Organizing Low Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Starfish is stupid i dont understand how they cant react in time to get out of the way. they must be really really dumb or slow? oops....OT sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 This looks great for next week....another torch while it snows in Amarillo, TX. Remember when next week was supposed to be the "cool-down." Doesn't look too impressive with the 850 0C line all the way near the Canadian border, should produce another solid +10F departure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 This looks great for next week....another torch while it snows in Amarillo, TX. Remember when next week was supposed to be the "cool-down." Doesn't look too impressive with the 850 0C line all the way near the Canadian border, should produce another solid +10F departure: Both HM/accuwx and you make the point that I was trying to get across. Pattern creep is occuring. I recognize roughly here things are on schedule but we're seeing a gradual moving back of the onset of the cold. Sure there's a center point now around 12/10 with a few days on either side but is that really going to hold or get deflected NE to some extent in the next 2-3 days of runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Both HM/accuwx and you make the point that I was trying to get across. Pattern creep is occuring. I recognize roughly here things are on schedule but we're seeing a gradual moving back of the onset of the cold. Sure there's a center point now around 12/10 with a few days on either side but is that really going to hold or get deflected NE to some extent in the next 2-3 days of runs? The Dec 3-5 cold shot originally progged was never advertised to be that impressive...mostly near normal to slightly below normal as it had no -EPO and was only +PNA-induced...the Dec 7-10 shot is more impressive with a better transport from the north. It might not be as cold as advertised right now, but it will come. It seems we scrapped the earlier less impressive cold shot for a better one a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Won't surprise me. Did you see what one of the top CPC analogs was today for the 11 day prog (Dec 9th)? It was 12/10/08...the day before the ice storm started, lol. So yeah, its certainly something we could see. LOL, no I didn't look at those today. HA, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Both HM/accuwx and you make the point that I was trying to get across. Pattern creep is occuring. I recognize roughly here things are on schedule but we're seeing a gradual moving back of the onset of the cold. Sure there's a center point now around 12/10 with a few days on either side but is that really going to hold or get deflected NE to some extent in the next 2-3 days of runs? Honestly, as we head into December, I think the next 2-3 weeks will be telling. If cold shots continuously get muted, threats turn into Lake Cutters, and the vortex rebuilds in AK...then we have a concern. However, if we go forward in time and we remain steadfast with at least some chances of wintry weather and don't regress back to this current disaster....then I think it's a good sign we can make a little more improvement heading deeper into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Nate snapped. Who next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Nate snapped. Who next? Even if you're not optimistic, it's too early to throw in the towel for the whole season. At least see how December goes. Although, you may want to start planting your garden in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 This looks great for next week....another torch while it snows in Amarillo, TX. Remember when next week was supposed to be the "cool-down." Doesn't look too impressive with the 850 0C line all the way near the Canadian border, should produce another solid +10F departure: How long are you away for starting 12/17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Even if you're not optimistic, it's too early to throw in the towel for the whole season. Yeah, especially considering the season didn't start yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The Dec 3-5 cold shot originally progged was never advertised to be that impressive...mostly near normal to slightly below normal as it had no -EPO and was only +PNA-induced...the Dec 7-10 shot is more impressive with a better transport from the north. It might not be as cold as advertised right now, but it will come. It seems we scrapped the earlier less impressive cold shot for a better one a few days later. I agree on the sacrifice of one for two right now. The problem has been the 5-7 day seems to be where the cold gets muted off a cliff. IE it'd be tonight and Tuesdays runs that would start to pull the parachute on that cold. We'll see...which ties into --> Honestly, as we head into December, I think the next 2-3 weeks will be telling. If cold shots continuously get muted, threats turn into Lake Cutters, and the vortex rebuilds in AK...then we have a concern. However, if we go forward in time and we remain steadfast with at least some chances of wintry weather and don't regress back to this current disaster....then I think it's a good sign we can make a little more improvement heading deeper into winter. Totally agree. We need to be in an exhausted transistory pattern by the 20th or so. If we are seeing the ridge make a comeback like Clemens on roids that'll be disconcerting. Nate snapped. Who