ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 It still has that little mini-recharge of the -EPO around Dec 11 which is good. Helps keep Canada cold. The SW trough tries to get the SE ridge going...its def a gradient type pattern. Maybe we can do a Dec 13 redux 4 years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 It still has that little mini-recharge of the -EPO around Dec 11 which is good. Helps keep Canada cold. The SW trough tries to get the SE ridge going...its def a gradient type pattern. Maybe we can do a Dec 13 redux 4 years later. That system featured the most prolific poor snow growth that I have ever witnessed, accompanied by the worst disruption to traffic that I have ever experienced......it just poured snow grains for hours. Mt. Tolland jackpotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Okay...so, who wants to go and punch in an intense Phase 3 MJO wave and see what the pattern correlation is ...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That system featured the most prolific poor snow growth that I have ever witnessed, accompanied by the worst disruption to traffic that I have ever experienced......it just poured snow grains for hours. Mt. Tolland jackpotted. That gridlock Thursday. I have never seen anything like it before or since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 A week or so back I think Scott (coastalwx) posted some MJO correlation maps...but for some reason...Skierinvermonth posted MJO correlation maps and they looked significantly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That gridlock Thursday. I have never seen anything like it before or since. It was like the blizzard of '78 reincarnated as a swfe.....4 hours later, I was home from UML.....most days a 25 minute journey; not that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That system featured the most prolific poor snow growth that I have ever witnessed, accompanied by the worst disruption to traffic that I have ever experienced......it just poured snow grains for hours. Mt. Tolland jackpotted. That was just an awesome sight, so much so whenever it snows and accumates like that I immediately revert back to that day. Jan 27 last year had a similar period of intense small flake quick accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Okay...so, who wants to go and punch in an intense Phase 3 MJO wave and see what the pattern correlation is ...? La Nina phase 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 A week or so back I think Scott (coastalwx) posted some MJO correlation maps...but for some reason...Skierinvermonth posted MJO correlation maps and they looked significantly different. I guess I'll have to dig around for them... anyway, I am having diffculty imagining this: http://www.cpc.ncep....html#discussion ...as being very good when there is no -AO to counter-balance. But who knows - EDIT: Thanks Will! yeah...again... yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Okay...so, who wants to go and punch in an intense Phase 3 MJO wave and see what the pattern correlation is ...? the quick and dirty method: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 the quick and dirty method: Is Phase 7 good for us?..and when do you think that happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 the quick and dirty method: Does the brighter orange stand for higher probability of heavy snows? That's an ugly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I guess I'll have to dig around for them... anyway, I am having diffculty imagining this: http://www.cpc.ncep....html#discussion ...as being very good when there is no -AO to counter-balance. But who knows - EDIT: Thanks Will! yeah...again... yuck. Phase 3 is very consistent with the torch we are seeing right now and the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Phase is very consistent with the torch we are seeing right now and the next few days. hmm, i was wonderinin if there's any lag that should be applied though... i mean, the wheeler diagram and current NCEP prog has a death march through strongish phase 4 on into 5, yet over the next 10 days we have a rather anticorrelated looking cold dump off the -EPO. heh, if nothing else it underscores the precept that there is a disconnect in the EPO-NAO axis with regard to the MJO. ...or does it. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Is Phase 7 good for us?..and when do you think that happens? phase 7 doesn't have a very strong significance % in the late fall/early winter season but would be a cooler set-up. phase 8 and 1 would be good. i don't see us going there. but that doesn't necessarily matter. tropical forcing isn't the be-all-end-all by any means. just another piece to the puzzle. most of the available products outside of the gfs based cluster weaken the current pulse and eventually swing it weakly into 5/6/COD. the ncep products for some reason are on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Does the brighter orange stand for higher probability of heavy snows? That's an ugly map. yeah, it's awesome... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Here's the MJO and all of its phases http://wwa.colorado.edu/IWCS/archive/IWCS_2008_May_focus.pdf CPC http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Does the brighter orange stand for higher probability of heavy snows? That's an ugly map. it fits really well with what's going on. we'll see things shift around with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Not sure if anyone has posted the newer CPC 8-14 day issued 11/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The Euro ensembles post-D10 actually look pretty similar to the MJO phase 7 composite during La Nina even though it wont be in phase 7...but its definitely similar to this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'll bet we see the Euo lose the intensity of that cold shot next week. It had something similiar to that for the end of this week cold shot but a little warmer.. Thankfully an overall colder pattern is setting up laer this week into next. Not 100% wintry but inordinate amts better