Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Save for canes and monumental snow events. 3" in ne MS....BOING Except my original post was about how I liked ULLs overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Cold and dry is worse than any torch. Hmmmm ... i disagee ... sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Except my original post was about how I liked BBW overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Oh boy meltdown epidemic spreading like wildfire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 This pattern should produce a few chances to track I'd think between Dec 6 and Dec 15 if the ensembles hold serve. We aren't looking at an ideal pattern, but its not terrible...it could be a lot worse like the one we have now. I think uou had said something close to this for a little while Hopefully this is the final big hump for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Play nice up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Guys this is going OT..I'm guilty too, but do not turn this into a banter thread...keep the discussion at least partially related to the pattern ahead and not one liners...that makes our job easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Until 1/5... Coming back to the heart of winter. Keep hope live! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Guys this is going OT..I'm guilty too, but do not turn this into a banter thread...keep the discussion at least partially related to the pattern ahead and not one liners...that makes our job easier. Guilty as charged. Hopefully the pattern will end up half as prolific as 2007....I'd take that and run and I think most of us would. Not too much to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Will, earlier you mentioned something about events getting too amped and that being bad for SNE. Can you explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 If you like winter weather this pattern could only get worse with a comet impact somewhere in the atlantic. That's the reality. It's 58 in boston at 10pm, 56 in Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 This pattern should produce a few chances to track I'd think between Dec 6 and Dec 15 if the ensembles hold serve. We aren't looking at an ideal pattern, but its not terrible...it could be a lot worse like the one we have now. Agreed. My thoughts exactly just looking at runs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Guys this is going OT..I'm guilty too, but do not turn this into a banter thread...keep the discussion at least partially related to the pattern ahead and not one liners...that makes our job easier. Looks fantastic this week if you have to trim the blooms after the beneficial rains sprout new buds. Looking forward to mowing my lawn once again. One more week of these type of posts and maybe I have an epic meltdown ala March 10 but I will play nice up here. If I see one more wink I might meltdown too. Seriously very encouraged by your posts tonight, chances are all we ask for and you saying we have some is good enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Agreed. My thoughts exactly just looking at runs now Just look at the members to see the different varieties. They'll be threats for sure..details to be determined and this will depend on the EPO ridge and se ridge. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Agreed. My thoughts exactly just looking at runs now Yep. Appears that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Will, earlier you mentioned something about events getting too amped and that being bad for SNE. Can you explain? In a SW flow regime...you have impulses coming out of the southwest US and through the OH Valley...if they get too amped up, then the low will cut through BUF or something...if they remain weaker, then you get a low near PIT that redevelops E of NJ or near LI and crosses to our south and we get all snow. In 2007, we had both, but lucked out on the BUF cutter...the BUF cutter was 12/16/07...we had such a strong high N of Maine that it held the cold in for longer than thought and redeveloped the sfc low near ACY and it crossed PYM and we stayed all frozen...and much of BOS metro stayed snow for most of the precip before the dryslot and then the cold front passed through. In a more traditional "all snow" SWFE, we had 12/13/07 just a few days earlier...the low tracked up the OH valley and then exited the NJ coast...the sleet line got up to about HFD-PVD (just south of PVD actually)...and we all saw a solid 6-10" snowfall. But in circumstances where the low gets too amped up, we see front end snow changing to sleet/ZR and then rain (sometimes us in the interior remains all ice after the flip)...a good example of this is 1/7/09 or 2/13/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 In a SW flow regime...you have impulses coming out of the southwest US and through the OH Valley...if they get too amped up, then the low will cut through BUF or something...if they remain weaker, then you get a low near PIT that redevelops E of NJ or near LI and crosses to our south and we get all snow. In 2007, we had both, but lucked out on the BUF cutter...the BUF cutter was 12/16/07...we had such a strong high N of Maine that it held the cold in for longer than thought and redeveloped the sfc low near ACY and it crossed PYM and we stayed all frozen...and much of BOS metro stayed snow for most of the precip before the dryslot and then the cold front passed through. In a more traditional "all snow" SWFE, we had 12/13/07 just a few days earlier...the low tracked up the OH valley and then exited the NJ coast...the sleet line got up to about HFD-PVD (just south of PVD actually)...and we all saw a solid 6-10" snowfall. But in circumstances where the low gets too amped up, we see front end snow changing to sleet/ZR and then rain (sometimes us in the interior remains all ice after the flip)...a good example of this is 1/7/09 or 2/13/08. That cold frontal passage was one of those protracted deals, though....in which as the front approaches, the wind kicks up and mixes out the inversion in the interior and everyone spikes up and rots there for several hours...what