Late November/Early December disco on the upcoming pattern

[Ji]

i just want to die

[toronto blizzard]

12z EURO ensembles look good past d10?

[Ginx snewx]

i just want to die

Just move now, 2010 was it. You will get a good storm or 2 in Jan per climo, 18-24 annual.

[40/70 Benchmark]

i just want to die

Whack it Feb 2010 pics and threads...all you've got.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

There's mpre that didn't change I think...those horrible late 90s Ninas and of course some of the 80s. But I think its more damning if it doesn't change by mid/late December rather than early December. If we can get a decent period in by mid/late Dec then we probably will not have to think about those winters as much.

Thanks and I'd agree just from memory...if we're still looking at D10-15 as the promised land by mid December we may have some legitimate issues.

[OKpowdah]

i just want to die

January 2012

[40/70 Benchmark]

Thanks and I'd agree just from memory...if we're still looking at D10-15 as the promised land by mid December we may have some legitimate issues.

Even then you never know.....93-94 kicked off just after xmas....hell, 2004-05 really got underway around xmas, save for one rather tame Vet's day event.

2006-07 (I know) took until the 2nd half of Jan and it was still pretty good across NNE.

[kdxken]

There's mpre that didn't change I think...those horrible late 90s Ninas and of course some of the 80s. But I think its more damning if it doesn't change by mid/late December rather than early December. If we can get a decent period in by mid/late Dec then we probably will not have to think about those winters as much.

This might help:

"Well, it appears that the last 4 days of this month will feature much above average temperatures so it will likely go into the record books as the 4th warmest November ever. November 1975 was the warmest and that was followed by a season of slightly above average snowfall. However, based upon a study of the past 25 years, Novembers that were more than +1.5 degrees ( 1988, 90, 94, 99, 2001, 06, 09), the following seasonal snowfalls were significantly below average."

[HoarfrostHubb]

Whack it Feb 2010 pics and threads...all you've got.

Well, you do it to Jan/Feb 2011 snowpack, lol

You still owe me a March biggie

Do weak Ninas help us in Spring?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

This might help:

"Well, it appears that the last 4 days of this month will feature much above average temperatures so it will likely go into the record books as the 4th warmest November ever. November 1975 was the warmest and that was followed by a season of slightly above average snowfall. However, based upon a study of the past 25 years, Novembers that were more than +1.5 degrees ( 1988, 90, 94, 99, 2001, 06, 09), the following seasonal snowfalls were significantly below average."

DOH!

Where did that come from?

[kdxken]

DOH!

Where did that come from?

Sorry, Barry Burbank

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2011/11/26/4th-warmest-november-on-record/

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, you do it to Jan/Feb 2011 snowpack, lol

You still owe me a March biggie

Do weak Ninas help us in Spring?

Yea, but that isn't all I've got.

I'd be shocked if we get skunked again, this March....just pure probability.....would NOT be shocked if this Dec blew chunks.

Due for each.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This might help:

"Well, it appears that the last 4 days of this month will feature much above average temperatures so it will likely go into the record books as the 4th warmest November ever. November 1975 was the warmest and that was followed by a season of slightly above average snowfall. However, based upon a study of the past 25 years, Novembers that were more than +1.5 degrees ( 1988, 90, 94, 99, 2001, 06, 09), the following seasonal snowfalls were significantly below average."

As emotionally tramatizing as that winter was for me (09-10), I'll take that pattern again in a heartbeat......the others blow.

[Ginx snewx]

Even then you never know.....93-94 kicked off just after xmas....hell, 2004-05 really got underway around xmas, save for one rather tame Vet's day event.

2006-07 (I know) took until the 2nd half of Jan and it was still pretty good across NNE.

Ray why bother, it's the same thing every year from him.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ray why bother, it's the same thing every year from him.

As great as this forum is, this is an externality of it; the overanalyzation and the obesessive vigil leads to alot of premature and unnecessary angst.

[ORH_wxman]

This might help:

"Well, it appears that the last 4 days of this month will feature much above average temperatures so it will likely go into the record books as the 4th warmest November ever. November 1975 was the warmest and that was followed by a season of slightly above average snowfall. However, based upon a study of the past 25 years, Novembers that were more than +1.5 degrees ( 1988, 90, 94, 99, 2001, 06, 09), the following seasonal snowfalls were significantly below average."

That is definitely ugly...however, since 1975, all those years save 2009 have been in the warmer phase of the Pacific during the last +PDO multi-decadal phase along with the the positive AO phase...you could argue '99 and '01 but the North America patterns didn't really become typical -PDO multi-decadal phase response until 2007...at least in winter.

So its hard to know how much was influenced by that. The 1960s had some torch Novembers that still produced a lot of snow...1960, 1961, 1963, and 1966 to be specific.

[Typhoon Tip]

12z EURO ensembles look good past d10?

awesome heading on into february -

[40/70 Benchmark]

awesome heading on into february -

[Typhoon Tip]

This might help:

"Well, it appears that the last 4 days of this month will feature much above average temperatures so it will likely go into the record books as the 4th warmest November ever. November 1975 was the warmest and that was followed by a season of slightly above average snowfall. However, based upon a study of the past 25 years, Novembers that were more than +1.5 degrees ( 1988, 90, 94, 99, 2001, 06, 09), the following seasonal snowfalls were significantly below average."

