dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 That Dec 5th/6th date is a magical time for snowstorms. It seems to love to snow on that date. Some big storms over the yrs in that time frame. Mentioned it a few weeks back and said Dec 5th, We have had many storms on or around that date.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Its pretty far out there and it was the 1st model to show it, Certainly would not run with it at this point but it goes to show the volatile nature of this upcoming pattern.. Volatile. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I defintely think there will be chances down here, and esp up your way. The pattern isn't one that is conducive to Lake Cutters which is good. Now for me, I still can get screwed this time of year...but I'm gonna keep my head up and hope for some chances here. You're going to be in the game Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Volatile. Nice. Its gon snow......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Euro ensembles defintely do not agree with the fantasy storm that the op has, at least at the current moment. The euro ensembles changed around a bit. Later in the period after d10 we begin to see the NATL ridge develop for a brief time. The ridge over the GOA retrogrades again and heights lower a bit in the GOA. However these lower heights try to pump up just a little PNA ridging in the west..especially NW Canada. These act to help keep cooler air in the northeast US. It's a good thing, because the se ridge I think would be pretty darn potent. I don't know how stable this pattern would be, or if it is just a blip, but not a bad run. That is a good thing. We can do ok with that setup...its stinks for the M.A. but for us we can get a lot of SWFEs with the N ATL ridge that is still a +NAO...Dec 1975 and Dec 1956 are the classic cases in La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 That is a good thing. We can do ok with that setup...its stinks for the M.A. but for us we can get a lot of SWFEs with the N ATL ridge that is still a +NAO...Dec 1975 and Dec 1956 are the classic cases in La Nina. What are some big SWFEs we've had in history? I may be wrong, but with SWFEs, its never going to produce prolific snows correct? Usually like 12-15" type deals for the jackpot? I know that 12/2007 storm was a good one but only like a foot of snow with that one... Would we need a weaker original low in NY then try and get a major low to form S of LI to get that MECS type storm? .......... In response to will since I'm 5/day... I was talking about jackpot areas... mostly everyone sees like 4-8" in a SWFE right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 What are some big SWFEs we've had in history? I may be wrong, but with SWFEs, its never going to produce prolific snows correct? Usually like 12-15" type deals for the jackpot? I know that 12/2007 storm was a good one but only like a foot of snow with that one... Would we need a weaker original low in NY then try and get a major low to form S of LI to get that MECS type storm? What the hell do you want? 12-15" is a massive snowstorm. Most SWFES are like 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 What the hell do you want? 12-15" is a massive snowstorm. Most SWFES are like 6-10" I would be ecstatic with half that amount in the next 2 weeks... Interesting about the cold temps aloft causing issues (Scooter, Ampsu, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Mentioned it a few weeks back and said Dec 5th, We have had many storms on or around that date.. Yes very true, 5th is my birthday and it seems like there was usually a good storm on or around then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 That is a good thing. We can do ok with that setup...its stinks for the M.A. but for us we can get a lot of SWFEs with the N ATL ridge that is still a +NAO...Dec 1975 and Dec 1956 are the classic cases in La Nina. That really bumped up on this run. I was surprised....in a good way. I hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 I would be ecstatic with half that amount in the next 2 weeks... Interesting about the cold temps aloft causing issues (Scooter, Ampsu, etc) I honestly am weak in that dept. I'm just noting how cold it is. I'm not so sure what it would mean going forward WRT the Arctic Oscillation. It might help continue it for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 What the hell do you want? 12-15" is a massive snowstorm. Most SWFES are like 6-10" the second half of the 00z ec ens run (day 6-10 - don't have beyond) look promising. combine the ULL in the sw ejecting some energy out into the plains with a pretty good NW flow across canada into the GL/NE with the area of rising heights in the central north atlantic, and that's as good a look as we've seen thus far. SE ridge is there but not gangbusters. that should reduce the risk of something coming out of OK and tracking over LEK's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 the second half of the 00z ec ens run (day 6-10 - don't have beyond) look promising. combine the ULL in the sw ejecting some energy out into the plains with a pretty good NW flow across canada into the GL/NE with the area of rising heights in the central north atlantic, and that's as good a look as we've seen thus far. SE ridge is there but not gangbusters. that should reduce the risk of something coming out of OK and tracking over LEK's house. Yeah, I think part of that may be tied to the NATL ridge. Hopefully it continues on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 What the hell do you want? 12-15" is a massive snowstorm. Most SWFES are like 6-10" Not sure if the 6-10 would be applicable to the Ct. River valley or most places south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 07 and 08 continue to show up in the daily analogs. in fact the ggem ens package #2 analog centered on 12/10/11 is 12/10/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Haven't looked at anything... Mainly because I went and looked at that freebie PSU E-Wall, D8-10 mean and the Euro flattened the +PNA with the blithe of a serial