Late November/Early December disco on the upcoming pattern

[dryslot]

Big to me only because although the Euro is likely too extreme, it's more clear now a significant threat exists around 12/5-6. As TT always says we lost it for a few days, but that was the timeframe the GFS was highlighting many days ago.

Yes, It has been modeled pretty much to be there in that timeframe, Now lets get the pieces to come together, Could end up a decent event going forward if we get development further south, Step in the right direction for sure, Certainly better then tracking + temp departures...

[OKpowdah]

The thing is we need the first trough to lead the storm triggering s/w ... this way we get a sort of transient 50/50 low before the storm... the cold air is locked in place, and the storm can't cut north

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I love it.. I hope we look back in 8 days and the normal has happened, one was too extreme one not enough.

Now let's hope the Euro keeps it this run to some extent.

The pattern wrecker is born.

[dryslot]

I love it.. I hope we look back in 8 days and the normal has happened, one was too extreme one not enough.

Now let's hope the Euro keeps it this run to some extent.

The pattern wrecker is born.

At worst, We rid ourselves of this warm airmass and temps look to be more seasonable for the most part

[Damage In Tolland]

first winter-like fropa of the season there tuesday on the gfs - would actually go warm to cold with some really strong CAA after some showers instead of warm to a little less warm like we've seen of late.

Nice HWW event with strong NW winds. One week..one week left in the period

[Clinch Leatherwood]

At worst, We rid ourselves of this warm airmass and temps look to be more seasonable for the most part

Question becomes is it a transient change though. GFS looks to head bad again late.

[dryslot]

Optimistic 12z GFS op run but lets see how the ensembles handle that system..

[OSUmetstud]

the lakes are finally going to go nuclear. Details still to be worked out, obviously

[dryslot]

Question becomes is it a transient change though. GFS looks to head bad again late.

That is out in lala land at 384, But yeah, The cold was retreating back north, More of a gradient look at the end

[ctsnowstorm628]

Question becomes is it a transient change though. GFS looks to head bad again late.

Its the op gfs late...I wouldn't focus on much past the threat next tues/wed..

[WxUSAF]

Question becomes is it a transient change though. GFS looks to head bad again late.

It breaks the PNA ridge down on the last day or two of the run, but otherwise is pretty decent. Even then, it keeps your area (and mine) seasonably chilly if not a bit below normal. The big N-Atlantic ridge this run really keeps the SE ridge beat down. It's all fantasy land, but the set up at 276-312hr is very nice for a Miller A coastal. GFS pops one, just well offshore.

[CoastalWx]

Sam I thought you were thinking something big around the 8th to 10th?

I was hoping the shot in the dark yesterday comment of something along that front would work out.

[WxUSAF]

the lakes are finally going to go nuclear. Details still to be worked out, obviously

Indeed. December 6-8th could be epic for some spots. Please post pics so we can live vicariously through you!

[CoastalWx]

It breaks the PNA ridge down on the last day or two of the run, but otherwise is pretty decent. Even then, it keeps your area (and mine) seasonably chilly if not a bit below normal. The big N-Atlantic ridge this run really keeps the SE ridge beat down. It's all fantasy land, but the set up at 276-312hr is very nice for a Miller A coastal. GFS pops one, just well offshore.

Yeah there has been signals of that for a while...I commented earlier on that. That big GOA ridge would possibly allow it, but it also could be a OV runner...IE SWFE.

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS very close to developing a major low now along the lines of the Euro. Nice.

I may be off on this ... lord knows I've blown some in the past. But that 00z Euro is really really tough for this Met to believe. I'm sure the other adroit posters have discussed it so no sense in rehashing the obvious. Forgetting the details though the background canvas really doesn't support that.

But ...I'll tell you what, anomalies relative to an anomaly can happen. Though rarer, the snow bowl game between the Pats and Oakland back in the day was a snow event during a positive polar phase and neutral PNA, yet a sneaky cold pool set in for whatever local-scaled stochastic reason, and you got an event out of an unforable otherwise, playing field.

[WxUSAF]

Yeah there has been signals of that for a while...I commented earlier on that. That big GOA ridge would possibly allow it, but it also could be a OV runner...IE SWFE.

Yeah, track obviously TBD. GFS keeps the s/w positively tilted east of the MS River, which is why the coastal pops so far offshore on this run. That setup, as depicted, is pretty nice for a Miller A however. An OV runner would probably be a mix-to-rain event for the Mid-Atlantic in that sort of depiction since the cold air is in place ahead of the storm and some cold air damming could set up.

[OSUmetstud]

I'm selfish...but I'm hoping for no coastal...

