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Late November/Early December disco on the upcoming pattern


CoastalWx

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Yeah we have been advertising this "cold shot" as transient...but perhaps long enough to get an event or two in here. I'm not sold ona huge torch mid-month, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised. I'd be surprised at sustained below avg temps...but I think we could also remain closer to seasonal levels mid-month if that W Canada ridging hangs tough...even if the EPO goes back to positive.

do you see any chance for a 93-94 style flip in mid December bringing sub zero highs post Christmas? Correct me if i'm wrong, but i think I read somewhere that the Mount Pinatubo eruption of 1991 played some kind of role in the extreme cold that winter.

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we need a roll of the dice where we get a mega (for this year) cannonball to come through and break up the pattern.

Hey, it only takes one storm...lol.

Recall late January 2008 when you had the biggest storm in all of SNE that season. That occurred in a sea of mix events down that way.

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do you see any chance for a 93-94 style flip in mid December bringing sub zero highs post Christmas? Correct me if i'm wrong, but i think I read somewhere that the Mount Pinatubo eruption of 1991 played some kind of role in the extreme cold that winter.

We need the -EPO ridge to gain more amplitude like 93-94, where it forced the PV way south to Hudson Bay. That's a more favorable +NAO pattern than what the models show right now, which is the PV hanging up by Davis Strait/Western Greenland, with little cold air pressing south over the Bay. None of the long-range models seem to amplify that ridge anymore; it eventually just retrogrades and then flattens.

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do you see any chance for a 93-94 style flip in mid December bringing sub zero highs post Christmas? Correct me if i'm wrong, but i think I read somewhere that the Mount Pinatubo eruption of 1991 played some kind of role in the extreme cold that winter.

It probably did...it made the PV obscenely cold IIRC form what I read...but I'm not sure exactly.

That pattern is probably not coming any time soon...but it can't be ruled out later this month. Every so often we see this type of PV intrusion...we saw in Dec 1983 too.

Even January 2004 did it...that is the coldest 3 day average temp in ORH on record believe it or not and several other NE stations.(that Jan 2004 3 day period)

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It probably did...it made the PV obscenely cold IIRC form what I read...but I'm not sure exactly.

That pattern is probably not coming any time soon...but it can't be ruled out later this month. Every so often we see this type of PV intrusion...we saw in Dec 1983 too.

Even January 2004 did it...that is the coldest 3 day average temp in ORH on record believe it or not and several other NE stations.

We hit -18.4F here

That was awesome

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It probably did...it made the PV obscenely cold IIRC form what I read...but I'm not sure exactly.

That pattern is probably not coming any time soon...but it can't be ruled out later this month. Every so often we see this type of PV intrusion...we saw in Dec 1983 too.

Even January 2004 did it...that is the coldest 3 day average temp in ORH on record believe it or not and several other NE stations.(that Jan 2004 3 day period)

You can keep that month.

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Hey, it only takes one storm...lol.

Recall late January 2008 when you had the biggest storm in all of SNE that season. That occurred in a sea of mix events down that way.

I remember he spent the entire afternoon crying about how it was going to underperform, then he wound up in this band from hell and got like 14".

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You can keep that month.

Yeah I wasn't a fan of it...but it shows the power of a displaced PV. We'd like it further north like Jan 1994...more over Hudson Bay...not near Vim Toot's fanny.

I think you were like a -10F for that month on temp departures, lol. -10F in January for the month is some serious stuff...not daily...monthly

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Yeah I wasn't a fan of it...but it shows the power of a displaced PV. We'd like it further north like Jan 1994...more over Hudson Bay...not near Vim Toot's fanny.

I think you were like a -10F for that month on temp departures, lol. -10F in January for the month is some serious stuff...not daily...monthly

I remember that was smack dab in the midst of Fanieul Hall hey day......I simply refused to enter the bar with a jacket because it was inconvenient....I'd park in my staked out spot and walk the ~.5-1 mile to the Purple Shamrock in a T-shirt.....:lol: I was outta my tits back then.

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True but I meant more a pattern wrecking ball...we need a storm with genuine tiger blood.

Not one of these cutoff loner storms either.

That cut-off is so isolated from the polar jet that it's not really going to have an influence on the NAO. It's just a southern stream entity with some manufactured cold air like the 97-98 winter.

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