Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 This is your first reasonable weather post since the halloween storm. Welcome back. After the way a few folks treated me today..I figured it was time to snap back to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Dude..the next 7 dys are not going to be normal. As much as I hate to admit it..next 7 days are all above normal. Maybe one normal day on Saturday, Bet, on average dec 1-8 ends up average, six pack of black. We use ORH, so the monthly f6 that comes out Dec 9th for deviation to date decides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Bet, on average dec 1-8 ends up average, six pack of black. We use ORH, so the monthly f6 that comes out Dec 9th decides. Why would we use ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 After the way a few folks treated me today..I figured it was time to snap back to reality I missed that damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Brrr... Seems a little warm to me the beginning of next week. However, get that storm to ride up west of us and we'll torch no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Why would we use ORH? Because BDL is death valley and unreliable. BDR is the new MA, Bos and PVD are marine influenced. No real climo site to get interior dependable reading other than ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Bet, on average dec 1-8 ends up average, six pack of black. We use ORH, so the monthly f6 that comes out Dec 9th for deviation to date decides. P12/1-3 AOA, 12/4-5 much above,12/6-7 below, 12/8-9 AOB. Looks like the average will be above. But then then the next day, 12/10, the pattern change begins. It is complete by 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Bet, on average dec 1-8 ends up average, six pack of black. We use ORH, so the monthly f6 that comes out Dec 9th for deviation to date decides. I think a little above. +0.5F to +1.0F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I wish the weeklies didn't exist. I used to love them, but they have been so bad this fall and either present false hopes or doomsday scenarios..and people ebb and flow with them . Aren't the ensembles enough? there are too many products nowadays. on that note, bring back the NGM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Just bustin like you do bro, just bustin. Stats can be twisted to fit whatever you want if you exclude the background conditions. We will see what transpires. Myself I am looking at things a week at a time. Torch transitioning to normal right on schedule, chances have materialized. Let's see how we do. This season is like going to a movie as a kid for a movie like Star Wars or ET that had enormous waits/lines/sellouts...getting your popcorn, drink, milk duds and whizz out of the way. Going and getting the best seats in the theatre, watching the first few previews which are all on genre and look like great movies...the lights dim, the little musical dudes that tell us not to litter come on the screen and then the lights come back on and they say "sorry we're experiencing some technical difficulties come back three weeks" in the soup nazi voice from Seinfeld. Everyone is on edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well hopefully he doesn't see the weeklies...about the worst pattern possible for the M.A. Its still early though...he can make a big comeback in Jan and be fine. We'll have to worry more here if December is a total dud. the MA is cooked stick a fork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 the MA is cooked stick a fork I think that has been pretty much a given for a while unless we see some huge pattern shifts soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Actually BDR is about 6F warmer than ORH for climo, so a +5 at ORH wouldn't come close to a +3 at BDR. True, orh will be over +6 for the month after tomorrow, absolutely incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well hopefully he doesn't see the weeklies...about the worst pattern possible for the M.A. Its still early though...he can make a big comeback in Jan and be fine. We'll have to worry more here if December is a total dud. The M.A likely toast through the holidays and the new year--and the NYC area is teetering on the edge of the soon-to-be gradient pattern by Day 10..it could go either way. I have to wonder if some are starting to get nervous about the absence of blocking...the QBO should help but really it's looking pretty empty in that department on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Why anyone is on edge in November is beyond me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I don't mind the setup on week 2 and 3 for SNE...we might not cash in, but I think we'll have some chances in that setup. There looks to be some decent cold around in the Dec 8-12 time frame and a SWFE could def produce here....if the details work out which are never known until just a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The M.A likely toast through the holidays and the new year--and the NYC area is teetering on the edge of the soon-to-be gradient pattern by Day 10..it could go either way. I have to wonder if some are starting to get nervous about the absence of blocking...the QBO should help but really it's looking pretty empty in that department on the weeklies. NYC is probably cooked in this pattern...I'm worried about being too far south here. Obviously any one system could break the right way, but the mean pattern is pretty ugly for NYC. Picture Dec 2007 but a smidge northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 there are too many products nowadays. on that note, bring back the NGM! Walt Drag and the NGM, super threads and 05, some things leave great memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I don't mind the setup on week 2 and 3 for SNE...we might not cash in, but I think we'll have some chances in that setup. There looks to be some decent cold around in the Dec 8-12 time frame and a SWFE could def produce here....if the details work out which are never known until just a few days out. I feel pretty good up here if it comes down to a gradient pattern block or no block, The chances are there thats all we can ask 2007-2008 we made out ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 NYC is probably cooked in this pattern...I'm worried about being too far south here. Obviously any one system could break the right way, but the mean pattern is pretty ugly for NYC. Picture Dec 2007 but a smidge northward. I should still be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Are the 12z euro ensembles sticking with cold in the east/GL/NE through d15? Also how does the pacific ridge look after d10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 LOL, watch out for the drive by. Right now at this point in time despite the extreme negativity I stand very firm in my seasonal totals. As usual going to suck to be south of Dobbs Ferry. I'm with you GinXXX. Great launch pad for high seasonal total already in place here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 One thing is for sure, the big AK vortex has been completely snuffed out by Day 7. This is a tremendously anomalous ridge over the Eastern Pacific into the West coast of the US and Western Canada. However the pattern over the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canada is almost so atrocious that it ends up muting things. