A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Canadian does not play ball, holds SW cutoff back much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 NAM/GFS differences at 60hr,72hr,84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Canadian does not play ball, holds SW cutoff back much longer. But look what it does with it at 132hr when it finally comes out. Starting a thread one of these possible events is like throwing a dart and a dart board blindfolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 But look what it does with it at 132hr when it finally comes out. Starting a thread one of these possible events is like throwing a dart and a dart board blindfolded. yeah i saw that, I'm fine for keeping all discussion re: this cutoff in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Lol wheres Hoosier? The NAM drops almost 8-10" at LAF with still good snow all the way back to OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 12z ECMWF has the first wave move from TX/LA up to NY/PA, with light snow on the backside. It's also going with the two wave solution as it had last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 12z ECMWF has the first wave move from TX/LA up to NY/PA, with light snow on the backside. It's also going with the two wave solution as it had last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Right now it seems like this month is getting off to a familiar start. Time will tell if it holds. You guys been hiding in caves or something? Just yesterday there was a significant winter storm that just missed you. Its not like there has been "zero winter" so far this year. Yeah, it sucks to be "nicked" by a good storm. Been there too many times. But I'm already over a foot on the young season IMBY, so no, it has not been the same as last yr at all. Hang in there, you'll be joining the party soon enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 what weak low there is on the 12z Euro is still north of the 12z GFS mean GFS Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It's hard to NOT get excited over the 12z NAM...would be a major snowstorm, the H7 low is still sitting back over OK with big snow from sw MO to LAF, crazy baroclinic zone to ride and feed off of. Not to take anything to the extreme, but the last time I saw the baroclinic zone looking like that, was GHD. Pretty darn similar placement too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Why have the dates not been changed or a separate thread for the encore storm? lol superstition is for children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Why have the dates not been changed or a separate thread for the encore storm? lol superstition is for children. The encore storm, if there even is one, is being show anywhere from 84-144 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 SREF does pretty much the same thing as the NAM as far as surface/precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Why have the dates not been changed or a separate thread for the encore storm? lol superstition is for children. simple look at the models could tell you why.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well, for what it is worth, which isn't much, I just don't see this second wave going that far east. While everything is showing the cold pouring in early next week, It won't be as big of a push as models are showing. There is no snowcover on the ground in most of wisconsin as well as minn. Just my opinoin which like I said isn't based on a whole lot. It would follow the past week or so of temps. We have been consistantly forcasted for cooler temps than what is actually realized. Yesterday for example was supposed to top out at 37. We ended up around 42 I believe. We'll see what happens, but im betting it gets much closer to Chi than what it looks like right now. I agree with your hypothesis. I think the path the NAM has the first storm is good for laying the groundwork for the encore portion of energy! The SE ridge is strong and I don't expect any model runs to move it further east then the GFS is now. I think the NAM is doing a good job with this current storm. Let it be warm tomorrow if it means more snow next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 DGEX is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 you know it's winter when the dgex is getting busted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 DGEX is on board. 18" for whats his face, Friv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I agree that climo says this ends up a bit NW of where the models are showing now. Unless we're talking an overwhelming arctic outbreak, the "typical" track would put Chicago in the game, if not the bullseye. Having said that, a marginal temp event (especially with stronger NE winds) brings into play a warm Lake Mich and could easily "hose" the city and those folks closer to the shoreline. Seen it b4. Some times that big water can be a plus (later season storms like GHD), and sometimes it can be a curse.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 What is interesting, and yes climo applies, but for us, here in east central IN, the past 4 weeks have seen a large precip maker each time in this same frame - Mon into Wed. This pattern is continuing, and while all have been warm, the trend has been right along this path, not so much NW, into Chi/Wisc as normally happens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitizedmind75 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 ILX - AFD Being very conservative and cautious.... as usual. LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY CHANCES OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRSS RIDGING REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE US THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL KEEP SOME PCPN IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. THEN EXPECTING DRY WEATHER FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PTYPE WILL BE MAINLY MIX OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL ALL SNOW DURING THE NIGHT PERIODS. THE CHC OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA WITH SLIGHT CHC IN AREAS AROUND I-70. AUTEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I agree that climo says this ends up a bit NW of where the models are showing now. Unless we're talking an overwhelming arctic outbreak, the "typical" track would put Chicago in the game, if not the bullseye. Having said that, a marginal temp event (especially with stronger NE winds) brings into play a warm Lake Mich and could easily "hose" the city and those folks closer to the shoreline. Seen it b4. Some times that big water can be a plus (later season storms like GHD), and sometimes it can be a curse.. I can't see any bitter cold air much further south from the snow that will be laid down this weekend. The winter of 2007-2008 we had multiple snow events ride the SW flow into the area. SE ridge helped keep the storm track in the OV. Looks like the first low is going to pass right over La Crosse, WI or maybe a touch south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 What is interesting, and yes climo applies, but for us, here in east central IN, the past 4 weeks have seen a large precip maker each time in this same frame - Mon into Wed. This pattern is continuing, and while all have been warm, the trend has been right along this path, not so much NW, into Chi/Wisc as normally happens.... Yeah you make a great point. We haven't seen the usual NW shift into IL and WI like normal, just look at the last snowstorm. That thing actually moved somewhat east the closer it got to the storm. We'll see if there's a return to original climo here with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Climo for La Nina would suggest the OV for a storm coming out of OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Lol wheres Hoosier? The NAM drops almost 8-10" at LAF with still good snow all the way back to OKC. I'm watching. Agreement not very good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The WI snow graphic has La Crosse in the 4-6 inch range, so I think DLL will do fine, as long as the models don't shift further NW. Granted, I'd rather be in the Eau Claire or Rhinelander regions, but it should be remembered that the Nov. 9-10 storm shifted SE from a very similar position within 24 hours, so it is possible to see the band shift into the La Crosse area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I'm not holding my breath, but the potential is there for a good accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 watching, but like Hoosier not holding my breath either... they did start talking about it in the extended forecast on the news tonight, but nothing drastic.... to be honest I'm kinda like huh where did that come from right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 This second system is looking more and more interesting, but I'm not ready to bite just yet on anything to drastic. Play things conservative for now and make sure the energy is going to roll out and not get trapped in the SW which is possible...these things can dig into Northern Mexico or retrograde to the Baja region and sit. The baroclinic zone is mighty impressive should something get going and I wouldn't write off Chicago, Kirksville, Topeka areas to get something good...any further to the NW I just don't see it as the cold air will be so firmly entrenched and deflect precipitation. Nothing like splitting the uprights here and miss one to the NW and then to the SE...LOL. Goes that way a lot, but at least we got a biggie last year so I cannot complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Now we can officially call it winter when we bring out the local Earl Baker maps... http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LSX for reference, I'm 2 counties south of I-74 right along 57... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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