Late November/Early December disco on the upcoming pattern

[CoastalWx]

the gfs ens hold a nice looking pattern in the extended.

Not bad at all. I like that ridge out to our east.

[ORH_wxman]

Even if the euro were right, I wouldn't expect them to show it. That's a long shot....I'm actually more interested in the pattern down the road. If it does occur...it's gravy.

I don't expect crap from the FROPA. It would be really lucky if we got something.

The better setup is after with a possible SWFE. The Euro cuts off the energy after the front moves through and completely disrupts the pattern behind it. I'm betting it ends up looking nothing like that.

[dryslot]

Even if the euro were right, I wouldn't expect them to show it. That's a long shot....I'm actually more interested in the pattern down the road. If it does occur...it's gravy.

Yes agree, Just want the cold air to remain in place over the long term, The chances should increase

[OKpowdah]

Just a note: the spread on the GEFS has been remarkably high, even for the medium range. This is what happens when you have so much s/w interaction and the cutoff energy over the SW to deal with.

I think we're going to see one aspect of the GFS and Euro come into play here: The GFS has a tendency to eject cutoffs over the SW too fast, while the Euro tends to hold on too long. These biases are definitely showing up here.

[CoastalWx]

I don't expect crap from the FROPA. It would be really lucky if we got something.

The better setup is after with a possible SWFE. The Euro cuts off the energy after the front moves through and completely disrupts the pattern behind it. I'm betting it ends up looking nothing like that.

We've yet to see the euro suite come in, but I kind of like the look of the pattern down the road. That vortex is pinned way up in northern Canada, but it seems good enough to send disturbances down the pike into the US and possible keep our area cold enough. It's like a pinball being held in place by ridges on either side.

[earthlight]

The Euro ensemble plumes for the MJO through the long term are total trash...bringing it through Phase 4-5 and then weakening into the COD and hanging out there for several days.

[CoastalWx]

The Euro ensemble plumes for the MJO through the long term are total trash...bringing it through Phase 4-5 and then weakening into the COD and hanging out there for several days.

Nice to see the NCEP models get off the roids WRT the MJO plots.

[CoastalWx]

The Euro ensemble plumes for the MJO through the long term are total trash...bringing it through Phase 4-5 and then weakening into the COD and hanging out there for several days.

That's better than having it in the crappy phases. MJO forecasts are kind of erratic anyways, but that may help not having tropical forcing in unfavorable regions....maybe even some very weak forcing in favorable regions.

[earthlight]

Nice to see the NCEP models get off the roids WRT the MJO plots.

Yeah that was an overadjustment. Initially the NCEP models were killing this thing into the COD by Dec 5. You can see the stronger impulse now..but it's nothing like the Oct impulse. I think the NCEP models had this thing going through Phase 4-5 modeled stronger than the Oct impulse which isn't happening.

[Typhoon Tip]

Not like you to not latch onto some possible historic monster blizzard

The key is more specific timing and s/w placement, so you're right, there's no beautifully looking background pattern / pattern change to support the development of a singular wavelength. I'm going more by the chance development of one of these pieces of energy plummeting over 25 degrees of latitude southward

Meh, it's really more a reflection of, .... 'if you don't got nothing nice to say, don't say anything at all', so to speak. In other words, if a system doesn't look that promising I usually differ discussion altogether; usually there is enough noose discussion to convey the point anyway haha

[Tropopause_Fold]

That's better than having it in the crappy phases. MJO forecasts are kind of erratic anyways, but that may help not having tropical forcing in unfavorable regions....maybe even some very weak forcing in favorable regions.

yep...let some other features dominate the NH for a while.

it moved pretty firmly into 3 which corresponds nicely to what we've got going on...but if it weakens as it shifts through the latter phases and eventually dissipates, it'll be rather inconsequential to the NH pattern. which could be good if we've got other favorable features in play

[CoastalWx]

Boy even just a weak -NAO would make things awesome around here, given that pattern.

[ORH_wxman]

The Euro ensemble plumes for the MJO through the long term are total trash...bringing it through Phase 4-5 and then weakening into the COD and hanging out there for several days.

That tells me we likely stay in the status quo WRT the arctic pattern. I see no blocking this month at all with that MJO forecast...if we already had blocking...going into the COD would probably be good, but with a terrible pattern, its a bad thing as it represents a lack of forcing to change the pattern.

[OSUmetstud]

gradient pattern..

[earthlight]

That tells me we likely stay in the status quo WRT the arctic pattern. I see no blocking this month at all with that MJO forecast...if we already had blocking...going into the COD would probably be good, but with a terrible pattern, its a bad thing as it represents a lack of forcing to change the pattern.