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f216.gif Then, the ridge over the West coast actually retrogrades to the Gulf of Alaska and then flattens out, which allows heights to rise in the SE US. Obviously this is a good ways away (300+hrs) but it gives you the idea of how this is transpiring and how it could go wrong. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f348.gif Now this is not to say that this pattern can't deliver the goods to New England--in fact that's where the best chances should occur...and over the Lakes north of the thermal gradient. Notice the signal for lower heights and troughiness in the Southwest US as well...those pieces have to eject east/northeast sometime and will do so on the periphery of that Southeast Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 NYC is probably cooked in this pattern...I'm worried about being too far south here. Obviously any one system could break the right way, but the mean pattern is pretty ugly for NYC. Picture Dec 2007 but a smidge northward. to be honest, i'm taking a cautious approach up here....some concern about being too far east, with a mean trough position and gradient that hangs out to the west in the central lakes. historically speaking, when we torch in october and november (like we have), we do not do well the rest of the winter. haivng said that, im encouraged by the changes in the modeling and while the pattern may take an extra 7-10 days to get into SNE, we will be in full transition mode in southern quebec later this week in terms of finally tapping into seasonable temps......a step in the right direction for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 P12/1-3 AOA, 12/4-5 much above,12/6-7 below, 12/8-9 AOB. Looks like the average will be above. But then then the next day, 12/10, the pattern change begins. It is complete by 12/25. I think a little above. +0.5F to +1.0F Could be, might have bet too soon but was hoping that some low level cold offset the above. At any rate nice stretch coming up after this Nov torch. Actually good news on the family dollar front. Cold wet Nov are useless anyways. Said it a hundred times, give me my snow from Christmas to March 1. It's what I expect and only will be disappointed if we do not get one wind whipped heavy Nor'easter. It is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 One thing is for sure, the big AK vortex has been completely snuffed out by Day 7. This is a tremendously anomalous ridge over the Eastern Pacific into the West coast of the US and Western Canada. However the pattern over the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canada is almost so atrocious that it ends up muting things. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f216.gif Then, the ridge over the West coast actually retrogrades to the Gulf of Alaska and then flattens out, which allows heights to rise in the SE US. Obviously this is a good ways away (300+hrs) but it gives you the idea of how this is transpiring and how it could go wrong. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f348.gif Now this is not to say that this pattern can't deliver the goods to New England--in fact that's where the best chances should occur...and over the Lakes north of the thermal gradient. Notice the signal for lower heights and troughiness in the Southwest US as well...those pieces have to eject east/northeast sometime and will do so on the periphery of that Southeast Ridge. That's the most frustrating part of this. We're just out of alignment a bit. Looks a lot like the hemispheric map Will posted. A little here, a little there things could be good but not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I should still be fine. We should hope. No guarantees even if the pattern ends up similar. We are at the mercy of the individual shortwaves and impulses headed east into the gradient...if they are too amped up or robust, then we are probably screwed. But no need to worry about all of that yet...lets just get to the gradient pattern first and see it materialize. There's been enough minor changes that another one could change it again for us. Hopefully its for the better and not worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I feel pretty good up here if it comes down to a gradient pattern block or no block, The chances are there thats all we can ask 2007-2008 we made out ok ME's winter is least in jeopardy of anyone's.,,,theoretically, anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 One thing is for sure, the big AK vortex has been completely snuffed out by Day 7. This is a tremendously anomalous ridge over the Eastern Pacific into the West coast of the US and Western Canada. However the pattern over the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canada is almost so atrocious that it ends up muting things. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f216.gif Then, the ridge over the West coast actually retrogrades to the Gulf of Alaska and then flattens out, which allows heights to rise in the SE US. Obviously this is a good ways away (300+hrs) but it gives you the idea of how this is transpiring and how it could go wrong. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f348.gif Now this is not to say that this pattern can't deliver the goods to New England--in fact that's where the best chances should occur...and over the Lakes north of the thermal gradient. Notice the signal for lower heights and troughiness in the Southwest US as well...those pieces have to eject east/northeast sometime and will do so on the periphery of that Southeast Ridge. This whole setup seems a bit unconventional, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 ME's winter is least in jeopardy of anyone's. Well, We would hope so but 2006 brings back bad memories here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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