Ehhh, not so sure that should be liberally applied to the current times. The AO/NAO multi-decadal monitering shows a distinct, albeit ~ 30 year tendency to vascillate between predominantly positive vs negative modes. Over the last several years, save for that one oddball obsurdity 2006 autumn into winter, the mode tendency has re-entered a 30 year long negative - which simply put, -AO/-NAO would be favored now. Contrasting, the 1980 through about 2005 the mode was either rising or positive.

In other words, a warm November in 1988 I don't think would correlate the same way now.

One thing he does bring to light (no pun intended) that I agree with is the uncertainty surrounding the recent upward flux in solar activity. There is definitely a correlation between solar and resident ozone in the stratosphere, and ozone is shown to be correlated to warming events in the confines of the PV ...subsequently leading to increased blocking. Regarding solar, we are actually in a 15 year interval when maxes will be less and minimums more extreme, because there is a temporal superposition of 11, 22 and I believe 300 years minima that are lining up on top of one another. That does not mean, however, NO solar activity, and certainly since August there has been enough excited activity to wonder if that will directly effect the AO. Anyway, I recall saying myself back in a GTG in Worcester that the solar had me a bit spooked. We'll see..

That said, it isn't a tremendous leap to assume we won't get a protracted 6-week long cold and snow like last winter, because that was truly off-the charts and epic - really. One cannot really expect that year to year. The writing was on the wall on that as about 10 days before x-mass last year as the global indices really flagged that. If something so astounding were in the cards I am sure it would show up with enough lead to mention.

[CoastalWx]

Nick, I posted the single month composite for a certain MJO phase. Skier posted a Nina DJF composite for phase 4 or whatever it was. They will look a little different. I just posted phase 6 (I think it was phase 6) to illustrate a point.

[Typhoon Tip]

Nick, I posted the single month composite for a certain MJO phase. Skier posted a Nina DJF composite for phase 4 or whatever it was. They will look a little different. I just posted phase 6 (I think it was phase 6) to illustrate a point.

whatever - it's all your fault

[weathafella]

Ehhh, not so sure that should be liberally applied to the current times. The AO/NAO multi-decadal monitering shows a distinct, albeit ~ 30 year tendency to vascillate between predominantly positive vs negative modes. Over the last several years, save for that one oddball obsurdity 2006 autumn into winter, the mode tendency has re-entered a 30 year long negative - which simply put, -AO/-NAO would be favored now. Contrasting, the 1980 through about 2005 the mode was either rising or positive.

In other words, a warm November in 1988 I don't think would correlate the same way now.

One thing he does bring to light (no pun intended) that I agree with is the uncertainty surrounding the recent upward flux in solar activity. There is definitely a correlation between solar and resident ozone in the stratosphere, and ozone is shown to be correlated to warming events in the confines of the PV ...subsequently leading to increased blocking. Regarding solar, we are actually in a 15 year interval when maxes will be less and minimums more extreme, because there is a temporal superposition of 11, 22 and I believe 300 years minima that are lining up on top of one another. That does not mean, however, NO solar activity, and certainly since August there has been enough excited activity to wonder if that will directly effect the AO. Anyway, I recall saying myself back in a GTG in Worcester that the solar had me a bit spooked. We'll see..

That said, it isn't a tremendous leap to assume we won't get a protracted 6-week long cold and snow like last winter, because that was truly off-the charts and epic - really. One cannot really expect that year to year. The writing was on the wall on that as about 10 days before x-mass last year as the global indices really flagged that. If something so astounding were in the cards I am sure it would show up with enough lead to mention.

You're smart man!

[40/70 Benchmark]

whatever - it's all your fault

Careful....Scotter has been know to exhibit a rather sneaky temper.

[snowNH]

lol at 18z GFS... where do we buy sand bags? The front of all fronts is coming....

[CoastalWx]

Careful....Scotter has been know to exhibit a rather sneaky temper.

I never knew that if you don't talk about heavy heavy snow all the time, it must mean the pattern has gotten to you.

[Damage In Tolland]

Tough for Ji down in the midatlantic . We are lucky we live up here..Esp if the gradient pattern sets up like we think it will as we head for mid motnh. One of those deals where it's 65-70 in DC and snow and 27 in BOS.

[weathafella]

Tough for Ji down in the midatlantic . We are lucky we live up here..Esp if the gradient pattern sets up like we think it will as we head for mid motnh. One of those deals where it's 65-70 in DC and snow and 27 in BOS.

I think we had an event in January 1999 where BOS was snowing and 9 and dc was in the 50s.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I never knew that if you don't talk about heavy heavy snow all the time, it must mean the pattern has gotten to you.

You been cranky today...

[ORH_wxman]

I'll transmit the news so people don't beat up Scooter.

The Euro weeklies are horrific for week 4 from Dec 21-28...hopefully they don't verify as they have low heights building back into AK. Week 4 has been precarious anyway...week 2 and 3 are definitely gradient type patterns. We may or may not make out well in that setup. I'd feel a little better if we were further north, but there is some cold air lurking in Canada and trying to seep into New England it looks at times with a SE ridge and a +PNA (week 2) transitioning to -PNA gradient pattern in week 3. The warm anomalies in that gradient pattern are centered over the Carolinas and into VA.

All of the weeks have a hugely +NAO.

[Damage In Tolland]

I wish the weeklies didn't exist. I used to love them, but they have been so bad this fall and either present false hopes or doomsday scenarios..and people ebb and flow with them . Aren't the ensembles enough?