Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 per the euro on that day? no. Beforehand..Dryslot said it was rain to snow in SNE. Only way we'll verify in the 20's is with snowcover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 To be honest I didn't even know it did. I rarely look at op runs past day 7. What is interesting is the sudden appearance on most modeling of some sort of Neg NAO from time to time. Will it happen?, who knows but the fact it pops up is a sign I think that modeling is picking up on some sort of change to the current positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Beforehand..Dryslot said it was rain to snow in SNE. Only way we'll verify in the 20's is with snowcover i didn't look that close but looked to me like rain ending as rain. maybe some flurries/snow showers in the higher terrain or of W MA / VT ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 What is interesting is the sudden appearance on most modeling of some sort of Neg NAO from time to time. Will it happen?, who knows but the fact it pops up is a sign I think that modeling is picking up on some sort of change to the current positive. Yeah GEFS definitely look better today. Not sure I'm ready to jump up and down... but hopefully we can swing something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 This might be a -NAO but the ridge is definitely south and east for my liking...and also seems to be very transient. It's hard to envision that piece sliding northwest towards Greenland or the Davis Straight with that upper air setup over Central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yeah good post John. Even if we do flip a -NAO on paper it looks transient and not exactly in a winning position for us. I do like that at least temporarily we're establishing some nice + height anomalies over the Pac NW and Alaska. That's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 This might be a -NAO but the ridge is definitely south and east for my liking...and also seems to be very transient. It's hard to envision that piece sliding northwest towards Greenland or the Davis Straight with that upper air setup over Central Canada. If you loop from hour 192, its definetely pushing NW, as it approaches that day 10 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yeah good post John. Even if we do flip a -NAO on paper it looks transient and not exactly in a winning position for us. I do like that at least temporarily we're establishing some nice + height anomalies over the Pac NW and Alaska. That's something. It's progress, the way I look at it. A few weeks ago we were staring down a monstrous vortex over AK which we seem to have ditched--but everything is disjointed now to the point where we can't get cooperation from any of the key areas. The NAO would be negative there, but as you said it would be one of those lovely situations where it registers negative but often doesn't do much to really help us. But I would definitely take that upper air chart over some of the total trash we've been looking at for the past week in the long term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 It's progress, the way I look at it. A few weeks ago we were staring down a monstrous vortex over AK which we seem to have ditched--but everything is disjointed now to the point where we can't get cooperation from any of the key areas. The NAO would be negative there, but as you said it would be one of those lovely situations where it registers negative but often doesn't do much to really help us. But I would definitely take that upper air chart over some of the total trash we've been looking at for the past week in the long term It appears to me that the bombing 50/50 low is pulling the persistent western atlantic ridge up and over temporarily, but that is by no means a west based block and as you say, it will likely get pushed east. Also, nothing else comes close to showing this, so add a large grain of salt to whatever the euro is drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 i didn't look that close but looked to me like rain ending as rain. maybe some flurries/snow showers in the higher terrain or of W MA / VT ? Although not heavy, there's actually a decent sized area of light precip on the "cold side" of the storm as some serious cold air gets involved. But the surface low tracks over New Hampshire, so i'm not sure I would buy into any frozen precip if it were to take that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 some of this stuff probably has to be put in perspective - that is, where we currently are vs. where we are going. where we are is in the midst of a horrendously warm, ugly pattern featuring multiple days of +10 to +20 departures with flowers blooming, grass growing, bugs hatching, kevin doing naked morning marathons, skiMRG pretending he has snow on the ground etc etc. where we are headed is to something more seasonable for the calendar - nothing that currently screams blockbuster stretch of winter weather en route...but a period that at least affords the opportunity to envision frozen precipitation - something impossible to do right now. it's all relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Although not heavy, there's actually a decent sized area of light precip on the "cold side" of the storm as some serious cold air gets involved. But the surface low tracks over New Hampshire, so i'm not sure I would buy into any frozen precip if it were to take that track. yeah like i said, i didn't look to close...the quick glance i made appeared as though most of the precip was done by the time a good chunk of SNE was cold enough...but i only looked at the 6 hrly...maybe the 3hr intervals suggest something more meaningful. and yeah - i'd agree with that re: track. that's not a