like what we've seen with the mega snow and then an inferno ever since. Personally the pattern seems to be mainly warm for 2-3 weeks followed by a more impressive cold opportunity and associated storm threat...than more warmth. If we have a storm threat around 12/6 that delivers significant snow somewhere in NE it will be repeating about every 15-20 days on average. Sure it'll get colder because it has to. Boston is +18 today. As far as what I remember dating back to the 70s...if it doesn't change soon and we're into week 3 of December with this same nonsense.....and the same ugly maps I'd say we're forked. The record high for Boston was 83 in November, 76 in December and I think 72...the numbers are within a degree...so clearly it's going to step down considerably even if we were to maintain a similar pattern. A majority of the time, sustained warmth in November is bad...but its not always true. I did post some years that bucked that trend...several of them even continued warm into December as well. December 2001 actually had a pretty big snow event on Dec 8th after much of the region set record highs on Dec 6th...many of them MONTHLY record highs in the low 70s...not just dailies. That winter stunk though. 1993-1994 is the most savored winter that flipped big time after a lot of warmth in late Nov and first 3 weeks of December. 1975 did too...which I think is our best hope for an analog...since the upcoming pattern does resemble December 1975 in a lot of ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 A majority of the time, sustained warmth in November is bad...but its not always true. I did post some years that bucked that trend...several of them even continued warm into December as well. December 2001 actually had a pretty big snow event on Dec 8th after much of the region set record highs on Dec 6th...many of them MONTHLY record highs in the low 70s...not just dailies. That winter stunk though. 1993-1994 is the most savored winter that flipped big time after a lot of warmth in late Nov and first 3 weeks of December. 1975 did too...which I think is our best hope for an analog...since the upcoming pattern does resemble December 1975 in a lot of ways. So not all hope is lost. I think once we get our first event and most get at least advisory snows with some cold afterward with opportunities, we'll hopefully forget this record warm fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The rubber band has to snap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.