Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I don't think we will get the same look for the storm on the 6th as the 0z Euro had at 12z here, Front is already further east thru maine 540 dm is already on the coast at 144 as it still being over the mtns at 156 on the 0z Sounds like it's setting up for a SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Sounds like it's setting up for a SWFE It has that look, Need to see a couple more panels but the low looks like it wants to develop further west, Yup it cuts inland, Glad we are still out there, It phases earlier this run and develops the low about 50 miles inland and thru maine, Would be backside snows as it moves off to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 It has that look, Need to see a couple more panels but the low looks like it wants to develop further west, Yup it cuts inland, Glad we are still out there, It phases earlier this run and develops the low about 50 miles inland and thru maine So is it mainly a rain event for all of NE? ps- do you get your euro maps through sv? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 So is it mainly a rain event for all of NE? ps- do you get your euro maps through sv? Yes SV, Its rain on the front end, Low develops over eastern NY and moves NE thru downeast maine but as the low blows up and moves NE it crashes heights to the coast and there is backside snow down into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 It has that look, Need to see a couple more panels but the low looks like it wants to develop further west, Yup it cuts inland, Glad we are still out there, It phases earlier this run and develops the low about 50 miles inland and thru maine, Would be backside snows as it moves off to the NE I'm just happy it HAS the low, however, the pattern is not condusive on wishing upon a south trend if runs keep coming in as rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm just happy it HAS the low, however, the pattern is not condusive on wishing upon a south trend if runs keep coming in as rain... It has it, Just a matter of where it phases, Our bowling ball coming down the backside out of canada on this run was faster and further west this run then at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yes SV, Its rain on the front end, Low develops over eastern NY and moves NE thru downeast maine but as the low blows up and moves NE it crashes heights to the coast and there is backside snow down into SNE At least it still has the low. Sorry OT but do you recommend it for the $30/month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The Euro does get nice and cold next week. Transient though with a substantial + departure to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 At least it still has the low. Sorry OT but do you recommend it for the $30/month? It has its perks, You get the model runs a little sooner, I am use to there maps now so its easier for myself, If i was on a budget probably not, I only subscribe to it this time of year though from Sept-Mar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The Euro does get nice and cold next week. Transient though with a substantial + departure to follow. Looks it at the end of the run along with a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm not really sure what the excitement is about. It appears we're heading toward a normal pattern with 1 or 2 transient cold shots. In general the pattern doesn't look terribly great still with no high latitude blocking and a +PNA ridge that doesn't seem to want to stick around very long. In addition it appears that the MJO wave may be running in to some trouble. Euro and most dynamical model forecasts now show the MJO wave sputtering a bit as it rolls into the Pacific. I'm worried that without some type of tropical forcing we're going to have a tough time dislodging the monster +AO stratospheric vortex and may even wind up popping the EPO back positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm not really sure what the excitement is about. It appears we're heading toward a normal pattern with 1 or 2 transient cold shots. In general the pattern doesn't look terribly great still with no high latitude blocking and a +PNA ridge that doesn't seem to want to stick around very long. In addition it appears that the MJO wave may be running in to some trouble. Euro and most dynamical model forecasts now show the MJO wave sputtering a bit as it rolls into the Pacific. I'm worried that without some type of tropical forcing we're going to have a tough time dislodging the monster +AO stratospheric vortex and may even wind up popping the EPO back positive. It's cloudy and still almost 70 in SE MA at 1pm PLYMOUTH CLOUDY 69 49 48 SE9 At this point temps under 50 will feel like polar air. I think that frontal system next week has potential, to me the excitement is purely that mosquito growth should be muted after this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 nice arctic air mass plowing down into the U.S. on the end of the euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm not really sure what the excitement is about. It appears we're heading toward a normal pattern with 1 or 2 transient cold shots. In general the pattern doesn't look terribly great still with no high latitude blocking and a +PNA ridge that doesn't seem to want to stick around very long. In addition it appears that the MJO wave may be running in to some trouble. Euro and most dynamical model forecasts now show the MJO wave sputtering a bit as it rolls into the