next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 How long are you away for starting 12/17? Until 1/5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I wonder what Will thinks, but the Euro ensembles almost scream an ice storm for someone. Jerry's 93/94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 I agree on the sacrifice of one for two right now. The problem has been the 5-7 day seems to be where the cold gets muted off a cliff. IE it'd be tonight and Tuesdays runs that would start to pull the parachute on that cold. We'll see...which ties into --> Totally agree. We need to be in an exhausted transistory pattern by the 20th or so. If we are seeing the ridge make a comeback like Clemens on roids that'll be disconcerting. As far as the cold being muted, it also may be in the eyes of the beholder. I notice people posting about how the operational runs are cold, but then the ensembles come out and fail to be as cold as the op. I don't think people look at the ensembles as much as the op..and that's ok. It's much easier to have access to the op. Two reasons that ensembles might mute the cold. One of them is the fact that they are composed of many members...some are warm and some may be cold. Smooth them out and you get a more muted picture. The second is that sometimes the op runs are better at showing a more extreme depiction and may be correct in that. Resolution likely plays a role in this. So which is right? Well...both might be correct in some ways. It's usually better to compare with other guidance in order to figure that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 What is going to dislodge that horrible ao/nao combo. Will it peak so massively that the rubber band snaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Might as well mean Howie Mandell because both are saying the same thing. More torches cometh. "However, we aren't done with "torches" by any means. Another widespread shot is coming mid-December. " And worse something is happening to the ozone, Ray must be using his aquanet again. I don't think anyone is suprised by the prospect of another torch around mid month....since most of us felt that sustained cold and snow were not on the immediate horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 What is going to dislodge that horrible ao/nao combo. Will it peak so massively that the rubber band snaps A super nova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 A super nova. We need another massive global earthquake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I don't think anyone is suprised by the prospect of another torch around mid month....since most of us felt that sustained cold and snow were not on the immediate horizon. Yeah we have been advertising this "cold shot" as transient...but perhaps long enough to get an event or two in here. I'm not sold ona huge torch mid-month, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised. I'd be surprised at sustained below avg temps...but I think we could also remain closer to seasonal levels mid-month if that W Canada ridging hangs tough...even if the EPO goes back to positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Or a Pinatubo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 We need another massive global earthquake I can't believe they haven't posted any pics of you electrocuting yourself in the bathtub yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I wonder what Will thinks, but the Euro ensembles almost scream an ice storm for someone. Great....rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Nate snapped. Who next? First one on the ledge.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Congrats Elvis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 We need another massive global earthquake Either the MJO wave can become strong in the more favorable stages and start a chain reaction like last year, or some sort of SSW. I've been looking at 50mb and 10mb temp anomalies and they seem pretty darn cold for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Great....rain. Someone could be Socks, Will or even further south. We'll have residual cold and with the pattern coming up...someone seems like they have a shot at something real messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Someone could be Socks, him, or even further south. We'll have residual cold and with the pattern coming up...someone seems like they have a shot at something real messy. 94 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Someone could be Socks, him, or even further south. We'll have residual cold and with the pattern coming up...someone seems like they have a shot at something real messy. Maybe another 31F ice storm that calls for the National Guard, lol. But in all seriousness, I think we'll have chances, we'll just have to hope the shortwaves aren't phased or hugely amped up...if they aren't, I think we could easily some good SWFEs that produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I can't believe they haven't posted any pics of you electrocuting yourself in the bathtub yet. Wheres Mainejayhawk....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Someone could be Socks, Will or even further south. We'll have residual cold and with the pattern coming up...someone seems like they have a shot at something real messy. Any time I hear "ice threat", I move onto subsequent periods because if it can't snow, then it will rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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