40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well you know what I mean...many times that can happen. 32 or 33F....those milder temps suck. I'll let Will explain since you asked him....it will make sense when you hear it. He may have crashed...enlighten me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 They do suck. Just when you think you escaped 32, the wind turns west and you warm to like 38F or something. That has ruined many of my minor icing events. We get a nice 1/4" glaze on the trees and then the CAA sets in and we mix down MU30s and melt it all off of the branches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Forecast/forecast.shtml good stuff there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 That storm showed how important the airmass to our north is. We had a solid high pressure north of ME (1040ish?) bringing in frigid air. I remember waking up around 7AM and seeing whiteout conditions with a temp of 15F. By 11AM, we dry slotted and spiked to 38-39F. I think I got 9-10" out of that one. If you got nothing in SE Canada, you won't see such prolific snows on the front end. that was a prolific storm setup. you wont see that everyday by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 isn't it because the NE winds are llvl cold drainage but the west winds are caused by mixing of the warmer upper level winds down to the surface. Once those upper level west winds pick up you start mixing the warmer upper levels to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 He may have crashed...enlighten me... Well you know how the atmosphere aloft torches and the lower levels are locked in with the cold.... After the coldfront passes, the air aloft is also cooling down too, but the problem is that it is still pretty darn warm for a while...sometimes several hours after fropa. As the air aloft begins to cool a bit and the surface pressure gradient begins to increase after the front passes (sometimes due to high pressure building in and the storm deepening to the east), you begin to mix down that warmer air aloft, and flush out the shallow cold air near the surface. Finally the air just above the surface begins to cool off enough and the temp at the surface will eventually fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well you know how the atmosphere aloft torches and the lower levels are locked in with the cold.... After the coldfront passes, the air aloft is also cooling down too, but the problem is that it is still pretty darn warm for a while...sometimes several hours after fropa. As the air aloft begins to cool a bit and the surface pressure gradient begins to increase after the front passes (sometimes due to high pressure building in and the storm deepening to the east), you begin to mix down that warmer air aloft, and flush out the shallow cold air near the surface. fascinating hate that. thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well you know how the atmosphere aloft torches and the lower levels are locked in with the cold.... After the coldfront passes, the air aloft is also cooling down too, but the problem is that it is still pretty darn warm for a while...sometimes several hours after fropa. As the air aloft begins to cool a bit and the surface pressure gradient begins to increase after the front passes (sometimes due to high pressure building in and the storm deepening to the east), you begin to mix down that warmer air aloft, and flush out the shallow cold air near the surface. Finally the air just above the surface begins to cool off enough and the temp at the surface will eventually fall. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 isn't it because the NE winds are llvl cold drainage but the west winds are caused by mixing of the warmer upper level winds down to the surface. Once those upper level west winds pick up you start mixing the warmer upper levels to the surface. Yes..usually you get cold air drainage at the sfc but the warm air advection keeps lowering in the atmosphere as the event progresses...first its at 700mb or 750mb, then 850mb, then 950mb...then eventually the sfc might get mixed out...sometimes it never does and it has to wait until the W winds and you see a spike from like 25F to 33F over the interior when that happens...but its usually dry air on the CAA so it doesn't do much to the snow pack...but sometimes its not and its still moist in the LLs and you can get a brief period of 38/36 type temps, though that is much more common where Ray is versus the deeper interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yes..usually you get cold air drainage at the sfc but the warm air advection keeps lowering in the atmosphere as the event progresses...first its at 700mb or 750mb, then 850mb, then 950mb...then eventually the sfc might get mixed out...sometimes it never does and it has to wait until the W winds and you see a spike from like 25F to 33F over the interior when that happens...but its usually dry air on the CAA so it doesn't do much to the snow pack...but sometimes its not and its still moist in the LLs and you can get a brief period of 38/36 type temps, though that is much more common where Ray is versus the deeper interior. It gets real close to the surface sometimes. I've seen it hover around 36F at ground level, but the low clouds a few hundred feet up a racing from west to east. It will eventually mix out, but I always found it fascinating how shallow that cold layer can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Do 12z euro ensembles retrograde the western ridge in the LR alot or just a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Do 12z euro ensembles retrograde the western ridge in the LR alot or just a little? They retrograde by a decent amount, but it would probably still be ok if the amplitude was high enough to keep more cross polar flow into Canada. The amplitude lessens a bit in the 11-15 day, but sometimes that fluctuates with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 They retrograde by a decent amount, but it would probably still be ok if the amplitude was high enough to keep more cross polar flow into Canada. The amplitude lessens a bit in the 11-15 day, but sometimes that fluctuates with each run. Does it still look like there will be some cross polar flow? And does it show some type of a PV or trough over Hudson Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 