Yeah pretty much. This is the type of atmospheric deal where you need a moderate impulse to clean house, for the lack of a better term. But if we go into phases 4-6 and then the impulse dies, as the Euro ensembles are hinting at, we are in trouble.

Interestingly the mean is beginning to take the MJO out of the COD towards the end of the run (mid dec) into phases 7-8, which makes me wonder how much that would actually benefit us coming from the COD.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah pretty much. This is the type of atmospheric deal where you need a moderate impulse to clean house, for the lack of a better term. But if we go into phases 4-6 and then the impulse dies, as the Euro ensembles are hinting at, we are in trouble.

Interestingly the mean is beginning to take the MJO out of the COD towards the end of the run (mid dec) into phases 7-8, which makes me wonder how much that would actually benefit us coming from the COD.

GEFS?

The Euro doesn't seem to do that.

[Tropopause_Fold]

That tells me we likely stay in the status quo WRT the arctic pattern. I see no blocking this month at all with that MJO forecast...if we already had blocking...going into the COD would probably be good, but with a terrible pattern, its a bad thing as it represents a lack of forcing to change the pattern.

Yeah pretty much. This is the type of atmospheric deal where you need a moderate impulse to clean house, for the lack of a better term. But if we go into phases 4-6 and then the impulse dies, as the Euro ensembles are hinting at, we are in trouble.

Interestingly the mean is beginning to take the MJO out of the COD towards the end of the run (mid dec) into phases 7-8, which makes me wonder how much that would actually benefit us coming from the COD.

what kind of strength do you consider reasonable for shaking things up vs. not really playing a big role?

[Logan11]

Op GFS says at or below normal for a solid week here..... LES snow bouts will at least mean white ground even if not a lot. So compared to this May wx....I'm pleased.

60F and OVC now.

uote name='messenger' timestamp='1322584061' post='1151278']

GFS very close to developing a major low now along the lines of the Euro. Nice.

[earthlight]

GEFS?

The Euro doesn't seem to do that.

Oops--typo. They're taking it out into phases 5/6. But you have to wonder what the impact will be like if the idea on the Euro ensembles MJO is correct. This could hypothetically end up taking until Jan to realign in a more favorable fashion especially S of NYC.

[ORH_wxman]

what kind of strength do you consider reasonable for shaking things up vs. not really playing a big role?

Usually the MJO becomes a big deal past amplitude 1...that is usually about 30% outward or so on the phase diagram. It can influence stuff weaker too, but obviously the weaker it is, the less influence it has and other factors override it easier.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Usually the MJO becomes a big deal past amplitude 1...that is usually about 30% outward or so on the phase diagram. It can influence stuff weaker too, but obviously the weaker it is, the less influence it has and other factors override it easier.

yeah...maybe i just misunderstood what you were saying earlier.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will's boss Noyes on board.

The last 2 sentences will give you chills

http://t.co/D3PWcrlY

[ORH_wxman]

yeah...maybe i just misunderstood what you were saying earlier.

Yeah thats why I said going into the COD or near it would mean the pattern is probably not changing a lot in the high arctic. Not enough forcing to shuffle up the lack of blocking. That disgustingly cold polar vortex is going to need some muscle to move it.

[MaineJayhawk]

Will's boss Noyes on board.

The last 2 sentences will give you chills

http://t.co/D3PWcrlY

I like the whole last paragraph. Prepare the bus.

[Damage In Tolland]

I like the whole last paragraph. Prepare the bus.

This had me totally naked at my desk

In other words, such a pattern favors a swath of repetitive snowfalls and mixed precipitation events, which very well be centered on the Northeast and New England.Prepare for the transition to winter. It's already underway, and will be obvious from the middle of next week onward

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not as optimistic...but the pattern does have some potential to produce what he describes...if we remain on the fun side of the gradient, then it could be good.

[MJO812]

Larry Cosgrove on facebook

Time for a reality check. I have had my fill of the premature "winter is over" calls. If you check the computer models (ALL of them), you notice three prominent ridge signatures through December 15. -EPO, -NAO and Cuban subtropical high. Teleconnections on said ridges produce what is essentially a full-latitude trough with Arctic air drainage into the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast. With an active storm track from NM and TX into either S QC or (in the longer term) VA or NC.

Sounds wintry to me....

[dryslot]

Looks like some lt snow over Northern Vt and NH and Maine on saturday on the Euro

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Will's boss Noyes on board.

The last 2 sentences will give you chills

http://t.co/D3PWcrlY

Once the models resolve this first fropa system the future will be clearer. I think it looks a lot better.

[dryslot]

I don't think we will get the same look for the storm on the 6th as the 0z Euro had at 12z here, Front is already further east thru maine 540 dm is already on the coast at 144 as it still being over the mtns at 156 on the 0z