Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i learned that lesson as a kid...never ever happened. Bruce Sch-can'tspellhislastname-gler would call for 1-3" on the backside of the storm and it would ultimately end up p. cloudy, 28 and howling nw wind instead. Flash freezes the puddles at the bottom of the driveway as we waited for the bus expecting a snow day. Best backside snow though was in 05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 i learned that lesson as a kid...never ever happened. Bruce Sch-can'tspellhislastname-gler would call for 1-3" on the backside of the storm and it would ultimately end up p. cloudy, 28 and howling nw wind instead. It sometimes will in the hills...but hardly ever here. That and the anafrontal bull$hit I always tune out......the one\decade that it happens, I'm pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Flash freezes the puddles at the bottom of the driveway as we waited for the bus expecting a snow day. Best backside snow though was in 05. March...yes. You can usually weed out the real deals....if they are talking about a backside 1-3"...it's usually illusory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I am more confidant than ever tonight, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It sometimes will in the hills...but hardly ever here. That and the anafrontal bull$hit I always tune it out......the one\decade that it happens, I'm pleasantly surprised. Yea seldom if ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Riding the Euro all day everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Riding the Euro all day everyday It will give us some chances, but nothing great.....verbatim it was nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What do you make of the GFS and Euro ENS dropping the AO to below 0. I do not see it reflected on maps. Interesting ridge in Russia. I sense a change in modeling. Get the feeling the abandon ship dudes will wish they never jumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The pattern looks like a crappier version of December 2007...which might not be good for us since although we had a great month, it was by the skin of our teeth. A watered down version of that pattern probably stinks....but hopefully the -EPO can dump enough cold air into the northern tier that we cash in. We'll certainly have a couple chances I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It will give us some chances, but nothing great.....verbatim it was nothing. Yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It will give us some chances, but nothing great.....verbatim it was nothing. E Pacific ridge, N Atlantic ridge (pseudo -NAO), and floods the CONUS with arctic air. A number of chances to cash in. Can't say it's New England all the time, but the Northeast quadrant of the U.S. is in for some wintry treats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yeah unlike 07, No real cold in place in canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The monotony of this horrific pattern has been so polarizing.....so many folks are either cancelling winter, or hallucinating an epic period on the horizon this month into existence. Christ, extremely warm to normal....no more, no less.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yeah unlike 07, No real cold in place in canada Yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The monotony of this horrific pattern has been so polarizing.....so many folks are either cancelling winter, or hallucinating an epic period on the horizon this month into existence. Christ, extremely warm to normal....no more, no less.... Who is calling for an epic period. Have not seen anyone call for that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yet Should have said early december, Looks like some gets dumped mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Yeah unlike 07, No real cold in place in canada It should dump in there fine when the EPO goes negative for a time...but for New England, we don't have the PV as far SE in the Davis Straight as that month, so we might not get quite the protection from cold highs north of Maine like we did in that pattern...Ray's fetish....it might be weaker "protection". Still, every event will have its own nuances, so its hard to get too specific. We'll have a couple chances. I don't think we all quite appreciate how cold the first 3 weeks of Dec 2007 was...18 of the first 19 days were below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It should dump in there fine when the EPO goes negative for a time...but for New England, we don't have the PV as far SE in the Davis Straight as that month, so we might not get quite the protection from cold highs north of Maine like we did in that pattern...Ray's fetish....it might be weaker "protection". Still, every event will have its own nuances, so its hard to get too specific. We'll have a couple chances. I don't think we all quite appreciate how cold the first 3 weeks of Dec 2007 was...18 of the first 19 days were below average. My over\under on this month for mby is 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think one reason we don't think of Dec 2007 as being insanely cold the first 3 weeks is because we never really got an arctic blast of cold..it was just consistently negative departures of like -8F, -7F, -10F, -6F, -4F, -9F...that type of stuff. We didn't get blasted with a -20F departure or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What do you make of the GFS and Euro ENS dropping the AO to below 0. I do not see it reflected on maps. Interesting ridge in Russia. I sense a change in modeling. Get the feeling the abandon ship dudes will wish they never jumped. Broad area of positive height anomalies across Russia, with long wave ridging over the east Pacific and north Atlantic. Not perfect, but this mass distribution pushes all the cold air in the Northern Hemisphere toward two areas: North America and Europe. FWIW, the Euro has slow warming in the stratosphere