good way to get much more than flurries as far east the ORH hills or something. maybe some good upslope for powderfreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Although not heavy, there's actually a decent sized area of light precip on the "cold side" of the storm as some serious cold air gets involved. But the surface low tracks over New Hampshire, so i'm not sure I would buy into any frozen precip if it were to take that track. Not the track we would want to see but this is going to change quite a few more times between now and then it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Noyes may be a weenie. He's certainly more BTW for a winterlike pattern then I am, but then again...he has to cover all of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Transient is the new uber which came before epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Transient is the new uber which came before epic. La epic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Interesting that the Euro D8-10 mean brouht the +PNA back to the NE Pac ....the fact that it yawed en masse in and out of existence with that giant pattern implicating feature is nothing shy of a wonderment! Pretty strong arugment of massive toxic data ingest on last night's runs to have mutilated the continuity of that many ensemblem memebers. wtf - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 The euro ensembles do try to get an east based -NAO going albeit transient. Towards the end of the run, the pattern doesn't look as favorable as heights lower all across the western parts of NAMR, but that is right at the end of the run so hopefully subject to change. Actually if anything...probably gradient like. Overall not a bad run. Hopefully there may be a chance or two in the d10-d15 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yeah good post John. Even if we do flip a -NAO on paper it looks transient and not exactly in a winning position for us. I do like that at least temporarily we're establishing some nice + height anomalies over the Pac NW and Alaska. That's something. Those ewall Euro anomaly maps are backwards. The cool shadings should be for the negative departures and the warm shadings for the positive departures. I'm not assuming it fooled you...just an fyi to anyone viewing those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The euro ensembles do try to get an east based -NAO going albeit transient. Towards the end of the run, the pattern doesn't look as favorable as heights lower all across the western parts of NAMR, but that is right at the end of the run so hopefully subject to change. Actually if anything...probably gradient like. Overall not a bad run. Hopefully there may be a chance or two in the d10-d15 period. There did appear to be at least 1 in that time frame, Just hoping to be able to hang on to the seasonable cold or slightly below.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 There did appear to be at least 1 in that time frame, Just hoping to be able to hang on to the seasonable cold or slightly below.. There were a couple of times where the ens mean had a surface ridge sticking north into New England and Quebec, ahead of a trough approaching. Probably an indication of some sort of overrunning deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Those ewall Euro anomaly maps are backwards. The cool shadings should be for the negative departures and the warm shadings for the positive departures. I'm not assuming it fooled you...just an fyi to anyone viewing those maps. they are representative of a 24 hr change too IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Noyes may be a weenie. He's certainly more BTW for a winterlike pattern then I am, but then again...he has to cover all of New England. Noyes is the real deal by far the most accurate in new england. Just about every storm he had forecasted has come out to what he says! Great Met! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 There were a couple of times where the ens mean had a surface ridge sticking north into New England and Quebec, ahead of a trough approaching. Probably an indication of some sort of overrunning deal. Yes, I remember you pointing that out a day or 2 ago, It would be about a week after the storm on the 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Man the winter Jet cranks next week, incoming. Good times ahead good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 There were a couple of times where the ens mean had a surface ridge sticking north into New England and Quebec, ahead of a trough approaching. Probably an indication of some sort of overrunning deal. Jerry's 94 analogy looking better. Hey at least we can look for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Noyes is the real deal by far the most accurate in new england. Just about every storm he had forecasted has come out to what he says! Great Met! I think there are people on this board that could challenge your statement, but I won't get into a debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 they are representative of a 24 hr change too IIRC. Yeah, my bad. I knew that, but it slipped my mind at the time of the posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Jerry's 94 analogy looking better. Hey at least we can look for something You better use all your -NAO weenie power, because just a little more ridging into the Davis Straits would be awesome. However, it may be more of a transient feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Noyes is the real deal by far the most accurate in new england. Just about every storm he had forecasted has come out to what he says! Great Met! Is this Snownh father? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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