Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 if it were under 5 days out it would be interesting...but it was days 7-10. i find it hard to believe a storm is going to stall to my east and spin for 3 days like that while pummeling eastern MA day after day. Well yeah that part is insane..but I just meant the general idea of a coastal storm with snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well yeah that part is insane..but I just meant the general idea of a coastal storm with snow potential. And another torch would follow it, +EPO comes back strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Wow, not much talk in here this morning. I guess everything has already been said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Wow, not much talk in here this morning. I guess everything has already been said. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The NAO approaching neutral on the OP Euro argues for a big event next week, I thought typically you can get a good storm when you see flips like this. It has some support from the Ens as it drops significantly too. FYI...I travel to Boston frequently so I will troll this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The upcoming pattern was discussed to death yesterday, The 0z euro was interesting for around the 6th AMT and has been talked about a storm in that time frame for a few days, Going to need to see if that storm stays on the models going forward but as most have said, This pattern looks to be gradient so chances will be there even if the real cold air is not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Euro ensembles defintely do not agree with the fantasy storm that the op has, at least at the current moment. The euro ensembles changed around a bit. Later in the period after d10 we begin to see the NATL ridge develop for a brief time. The ridge over the GOA retrogrades again and heights lower a bit in the GOA. However these lower heights try to pump up just a little PNA ridging in the west..especially NW Canada. These act to help keep cooler air in the northeast US. It's a good thing, because the se ridge I think would be pretty darn potent. I don't know how stable this pattern would be, or if it is just a blip, but not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Euro ensembles defintely do not agree with the fantasy storm that the op has, at least at the current moment. The euro ensembles changed around a bit. Later in the period after d10 we begin to see the NATL ridge develop for a brief time. The ridge over the GOA retrogrades again and heights lower a bit in the GOA. However these lower heights try to pump up just a little PNA ridging in the west..especially NW Canada. These act to help keep cooler air in the northeast US. It's a good thing, because the se ridge I think would be pretty darn potent. I don't know how stable this pattern would be, or if it is just a blip, but not a bad run. At least its the euro that had the storm and not the gfs... Can you explain what the euro does with that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 At least its the euro that had the storm and not the gfs... Can you explain what the euro does with that storm? A piece of energy at 500mb cuts off south of SNE an therefore low pressure stalls in that area too. I wouldn't expect it right now, but we should see what later runs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Wow, not much talk in here this morning. I guess everything has already been said. Lots to discuss with the pending snow event next week at this time. Discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Euro ensembles defintely do not agree with the fantasy storm that the op has, at least at the current moment. The euro ensembles changed around a bit. Later in the period after d10 we begin to see the NATL ridge develop for a brief time. The ridge over the GOA retrogrades again and heights lower a bit in the GOA. However these lower heights try to pump up just a little PNA ridging in the west..especially NW Canada. These act to help keep cooler air in the northeast US. It's a good thing, because the se ridge I think would be pretty darn potent. I don't know how stable this pattern would be, or if it is just a blip, but not a bad run. Thanks Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 It's kind of interesting that the GEFS have solutions that depict a stalled front over the southeast and low pressure developing in the Gulf and moving northeast. Some of them are also cutter solutions, but it shows that if the GOA ridge is strong enough, we could see colder solutions in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Thanks Scooter. For now it doesn't, but I wouldn't say the chance is 0%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 For now it doesn't, but I wouldn't say the chance is 0%. Of course not, just keeping things in perspective thats all, thanks for all you do here, and that goes for all the METS, you dont have to but it certainly makes this place special, and educational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm impressed that almost the entire N-Hemi temps between 50mb and 10mb are colder than normal. We got to warm those up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Of course not, just keeping things in perspective thats all, thanks for all you do here, and that goes for all the METS, you dont have to but it certainly makes this place special, and educational. Thanks for all that you do as well. Without you there is no us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'm impressed that almost the entire N-Hemi temps between 50mb and 10mb are colder than normal. We got to warm those up. What are the consequences of a colder than normal 50mb and 10mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I don't know about a big storm, but I would still think that some anafrontal snow is within the realm as that front slowly pushes through early next week. At this point I'd be psyched for a 2 or 3 inch snowfall in that fashion and then a decent cold shot and some