weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'll transmit the news so people don't beat up Scooter. The Euro weeklies are horrific for week 4 from Dec 21-28...hopefully they don't verify as they have low heights building back into AK. Week 4 has been precarious anyway...week 2 and 3 are definitely gradient type patterns. We may or may not make out well in that setup. I'd feel a little better if we were further north, but there is some cold air lurking in Canada and trying to seep into New England it looks at times with a SE ridge and a +PNA (week 2) transitioning to -PNA gradient pattern in week 3. The warm anomalies in that gradient pattern are centered over the Carolinas and into VA. All of the weeks have a hugely +NAO. Will, are these a "tweaking of last Thursday's weeks? Iow......same time period covered but some new data? I'm not getting the value of twice a week of one is a tweak.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I wish the weeklies didn't exist. I used to love them, but they have been so bad this fall and either present false hopes or doomsday scenarios..and people ebb and flow with them Aren't the ensembles enough? I wouldn't pay attention too much to week 4...but they have done a good job at outlining the general potential for this current torch we are seeing that will last into the first several days of December. Nobody wanted to believe them a couple weeks ago when they showed it, but they had some support with the MJO and such that it was easier to believe from an objective standpoint. I think the weeklies are more volatile when there is less forcing going on from the tropics...they did miss the AK ridge though for Dec 7-13ish or so time frame...so they certainly aren't perfect. They are another tool to use if you can measure them next to some other data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Weeklies don't come out till Thursday wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I wouldn't pay attention too much to week 4...but they have done a good job at outlining the general potential for this current torch we are seeing that will last into the first several days of December. Nobody wanted to believe them a couple weeks ago when they showed it, but they had some support with the MJO and such that it was easier to believe from an objective standpoint. I think the weeklies are more volatile when there is less forcing going on from the tropics...they did miss the AK ridge though for Dec 7-13ish or so time frame...so they certainly aren't perfect. They are another tool to use if you can measure them next to some other data. But I think they had this period we're in now either normal or even slightly below at weeks 3 and 4. They certainly never had +15 and above type disaster that we:ve seemingly been in since the snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Will, are these a "tweaking of last Thursday's weeks? Iow......same time period covered but some new data? I'm not getting the value of twice a week of one is a tweak.... Yes they are a tweak of Thursday's output. I guess we'll see how the newer versions verify vs the Thursday versions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 But I think they had this period we're in now either normal or even slightly below at weeks 3 and 4. They certainly never had +15 and above type disaster that we:ve seemingly been in since the snowstorm The early Nov weeklies for week 4 had late Nov near average...but then we saw a huge flip in them a week later, and that was when all of us said "uh oh"....we had reason to believe the flip was real...esp with the support of the MJO going into phase 3 and 4. As mentioned, take week 4 with a big grain of salt. Weeks 2/3 is what I like to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'll transmit the news so people don't beat up Scooter. . LOL Who did that? Must have been Kev, damn I missed all the good stuff today. JI died again, what a meltdown, classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 LOL Who did that? Must have been Kev, damn I missed all the good stuff today. JI died again, what a meltdown, classic. I didn't do anything to Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 LOL Who did that? Must have been Kev, damn I missed all the good stuff today. JI died again, what a meltdown, classic. Well hopefully he doesn't see the weeklies...about the worst pattern possible for the M.A. Its still early though...he can make a big comeback in Jan and be fine. We'll have to worry more here if December is a total dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 There already seems like there are some folks that are ready to walk off the ledge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'll transmit the news so people don't beat up Scooter. The Euro weeklies are horrific for week 4 from Dec 21-28...hopefully they don't verify as they have low heights building back into AK. Week 4 has been precarious anyway...week 2 and 3 are definitely gradient type patterns. We may or may not make out well in that setup. I'd feel a little better if we were further north, but there is some cold air lurking in Canada and trying to seep into New England it looks at times with a SE ridge and a +PNA (week 2) transitioning to -PNA gradient pattern in week 3. The warm anomalies in that gradient pattern are centered over the Carolinas and into VA. All of the weeks have a hugely +NAO. wow..at least in 01-02 we had a cold week around Christmas..Buffalo got record breaking snow..that's crazy stuff..December as warm as November?..don't believe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I never knew that if you don't talk about heavy heavy snow all the time, it must mean the pattern has gotten to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Well