Pacific. I'm worried that without some type of tropical forcing we're going to have a tough time dislodging the monster +AO stratospheric vortex and may even wind up popping the EPO back positive. We're gonna ride Noyes back on this. We think he's got a good read on the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm not really sure what the excitement is about. It appears we're heading toward a normal pattern with 1 or 2 transient cold shots. In general the pattern doesn't look terribly great still with no high latitude blocking and a +PNA ridge that doesn't seem to want to stick around very long. In addition it appears that the MJO wave may be running in to some trouble. Euro and most dynamical model forecasts now show the MJO wave sputtering a bit as it rolls into the Pacific. I'm worried that without some type of tropical forcing we're going to have a tough time dislodging the monster +AO stratospheric vortex and may even wind up popping the EPO back positive. interesting pop to the NEG NAO in this depiction, rolling this forward would be promising, of course verbatim. This could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm not really sure what the excitement is about. It appears we're heading toward a normal pattern with 1 or 2 transient cold shots. In general the pattern doesn't look terribly great still with no high latitude blocking and a +PNA ridge that doesn't seem to want to stick around very long. In addition it appears that the MJO wave may be running in to some trouble. Euro and most dynamical model forecasts now show the MJO wave sputtering a bit as it rolls into the Pacific. I'm worried that without some type of tropical forcing we're going to have a tough time dislodging the monster +AO stratospheric vortex and may even wind up popping the EPO back positive. OP is showing a negitive NAO at day 10..and another shot of cold..I mean why would you mention that?..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 interesting pop to the NEG NAO in this depiction, rolling this forward would be promising, of course verbatim. This could be interesting Could you make that a little smaller? Euro looks good. Good agreement on a bigger storm passing by on the front. Not there yet and it it's going to take a 300+ mile shift SSE but...beats 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Could you make that a little smaller? Euro looks good. Good agreement on a bigger storm passing by on the front. Not there yet and it it's going to take a 300+ mile shift SSE but...beats 70. Cross polar. Go to the web site and look for yourself, just threw it up there as reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Pretty go cold dump into the midwest at the end, We are getting to where we want to be slowly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 euro is cold next wednesday...would be the first solidly below normal day in a long time. highs in the 20s for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 interesting pop to the NEG NAO in this depiction, rolling this forward would be promising, of course verbatim. This could be interesting Can see it fine, I like the purple, That usually ends up south and east over time aas it may modify before it gets here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Pretty go cold dump into the midwest at the end, We are getting to where we want to be slowly.. Step by step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 OP is showing a negitive NAO at day 10..and another shot of cold..I mean why would you mention that?..lol Play nice up there. Ryan is looking at all angles, there is nothing set in stone, this whole pattern could crap out easily. We want to be on the North side of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Step by step. One foot in front of the other my friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 euro is cold next wednesday...would be the first solidly below normal day in a long time. highs in the 20s for most of SNE. Any snow OTG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 OP is showing a negitive NAO at day 10..and another shot of cold..I mean why would you mention that?..lol To be honest I didn't even know it did. I rarely look at op runs past day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 OP is showing a negitive NAO at day 10..and another shot of cold..I mean why would you mention that?..lol it's said about 1000 times a day on this forum, but again, the op runs after day 5/6 are to be taken very lightly. if you fired up the euro again right now, initialized everything again and ran it...it would almost assuredly be different. not to say it's never right or you can't take things away from it...but it's borderline entertainment beyond about 5 days. the verification scores drop substantially. so for ryan to not mention going on at at day 10 does make a degree of sense. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Any snow OTG? per the euro on that day? no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Can see it fine, I like the purple, That usually ends up south and east over time aas it may modify before it gets here.. Looks like a 94 maps, ice storm for someone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Now that Keith LI drew my attention to the Euro... talk about a weenie run. The ensembles have shown nothing like that by day 10... and even still we're getting a Lakes cutter out of the deal and a SWFE that's all rain for SNE. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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