peripheral LES effects. Too bad that situation doesn't set up until after the Bills game this weekend. A piece of energy at 500mb cuts off south of SNE an therefore low pressure stalls in that area too. I wouldn't expect it right now, but we should see what later runs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 What are the consequences of a colder than normal 50mb and 10mb? Well not sure what it means across the entire northern hemi, but a cold stratosphere over polar regions may mean the vortex in the upper levels is strong and the AO may be positive for a while. You can still have transient -NAOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well not sure what it means across the entire northern hemi, but a cold stratosphere over polar regions may mean the vortex in the upper levels is strong and the AO may be positive for a while. You can still have transient -NAOs. Yep. Cold stratospheric polar temperatures = predominantly +AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well not sure what it means across the entire northern hemi, but a cold stratosphere over polar regions may mean the vortex in the upper levels is strong and the AO may be positive for a while. You can still have transient -NAOs. Cool. Thanks. I vaguely remember Tip mentioning this phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yep. Cold stratospheric polar temperatures = predominantly +AO It's dam cold..lol. The core of the coldest 50mb temps seems to want to enter the US near d10 on the euro, but the gfs op seems to bring them back into Siberia and tries to warm temps just a bit near Greenland at the end it its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I don't know about a big storm, but I would still think that some anafrontal snow is within the realm as that front slowly pushes through early next week. At this point I'd be psyched for a 2 or 3 inch snowfall in that fashion and then a decent cold shot and some peripheral LES effects. Too bad that situation doesn't set up until after the Bills game this weekend. I think that front has some potential but it will be in the timing of the impulses moving along it in relation to where the boundary sets up whether its still west of us or has moved east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 I think that front has some potential but it will be in the timing of the impulses moving along it in relation to where the boundary sets up whether its still west of us or has moved east I mentioned yesterday that we could get a wave forming along the front if we are lucky, but I certainly wouldn't count on that. It still is a low prob, but this one euro run isn't going to convince me that it will happen. Parts of ern mass have a 40 hr snow event....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Of course not, just keeping things in perspective thats all, thanks for all you do here, and that goes for all the METS, you dont have to but it certainly makes this place special, and educational. Thanks for all that you do as well. Without you there is no us Thanks to all the Mets in here, And in the NNE threads as well, You guys and girls do a great job with your explanations of the upcoming patterns plus keeping most of us weenies in check, I don't think its mentioned as often as it should for all the hard work and time that is spent here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I mentioned yesterday that we could get a wave forming along the front if we are lucky, but I certainly wouldn't count on that. It still is a low prob, but this one euro run isn't going to convince me that it will happen. Parts of ern mass have a 40 hr snow event....lol. Its pretty far out there and it was the 1st model to show it, Certainly would not run with it at this point but it goes to show the volatile nature of this upcoming pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Its pretty far out there and it was the 1st model to show it, Certainly would not run with it at this point but it goes to show the volatile nature of this upcoming pattern.. I defintely think there will be chances down here, and esp up your way. The pattern isn't one that is conducive to Lake Cutters which is good. Now for me, I still can get screwed this time of year...but I'm gonna keep my head up and hope for some chances here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 That Dec 5th/6th date is a magical time for snowstorms. It seems to love to snow on that date. Some big storms over the yrs in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I mentioned yesterday that we could get a wave forming along the front if we are lucky, but I certainly wouldn't count on that. It still is a low prob, but this one euro run isn't going to convince me that it will happen. Parts of ern mass have a 40 hr snow event....lol. Didn't someone say the analog for what we're having right now was 12/04....and that was followed by 1/05. Kidding aside we just had a major cutoff in this pattern. The EURO OP had that up here if I remember for a few runs before correcting way south. May be a signal that a larger storm is going to form but it's probably just having a hard time discerning where as of now. All models toy with something around that time that had a lot of potential. Be interesting to see where the storm inevitably ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I definitely think there will be chances down here, and esp up your way. The pattern isn't one that is conducive to Lake Cutters which is good. Now for me, I still can get screwed this time of year...but I'm gonna keep my head up and hope for some chances here. Yeah, I am not as concerned up this way as i would be if i was south, I think that has been pretty much discussed this whole fall season, There is going to be a pretty sharp gradient that sets up and the ones that are north of that line will benefit, I can find snow quite easily even if i don't have it in my door yard so i don't freak out that easily... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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