GFS bringing the cold like the Euro 12/6 into the heartland. Kind of a weak ridge off the west coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Does it still look like there will be some cross polar flow? And does it show some type of a PV or trough over Hudson Bay? The PV is north of Hudson Bay and this is some nw flow into Canada. It's not true cross polar flow, but the flow is from cold origins. The question around here, is how the ridge over the se develops and the amplitude of that will also be regulated by the amplitude of the ridge in the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 LOL, check out the 180 0z vs 192 12z. The spurious low that was in the EPAC is gone, replaced by the 1032 high. The rest of the OP GFS should give us a better look than the garbage from the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 2 cold shots ...those are are chances for now. Anything beyond is too foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 2 cold shots ...those are are chances for now. Anything beyond is too foggy. First one is almost for sure a dead ratter, second one 12/6 looks pretty nice. Post frontal accumulating snows with the hint of maybe something more substantial if the timing is right. After that pattern gets dodgy again for a bit. Will need the mauler coming into the northern plains 12/11 to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 First one is almost for sure a dead ratter, second one 12/6 looks pretty nice. Post frontal accumulating snows with the hint of maybe something more substantial if the timing is right. After that pattern gets dodgy again for a bit. Will need the mauler coming into the northern plains 12/11 to do it. The 2 cold shots are 12/6 and again around 12/10....I was not referring to anything sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 All the odels suggest gradient pattern as has been discussed ad nauseum. Te deveil is in the details. Anyone on the cold side cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The 2 cold shots are 12/6 and again around 12/10....I was not referring to anything sooner. Most significant seems to be 12/6 on the OP GFS, 12/10-11 an impulse tries to develop but there's not enough to make the cold air anything more than a glancing blow and the low misses, then we are right back to the same cycling and then there is the developing west coast trough at the end. Looks like the map Phil posted earlier but cooler in the central and northern New England areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 LOL, check out the 180 0z vs 192 12z. The spurious low that was in the EPAC is gone, replaced by the 1032 high. The rest of the OP GFS should give us a better look than the garbage from the 12z. Actually I don't think it's gone it's north of Juneau on the Alaskan coast instead of in the EPAC. This is even worse because instead of riding under the ridge like on the 12z when we had ridging pushing up into Alaska, it goes over the top of the ridge and we have super low heights in Alaska. 00z says what -EPO? Any sign of -EPO is already gone by 168 because this low rides over the ridge rather than cutting under it. OP GFS has been really persistent on getting rid of the EPO ridge, and this run is probably the most aggressive I have seen. But so far nothing else is supporting it. I think it makes sense though given the MJO.. and the ensembles have been hinting at it even if they are not as aggressive. All we get is one cold front on the 6th and then a cold dominating high pressure which moves into the SE eventually and gives us warm flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Actually I don't think it's gone it's north of Juneau on the Alaskan coast instead of in the EPAC. This is even worse because instead of riding under the ridge like on the 12z when we had ridging pushing up into Alaska, it goes over the top of the ridge and we have super low heights in the Alaska. 00z says what -EPO? OP GFS has been really persistent on getting rid of the EPO ridge, and this run is probably the most aggressive I have seen. But so far nothing else is supporting it. I know what you're saying but it's kind of funny if you flip between the two panels. Right smack where it had a little wrapped up low last run is a high. I don't think the GFS OP looks all that bad considering the range. It's exactly what we were told to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 It gets real close to the surface sometimes. I've seen it hover around 36F at ground level, but the low clouds a few hundred feet up a racing from west to east. It will eventually mix out, but I always found it fascinating how shallow that cold layer can be. Quite often the local wx bug, atop the middle school, will be several degrees milder than my 1M high Davis. Yea, Will, the destructive high dp garbage usually requires marine taint to be advected in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'd take the GEFS in a heart beat. They are pretty weak with the se ridge. They might be a little too weak with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'd take the GEFS in a heart beat. They are pretty weak with the se ridge. They might be a little too weak with that. OP GFS too given what it is. GEFS looks seasonable, there's def a few shots in there. Agree on the ridge. No torch for sure. Light at the end of the tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Am I the only one fascinated by last night's euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Am I the only one fascinated by last night's euro? Fascinated, intrigued, not taking seriously but would like to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I can't believe there's been no discussion of the massive snowstorm the Euro has for next Tuesday/Wed. Hopefully the Euro ens have some plots that agree with the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I can't believe there's been no discussion of the massive snowstorm the Euro has for next Tuesday/Wed. Hopefully the Euro ens have some plots that agree with the op if it were under 5 days out it would be interesting...but it was days 7-10. i find it hard to believe a storm is going to stall to my east and spin for 3 days like that while pummeling eastern MA day after day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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