I call a "dirty front". Sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 That d10 storm may go one way or the other, but the real gradient pattern appears to set in after that...in the 11-15 day period. That's when the se ridge will flex and likely help send OV systems our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Thanks Will. 12/13/07 was the biggest impact 6" of dry snow I can recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 That cold frontal passage was one of those protracted deals, though....in which as the front approaches, the wind kicks up and mixes out the inversion in the interior and everyone spikes up and rots there for several hours...what I call a "dirty front". Sucks. Yes our high temp that day (31F) occurred after the winds went W...we had been rotting at like 26-28F before the front. I hate those too and I agree "dirty front" is a good term. But I digress. This pattern should give us a sniff of 2007 if things can break right in the luck of the draw with shortwaves and vortmaxes. I think we'll have a shot. Latitude looks to be at a premium for a any threats between Dec 7-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 You can keep that month. That was a depressing, snowless, b*tch of a month. Lived it in Boston - no snow cover, brutal temps, all snow events staying off to the SW ... for those of us who like cold for its ability to deliver snow, that was one of the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 That cold frontal passage was one of those protracted deals, though....in which as the front approaches, the wind kicks up and mixes out the inversion in the interior and everyone spikes up and rots there for several hours...what I call a "dirty front". Sucks. That storm showed how important the airmass to our north is. We had a solid high pressure north of ME (1040ish?) bringing in frigid air. I remember waking up around 7AM and seeing whiteout conditions with a temp of 15F. By 11AM, we dry slotted and spiked to 38-39F. I think I got 9-10" out of that one. If you got nothing in SE Canada, you won't see such prolific snows on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yes our high temp that day (31F) occurred after the winds went W...we had been rotting at like 26-28F before the front. I hate those too and I agree "dirty front" is a good term. But I digress. This pattern should give us a sniff of 2007 if things can break right in the luck of the draw with shortwaves and vortmaxes. I think we'll have a shot. Latitude looks to be at a premium for a any threats between Dec 7-15. What causes that....is it occlusion... The fact that the wind was west instead of NW probably doesn't help.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 That storm showed how important the airmass to our north is. We had a solid high pressure north of ME (1040ish?) bringing in frigid air. I remember waking up around 7AM and seeing whiteout conditions with a temp of 15F. By 11AM, we dry slotted and spiked to 38-39F. I think I got 9-10" out of that one. If you got nothing in SE Canada, you won't see such prolific snows on the front end. Yea, I got 10" and spiked into the upper 30's around noon....took much longer near about Lowell. Rotted in the mid-upper 30s well after the "front" came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Yea, I got 10" and spiked into the upper 30's around noon....took much longer near about Lowell. Rotted in the mid-upper 30s well after the "front" came through. They do suck. Just when you think you escaped 32, the wind turns west and you warm to like 38F or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 That d10 storm may go one way or the other, but the real gradient pattern appears to set in after that...in the 11-15 day period. That's when the se ridge will flex and likely help send OV systems our way. lol yeah. Day 11-15 could be fun or there could be a long stretch of electrical baths. I'm amazed at how well this pattern has been modeled and we haven't seen a whole lot of changes. Most of us... well, you, me, Phil and Will... have pretty much been on the same page with how this pattern would evolve for the last 10+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 They do suck. Just when you think you escaped 32, the wind turns west and you warm to like 38F or something. Well, I hadn't escaped...just as the snow ended, the marine crap got me around noon and I spiked into the upper 30s.....I was pissed that night though because I sent hours more above freezing than I had expected to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Should be some nice threats to discuss @ the gtg on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 lol yeah. Day 11-15 could be fun or there could be a long stretch of electrical baths. I'm amazed at how well this pattern has been modeled and we haven't seen a whole lot of changes. Most of us... well, you, me, Phil and Will... have pretty much been on the same page with how this pattern would evolve for the last 10+ days. I would defintely feel more comfortable being inland, but I'll take even 2-4". Hopefully they don't turn into next week's disaster. The tendency for the se ridge to pump up and allow the disturbances to be rather potent and amped concerns me...but when you get into December and have all this colder air around...especially with the help of that EPO ridge, you'll probably lessen the risk of a cutter and increase the risk of a more winter like storm. The chances are there....that is about all you can say right now. It's been exceedingly dull since Oct 29th around here, so the chance of winter weather tracking will be welcomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well, I hadn't escaped...just as the snow ended, the marine crap got me around noon and I spiked into the upper 30s.....I was pissed that night though because I sent hours more above freezing than I had expected to. Well you know what I mean...many times that can happen. 32 or 33F....those milder temps suck. I'll let Will explain since you asked him....it will make sense when you hear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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