CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 FWIW I think the euro op hasn't had the best handle on the Pacific pattern going forward..especially after d8. I think the GFS op has done better...but again it's another reason why it is dangerous to post operational progs beyond d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 I challenege you to find a worse one. ^0's and 70's for days. a/c humming, bugs smashing on windshields, birlds flocking north/grass green/Pollen covering everything in Dorcester,Mass, folks sweating as they leave gyms, fat hairy arms slung ouyt windows, pony o's let out with long hair flowing over faces/frisbees flying across rivers etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 when is someone going to post the 18z gfs ft plus it dumps next wednesday with the h5 closed low swings through...ala 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 FWIW I think the euro op hasn't had the best handle on the Pacific pattern going forward..especially after d8. I think the GFS op has done better...but again it's another reason why it is dangerous to post operational progs beyond d7. Just looking at verification, the euro has been destroying at day5, but drops off pretty fast out to day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Lol, the 18z GFS Norlun's interior eastern SNE with about 10" of snow 180-200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Just looking at verification, the euro has been destroying at day5, but drops off pretty fast out to day 8 I usually could care less how the op runs are doing beyond day 7 for my purposes...all I care about is which model performs best in the final 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Lol, the 18z GFS Norlun's interior eastern SNE with about 10" of snow 180-200 hours. Man you love the 18z GFS. I've never seen anything like it. We've seen you base so many forecasts off of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Man the winter Jet cranks next week, incoming. Good times ahead good times. XXX 100% agree although even MRG must be down to just random snowbanks at this point. All we can ask for at this point is the opportunity for frozen and temps not in the 60s most days. Yup, still a few piles but it's been ugly. Not to worrybthough as the pendulum is already swing back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Man you love the 18z GFS. I've never seen anything like it. We've seen you base so many forecasts off of it. ha ha, keep dreamin'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well we have the 00z euro and one run of the 18z gfs...best combo ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well the 18z op GFS is muuuuch closer to the Euro ... more energy hanging back in the SW, and the same s/w is starting to take over. We need the first trough to move east faster though Yes, Or slow down the s/w moving across the SE, Rather see ther front push thru quicker though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Will, a few weeks back I asked you what Winter in the early-mid 90's featured a gradient pattern with frequent 6-12", the storms got on a 5-7 day rythm. I didn't right down the Winter you thought it might have. Was that '93-'94? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 when is someone going to post the 18z gfs ft plus it dumps next wednesday with the h5 closed low swings through...ala 0z euro Something big is coming around that day or two. There's a significant opportunity there. XXX Yup, still a few piles but it's been ugly. Not to worrybthough as the pendulum is already swing back. It has to Pete if it swung any further the other way we'd be putting out forest fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Will, a few weeks back I asked you what Winter in the early-mid 90's featured a gradient pattern with frequent 6-12", the storms got on a 5-7 day rythm. I didn't right down the Winter you thought it might have. Was that '93-'94? Yes '93-'94...its possible it could have been '92-'93...esp mid Jan through Mar '93...that had a gradient too...but '93-'94 was more classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 We are still a ways away and are going to see some dramatically different solutions. In addition, things aren't that favorable surrounding this system. However...this is one of the more odd synoptic setups I've seen depicted at this range. The southeast ridge pumping up could actually allow something to get going along the baroclinic zone if things are timed perfectly. Also, watch the southern vorticity involvement, which on this run is all the way over New Mexico. I guess it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The gfs is pretty cold late next week. Looks like highs don't reach 40 at all until maybe Saturday in some areas...looks like Wednesday is a day where the interior struggles to reach freezing...and MRG posts about how its in the teens with flurries at 2K. Then again...40-44 is more like average this time of year...but it would be nice to get a 3 day period of below normal, but its still day 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Just looking at verification, the euro has been destroying at day5, but drops off pretty fast out to day 8 Euro has completely owned the GFS at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yes '93-'94...its possible it could have been '92-'93...esp mid Jan through Mar '93...that had a gradient too...but '93-'94 was more classic. I think I'm actually remembering the winter of '92-'93. I see that both Winters had nice March snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think I'm actually remembering the winter of '92-'93. I see that both Winters had nice March snowfall. It was 1993-94. A warm look and progs all winter but ice cold and deep snow with q major event about every 5-7 days. 1992-3 was similar but far more variable and it had big coastals including supertorm '"93. I was up in ME today for a meeting. A nce trend in the modeling today. Looks like my dates have legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It was 1993-94. A warm look and progs all winter but ice cold and deep snow with q major event about every 5-7 days. 1992-3 was similar but far more variable and it had big coastals including supertorm '"93. I was up in ME today for a meeting. A nce trend in the modeling today. Looks like my dates have legs. It was def. 93-94.... I usually use this website to look back at prior seasons. Although it doesn't have everystorm cause the guy is from NJ it has most of them. If you look through there, it was 6-12 after 6-12 after 6-12... I'd pay a lot of money to go back to 95-96 again. What a freaking weenie season that was... literally hugging the NCEP site every day from Nov til April http://www.njfreeway...07/Weather.html ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRG said in response to my post... "Why do you want to know what happened way down in NJ? " To MRG since I'm 5/dayed.... it has a national radar, regional radar, and snow total images of the storm for the entire northeast... Its just a quick easy website to go back to if anyone mentions a storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It was 1993-94. A warm look and progs all winter but ice cold and deep snow with q major event about every 5-7 days. 1992-3 was similar but far more variable and it had big coastals including supertorm '"93. I was up in ME today for a meeting. A nce trend in the modeling today. Looks like my dates have legs. The 2nd half of '92-'93 was quite a big gradient, particularly Feb '93 and Mar '93. I think PVD finished with 39" that winter while BOS had 84"...that is a hell of a gradient. I think it was the Mar 4-5, 1993 storm where BOS-ORH got smoked and PVD was mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It was 1993-94. A warm look and progs all winter but ice cold and deep snow with q major event about every 5-7 days. 1992-3 was similar but far more variable and it had big coastals including supertorm '"93. I was up in ME today for a meeting. A nce trend in the modeling today. Looks like my dates have legs. I think i remeber you saying you were going to be in portland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I am more confidant than ever tonight, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 It was 1993-94. A warm look and progs all winter but ice cold and deep snow with q major event about every 5-7 days. 1992-3 was similar but far more variable and it had big coastals including supertorm '"93. I was up in ME today for a meeting. A nce trend in the modeling today. Looks like my dates have legs. Yup, looking good jerry. AWT. It was def. 93-94.... I usually use this website to look back at prior seasons. Although it doesn't have everystorm cause the guy is from NJ it has most of them. If you look through there, it was 6-12 after 6-12 after 6-12... I'd pay a lot of money to go back to 95-96 again. What a freaking weenie season that was... literally hugging the NCEP site every day from Nov til April http://www.njfreeway...07/Weather.html Why do you want to know what happened way down in NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I think i remeber you saying you were going to be in portland Good memory! Portland has always been among my favorite places. I wonder if I could displace my family.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Good memory! Portland has always been among my favorite places. I wonder if I could displace my family.....lol I usually get down there a few times to visit the old port Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I am more confidant than ever tonight, game on. Patience is a virtue. Never in doubt as far as I'm concerned. We got off to a fast start and we'll build on the early success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Although not heavy, there's actually a decent sized area of light precip on the "cold side" of the storm as some serious cold air gets involved. But the surface low tracks over New Hampshire, so i'm not sure I would buy into any frozen precip if it were to take that track. That crap never works out..."back side snow".....fairly tale 98% of the time. I don't care whether the model actually suggests it or not because it won't happen, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Quite the conundrum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 That crap never works out..."back side snow".....fairly tale 98% of the time. I don't care whether the model actually suggests it or not because it won't happen, regardless. i learned that lesson as a kid...never ever happened. Bruce Sch-can'tspellhislastname-gler would call for 1-3" on the backside of the storm and it would ultimately end up p. cloudy, 28 and howling nw wind instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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