than this firepit of hell we've been in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The Euro ensembles post-D10 actually look pretty similar to the MJO phase 7 composite during La Nina even though it wont be in phase 7...but its definitely similar to this pattern What is the data set. How many years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 The Euro ensembles post-D10 actually look pretty similar to the MJO phase 7 composite during La Nina even though it wont be in phase 7...but its definitely similar to this pattern You're the guy with a better grasp of history than anyone. What's your take of our odds stacked up against years past? You are right that image pretty well illustrates the broad brush pattern the models are pointing towards in that timeframe. How many early winters/late falls had this consistent of a warmth train wreck and rebounded? I'll bet we see the Euo lose the intensity of that cold shot next week. It had something similiar to that for the end of this week cold shot but a little warmer.. Thankfully an overall colder pattern is setting up laer this week into next. Not 100% wintry but inordinate amts better than this firepit of hell we've been in We really need it to cool down. This was nice, but it's getting ridiculous to see people running in tank tops and shorts in almost December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Here's the MJO and all of its phases http://wwa.colorado....8_May_focus.pdf CPC http://www.cpc.ncep....k/MJO/mjo.shtml good christ! that CPC link's wheeler depiction looks like a commet impact must be predicted for Pacific Basin. yeah i provided that same link a few posts ago. but Will's right folks. there is definitely a disconnect between the polarward indices and tropical forcing - they can either come into phase or disrupt oneanother depending on what is going on et al. there is a kind of split hadly cell as implied by ncep. the WPO/NPO is bullishly heading into the AB phase, meanwhile the MJO's doing it's own oblivious thing. but as he also said, the NCEP products are for some reason lubing up the index and taking it out on a date for some reason. not sure why they are insistent on that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 What is the data set. How many years? Raleighwx made those maps...I think its 1950-2007 and every single day where the MEI was less than -0.5C and the MJO was robust enough to make a decent influence (amplitude greater than 1)...you'd have to ask him for more details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Raleighwx made those maps...I think its 1950-2007 and every single day where the MEI was less than -0.5C and the MJO was robust enough to make a decent influence (amplitude greater than 1)...you'd have to ask him for more details. Just wondering how many weak Nina years and MJO in that phase there are, both your maps had only 89/96 as references. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 You're the guy with a better grasp of history than anyone. What's your take of our odds stacked up against years past? You are right that image pretty well illustrates the broad brush pattern the models are pointing towards in that timeframe. How many early winters/late falls had this consistent of a warmth train wreck and rebounded? Its hard to say...I haven't memorized every year, but I know off the top of my head that 1960, 1961, 1975, and 1993 all had significant warmth across the CONUS for long periods in November/December and then flipped soon after to have prolonged periods of snow and cold. I think all of them had huge torches in November except maybe '93 which torched mostly late that month and most of the first half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Just wondering how many weak Nina years and MJO in that phase there are, both your maps had only 89/96 as references. You can't see all the dates...it only fits some of them on there. There are a lot that aren't seen on the bottom of that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 good christ! that CPC link's wheeler depiction looks like a commet impact must be predicted for Pacific Basin. yeah i provided that same link a few posts ago. but Will's right folks. there is definitely a disconnect between the polarward indices and tropical forcing - they can either come into phase or disrupt oneanother depending on what is going on et al. there is a kind of split hadly cell as implied by ncep. the WPO/NPO is bullishly heading into the AB phase, meanwhile the MJO's doing it's own oblivious thing. but as he also said, the NCEP products are for some reason lubing up the index and taking it out on a date for some reason. not sure why they are insistent on that - Looks to me like you're right, we're going to see a marked battle between varying forces and we just don't know which one will win yet. There's a lot of cold air coming around up in Canada. Hard pressed to think we won't be able to make use of some of it. Its hard to say...I haven't memorized every year, but I know off the top of my head that 1960, 1961, 1975, and 1993 all had significant warmth across the CONUS for long periods in November/December and then flipped soon after to have prolonged periods of snow and cold. I think all of them had huge torches in November except maybe '93 which torched mostly late that month and most of the first half of December. Thanks Will. Do you remember any that didn't turn colder in later December? To the naked eye the pattern looks exhausted towards mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Thanks Will. Do you remember any that didn't turn colder in later December? To the naked eye the pattern looks exhausted towards mid December. There's mpre that didn't change I think...those horrible late 90s Ninas and of course some of the 80s. But I think its more damning if it doesn't change by mid/late December rather than early December. If we can get a decent period in by mid/late Dec then we probably will not have to think about those winters as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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