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I may be off on this ... lord knows I've blown some in the past. But that 00z Euro is really really tough for this Met to believe. I'm sure the other adroit posters have discussed it so no sense in rehashing the obvious. Forgetting the details though the background canvas really doesn't support that.

But ...I'll tell you what, anomalies relative to an anomaly can happen. Though rarer, the snow bowl game between the Pats and Oakland back in the day was a snow event during a positive polar phase and neutral PNA, yet a sneaky cold pool set in for whatever local-scaled stochastic reason, and you got an event out of an unforable otherwise, playing field.

John I totally agree. I literally looked at two surface panels on the Euro and that was it because it's in la la land. A compromise may well be the case here unless they are both out to lunch. But...and I might be wrong on the event...but didn't the euro have a cutoff that went from rain to snow here for this existing cutoff and we all dismissed it initially? It was right on the feature just way off on the placement. I'm hoping that's the case here too, and we'll at least see a big storm develop to mix things up.

The GFS has two threat windows and then it flattens again. That's fine with me, won't be a snowpack year in the CP but we can still have our fun in bouts.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS for now aren't feeling the euro either.

[OKpowdah]

Sam I thought you were thinking something big around the 8th to 10th?

I was hoping the shot in the dark yesterday comment of something along that front would work out.

All depends on which s/w takes over. Last night's euro keys in on an earlier one. Again, a lot of energy streaming south over the top of that ridge. Something is gonna happen. I bet if it wasn't past the GFS truncation, then the next s/w diving south would blow up into something good around the 9th.

In the case of the GFS, we could end up with a wave along the front for an initial light to moderate overrunning event then something bigger a few days later. With the Euro, it looks more like a katafront followed by the beast on the 7th

[dryslot]

I'm selfish...but I'm hoping for no coastal...

lol

[OKpowdah]

I may be off on this ... lord knows I've blown some in the past. But that 00z Euro is really really tough for this Met to believe. I'm sure the other adroit posters have discussed it so no sense in rehashing the obvious. Forgetting the details though the background canvas really doesn't support that.

But ...I'll tell you what, anomalies relative to an anomaly can happen. Though rarer, the snow bowl game between the Pats and Oakland back in the day was a snow event during a positive polar phase and neutral PNA, yet a sneaky cold pool set in for whatever local-scaled stochastic reason, and you got an event out of an unforable otherwise, playing field.

Not like you to not latch onto some possible historic monster blizzard

The key is more specific timing and s/w placement, so you're right, there's no beautifully looking background pattern / pattern change to support the development of a singular wavelength. I'm going more by the chance development of one of these pieces of energy plummeting over 25 degrees of latitude southward

[CoastalWx]

All depends on which s/w takes over. Last night's euro keys in on an earlier one. Again, a lot of energy streaming south over the top of that ridge. Something is gonna happen. I bet if it wasn't past the GFS truncation, then the next s/w diving south would blow up into something good around the 9th.

In the case of the GFS, we could end up with a wave along the front for an initial light to moderate overrunning event then something bigger a few days later. With the Euro, it looks more like a katafront followed by the beast on the 7th

I do agree we'll have a chance or two during that time. I'm also liking the NATL ridge which may help with any coastal development, but I would not say that coastal development is imminent.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GEFS for now aren't feeling the euro either.

It snows though and there's considerably more moisture on either side of the front. Positive sign but obviously not the Euro.

I'm betting a few members are picking up on the low on the front idea based on the hangback here;

[CoastalWx]

That fropa and cutter next week, may be the catalyst for the NATL ridge. It's almost a semi -NAO on the GEFS now.

[dryslot]

GEFS for now aren't feeling the euro either.

No, Its a muted fropa

[CoastalWx]

No, Its a muted fropa

Even if the euro were right, I wouldn't expect them to show it. That's a long shot....I'm actually more interested in the pattern down the road. If it does occur...it's gravy.

[Tropopause_Fold]

It snows though and there's considerably more moisture on either side of the front. Positive sign but obviously not the Euro.

I'm betting a few members are picking up on the low on the front idea based on the hangback here;

possible...it may also be a timing issue with the various members relative to the fropa. it gets tough with the ensembles with that sort of stuff once you get out past several days.

the op euro almost has a bowling ball coming down the pike...it goes nuts with that feature.

[Tropopause_Fold]

the gfs ens hold a nice looking pattern in the extended.

[OSUmetstud]

It snows though and there's considerably more moisture on either side of the front. Positive sign but obviously not the Euro.

I'm betting a few members are picking up on the low on the front idea based on the hangback here;

There's no members with a coastal...they have different positions with the front with a spread in precip along it. There's one member with a SW flow event look and another with a very amped up solution which is warm sectoring SNE at that time frame.