over the next 10 days ... still a strong cold vortex. The easterly QBO is also making good headway recently. The Mid Atlantic might have a rough time in December, but abandoning ship in New England is folly. Abandoning ship for the entire winter in the Mid Atlantic is also uncalled for. Pleasant surprises ahead I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It should dump in there fine when the EPO goes negative for a time...but for New England, we don't have the PV as far SE in the Davis Straight as that month, so we might not get quite the protection from cold highs north of Maine like we did in that pattern...Ray's fetish....it might be weaker "protection". Still, every event will have its own nuances, so its hard to get too specific. We'll have a couple chances. I don't think we all quite appreciate how cold the first 3 weeks of Dec 2007 was...18 of the first 19 days were below average. Yeah, We had 6 storms between Dec 3rd and the 20th in 07 totaling 27" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It should dump in there fine when the EPO goes negative for a time...but for New England, we don't have the PV as far SE in the Davis Straight as that month, so we might not get quite the protection from cold highs north of Maine like we did in that pattern...Ray's fetish....it might be weaker "protection". Still, every event will have its own nuances, so its hard to get too specific. We'll have a couple chances. I don't think we all quite appreciate how cold the first 3 weeks of Dec 2007 was...18 of the first 19 days were below average. Very different form of the NAO ahead. Dec 07 was perhaps the most favorable +NAO we could ask for. Now, we're looking at possibly a North Atlantic ridge building ... another semi-favorable form of a +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think one reason we don't think of Dec 2007 as being insanely cold the first 3 weeks is because we never really got an arctic blast of cold..it was just consistently negative departures of like -8F, -7F, -10F, -6F, -4F, -9F...that type of stuff. We didn't get blasted with a -20F departure or anything. Delayed but not denied. I like the ENS look with neg departures 850 s , looks very 94 ish to me. I would not be surprised if thicknesses are much lower than shown with abundant LL cold. Also would not be surprised if you get an ice storm. Man it's been dumping rain here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Very different form of the NAO ahead. Dec 07 was perhaps the most favorable +NAO we could ask for. Now, we're looking at possibly a North Atlantic ridge building ... another semi-favorable form of a +NAO. N ATL ridge isn't bad...we saw it in Dec 1975 and much of BOS metro and SNE got clocked pretty good with snow and cold...but it looks like it might be transient and won't stay there. Hopefully it does because it is an effective transporter of cold...its just not a very good road block for lakes cutters, but we can handle a bit of a W track if we have cold available...hence our SWFE pattern. I'm just worried our cold supply will be shut off too quick with the EPO ridge flattening out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 All the positive snow cover anomalies are on the other side of the pole. The cold airmass will be shoved into the western hemisphere next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 N ATL ridge isn't bad...we saw it in Dec 1975 and much of BOS metro and SNE got clocked pretty good with snow and cold...but it looks like it might be transient and won't stay there. Hopefully it does because it is an effective transporter of cold...its just not a very good road block for lakes cutters, but we can handle a bit of a W track if we have cold available...hence our SWFE pattern. I'm just worried our cold supply will be shut off too quick with the EPO ridge flattening out. What do you make of the euro ensembles past d10 keeping a vortex over Baffin Island? Do you think that will keep heights low across the GL/NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 What do you make of the euro ensembles past d10 keeping a vortex over Baffin Island? Do you think that will keep heights low across the GL/NE? Its marginal...the vortex is stretched enough N/S that it might do ok...but it would be better if it was further south by 100-200 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 N ATL ridge isn't bad...we saw it in Dec 1975 and much of BOS metro and SNE got clocked pretty good with snow and cold...but it looks like it might be transient and won't stay there. Hopefully it does because it is an effective transporter of cold...its just not a very good road block for lakes cutters, but we can handle a bit of a W track if we have cold available...hence our SWFE pattern. I'm just worried our cold supply will be shut off too quick with the EPO ridge flattening out. Definitely a concern, but that's in the fairly distant future. As long as we maintain above normal heights over the GOA, it leaves the door open to possibilities. I also think that not long after the ridge flattens / retrogrades, we see the polar fields start to get shaken up, so any warm up will be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Definitely a concern, but that's in the fairly distant future. As long as we maintain above normal heights over the GOA, it leaves the door open to possibilities. I also think that not long after the ridge flattens / retrogrades, we see the polar fields start to get shaken up, so any warm up will be short lived. In December....I think you're alone on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The monotony of this horrific pattern has been so polarizing.....so many folks are either cancelling winter, or hallucinating an epic period on the horizon this month into existence. Christ, extremely warm to normal....no more, no less.... Stay up all night for 20 degree lows on the 7 day Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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