killer, ...all in a single run. That many ensemble members, unilaterally abandoned the idea. That's kinda fascinating the mean came in that way... Anyway, I tried to warn of this yesterday - I hope it is wrong. I haven't time to analyze anything much deeper. I will say I'm really leery about this whole thing and could see it almost working out otherwise. That MJO hauling ass through Phase 3 and 4 like that while there is no antecedent or even arriving downward turn in the AO/EPO/NAO for compensating leaves the entire arena open to the MJO as the primary motivator on the pattern. It is possible the Euro mean is simple sniffing that out sooner than the GFS cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Like I said... I'm only hoping for some anafrontal snow...could be from a series of weak waves along the front. Set low expectations I'd say and hope for the best. Its pretty far out there and it was the 1st model to show it, Certainly would not run with it at this point but it goes to show the volatile nature of this upcoming pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Not sure if the 6-10 would be applicable to the Ct. River valley. actually...it would fit perfect. PALMER 11.0 700 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO LONGMEADOW 10.7 825 PM 12/13 SPOTTER EAST LONGMEADOW 10.5 830 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO EAST LONGMEADOW 10.5 900 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO SOUTHWICK 10.2 808 PM 12/13 SPOTTER MONTGOMERY 10.0 830 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO WALES 10.0 900 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO WEST SPRINGFIELD 10.0 750 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO WESTFIELD 10.0 830 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO WILBRAHAM 10.0 830 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO BLANDFORD 9.5 830 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO CHICOPEE 9.5 830 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO CHESTER 9.0 830 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO AGAWAM 8.5 900 PM 12/13 HAM RADIO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 They're very spoiled in SNE and CNE...... People may be readying the toasters if they have to endure a mediocre winter with a bunch of 2-4 and 4-8 inch events. LOL What the hell do you want? 12-15" is a massive snowstorm. Most SWFES are like 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 GFS is coming around to the Euro type idea for early next week...IMO..through 102. To what extent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Are you serious? My "LA LA LA LOCK IT UP" post was deleted? That was legit contribution to the discussion. Anyway, just an fyi, the 00z euro follows the progression that I described in detail a few pages back for an earlier Euro run. The storm just occurs with s/w #5 instead of s/w #6 ... one of these disturbances diving down the huge ridge from the arctic will produce something big. Can't promise snow for the Northeast, but someone in the eastern half of the nation is going to get a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 What with the SE ridge (perhaps NATL ridge), the coming ridge E of Hawaii, and an abnormally strong vortex, I wouldn't say this is a volatile pattern.The idea of one or more SWFEs is intriguing right now. Hopefully we start seeing impressively worded WSWs coming out of the mountains in the SW next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 GFS very close to developing a major low now along the lines of the Euro. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 GFS very close to developing a major low now along the lines of the Euro. Nice. Lotta shortwave energy in the mix. We need each piece to be more distinct ... a la the Euro We need to cutoff part of the energy over the SW, and have a more distinct trough pass through the Northeast ... followed by the potent beast barreling down the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 GFS very close to developing a major low now along the lines of the Euro. Nice. Yes, Looks like a rain to snow scenario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Lotta shortwave energy in the mix. We need each piece to be more distinct ... a la the Euro We need to cutoff part of the energy over the SW, and have a more distinct trough pass through the Northeast ... followed by the potent beast barreling down the ridge. Very encouraging particularly to the NW. It's not there yet, but it's much closer. Yes, Looks like a rain to snow scenario.. Yep for now, and should hopefully get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Lotta shortwave energy in the mix. We need each piece to be more distinct ... a la the Euro We need to cutoff part of the energy over the SW, and have a more distinct trough pass through the Northeast ... followed by the potent beast barreling down the ridge. Yeah, It has the right idea but we need that vort to drop further SE to sharpen the trough for a further south development at the surface..Step in the right direction though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 first winter-like fropa of the season there tuesday on the gfs - would actually go warm to cold with some really strong CAA after some showers instead of warm to a little less warm like we've seen of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yeah, It has the right idea but we need that vort to drop further SE to sharpen the trough and a further south development at the surface.. Big to me only because although the Euro is likely too extreme, it's more clear now a significant threat exists around 12/5-6. As TT always says we lost it for a few days, but that was the timeframe the GFS was highlighting many days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Very encouraging particularly to the NW. It's not there yet, but it's much closer. Yeah, we have all the players, and there are just some adjustments that need to be made ... certainly have the time for changes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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