hopefully he doesn't see the weeklies...about the worst pattern possible for the M.A. Its still early though...he can make a big comeback in Jan and be fine. We'll have to worry more here if December is a total dud. There already seems like there are some folks that are ready to walk off the ledge I could envision multiple drive by induced 5 posts and bannings. Guess I better put the snowblower way, repack the skis and winter gear and head south to the new MA in SWCT with my flippers and catch some mini waves on the sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I wish the weeklies didn't exist. I used to love them, but they have been so bad this fall and either present false hopes or doomsday scenarios..and people ebb and flow with them . Aren't the ensembles enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Oh it's going to get better. I pray oh do I pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 wow..at least in 01-02 we had a cold week around Christmas..Buffalo got record breaking snow..that's crazy stuff..December as warm as November?..don't believe it Even if it is...averages come down. A +20 day on Nov 15 is 71 degrees. A +20 day on Dec 15 is near 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Time to short heating oil. And go long on coppertone and tevas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Even if it is...averages come down. A +20 day on Nov 15 is 71 degrees. A +20 day on Dec 15 is near 60 degrees. Good news...it's not AIDS, it's gonherrea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Well the ECMWF will be releasing the "decadals". They're released the first day of the month. Rumor has it Thursday's release shows an old fashioned sinker of a winter in 2018-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Time to lather short weenies in oil. And go long on Kev and Ginx. We all have our ways of coping....seems the CT contigent is rather "innovative".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I could envision multiple drive by induced 5 posts and bannings. Guess I better put the snowblower way, repack the skis and winter gear and head south to the new MA in SWCT with my flippers and catch some mini waves on the sound. Actually that would be at orh at 5.1 and bos at 4.4 whilst bdr is 3.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I could envision multiple drive by induced 5 posts and bannings. Guess I better put the snowblower way, repack the skis and winter gear and head south to the new MA in SWCT with my flippers and catch some mini waves on the sound. I don't know why some are ready to swing from the rafters in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 We all have our ways of coping....seems the CT contigent is rather "innovative".... LOL, watch out for the drive by. Right now at this point in time despite the extreme negativity I stand very firm in my seasonal totals. As usual going to suck to be south of Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Ray why bother, it's the same thing every year from him. Sure because I chime in so much on long term winter stuff in November. Normally I'm busy doing other things but it's so hot this year I'm forced to work in side with the air conditioning. -- A bunch of updated winter forecasts will be out in the next 2 days. I'll be curious to see which direction they go. TT and Will make valid points about the relevance of what BB posted, but it's kind of interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Actually that would be at orh at 5.1 and bos at 4.4 whilst bdr is 3.2 Actually BDR is about 6F warmer than ORH for climo, so a +5 at ORH wouldn't come close to a +3 at BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Sure because I chime in so much on long term winter stuff in November. Normally I'm busy doing other things but it's so hot this year I'm forced to work in side with the air conditioning. -- A bunch of updated winter forecasts will be out in the next 2 days. I'll be curious to see which direction they go. TT and Will make valid points about the relevance of what BB posted, but it's kind of interesting to say the least. Just bustin like you do bro, just bustin. Stats can be twisted to fit whatever you want if you exclude the background conditions. We will see what transpires. Myself I am looking at things a week at a time. Torch transitioning to normal right on schedule, chances have materialized. Let's see how we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Actually BDR is about 6F warmer than ORH for climo, so a +5 at ORH wouldn't come close to a +3 at BDR. Exactly, but in reality that's the past, the near future looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Just bustin like you do bro, just bustin. Stats can be twisted to fit whatever you want if you exclude the background conditions. We will see what transpires. Myself I am looking at things a week at a time. Torch transitioning to normal right on schedule, chances have materialized. Let's see how we do. Dude..the next 7 dys are not going to be normal. As much as I hate to admit it..next 7 days are all above normal. Maybe one normal day on Saturday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I think the discussion all along the last few weeks was that the 1st couple weeks of December were not looking all that great, So i don't know why all of a sudden this becomes a big shock.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Dude..the next 7 dys are not going to be normal. As much as I hate to admit it..next 7 days are all above normal. Maybe one normal day on Saturday, This is your first reasonable weather post since the halloween storm. Welcome back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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