A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 12z NAM really leaves a ton of evergy behind by hr45 but with a super positive tilt, going to be a battle between the cold air leaking south and the SE ridge to see if it can be spun up or if it will just get pushed harmlessly east along the front. EDIT: i think this run will be a decent hit for areas just south, nice return flow and vort attempting to go neg tilt EDIT x2: full on storm brewing for the southern plains by hr66 with some signs of a decent WAA ramping up... OKC-STL special? EDIT x3: this run tries so hard to crank out a real storm EDIT x4: LAF crew gonna love this run, major snows EDIT x5: accumulating snows making a run at Chicago by the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 12z NAM drops 0.46" on VPZ between 78 and 84 with 2m temps of 33.4 and a <0C column from 950 all the way up. (By the way, are we posting about next week's waves in this thread, or the Dec 2011 obs? I'm guilty of doing both so far.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 12z NAM drops 0.46" on VPZ between 78 and 84 with 2m temps of 33.4 and a <0C column from 950 all the way up. (By the way, are we posting about next week's waves in this thread, or the Dec 2011 obs? I'm guilty of doing both so far.) Since the NAM is developing this so quickly i'm posting about it here but if for some wild chance it gains consensus, maybe a new thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Since the NAM is developing this so quickly i'm posting about it here but if for some wild chance it gains consensus, maybe a new thread. Sounds good. You're right that the LAF crew should be rejoicing, 0.85" down their way on the NAM and all snow. Ah, if only it weren't just one run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I can only imagine the excitement level in this forum when we can slow things down and get a real area of low pressure to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The differences between in the NAM and GFS in the next 42 hours are not what I would term subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Since the NAM is developing this so quickly i'm posting about it here but if for some wild chance it gains consensus, maybe a new thread. Ya def nice to wake up to but I'd wait to start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Looks like I picked the wrong time to come to Chi town. I leave on the 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Ya def nice to wake up to but I'd wait to start a thread. Agree, i think we're seeing some signs that something will develope from the cutoff, exactly what is way up in the air and something major this far NW is probably a longshot. If i'm going to talk myself into things...I'd note that the SREF have been coming slightly north with the semi-stalled front (although the mean is crushed by the ETA members) and the GFS has been a little overzealous with the cold air in the past and may be up to similar games (EDIT 12z slightly less aggressive with cold push but no major change). The Euro will be interesting as it had a little something developing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The GFS says La Crosse will see warning criteria snows while the latest NAM gives them nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The GFS says La Crosse will see warning criteria snows while the latest NAM gives them nothing. I have to admit i'm hoping for as warm of a solution as possible with this first piece, I know Baro mentioned a day or two back that he thought the cold air would win out and leak south but i'm not sold on that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I can certainly see why you would want the warm air to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 going to paste this over here for people who don't venture to the other subforum I am beginning to lose confidence in the ECMWF solution...which is farthest N. Besides the fact this system is a product of two cold frontal surges which tend to leak a bit farther S than progged, the guidance has been very slowly trending towards a strongly amplified E Pac ridge with a farther W cutoff low across the 4 corners. All in all, this results in a slower ejection of the wave and more time for the northern stream/arctic front to surge south. Fits the seasonal trend of deep troughs to tend more towards a positive tilt configuration...resulting in weaker cyclogenesis and more frontal wave setups. This system looks no different. Unfortunately the 0Z GFS possibly leaning towards the 12Z CMC would be a realistic scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 9z SREF has a snow band coming northeast at the end of the run, not like the NAM but more aggressive then the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 GFS looks cold in the extended. Could be real cold around here if we can lay down a snowpack in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 GFS is really agressive with the cold air push, possible given the EPO but not really supported by the other models as far as i can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 It's hard to NOT get excited over the 12z NAM...would be a major snowstorm, the H7 low is still sitting back over OK with big snow from sw MO to LAF, crazy baroclinic zone to ride and feed off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 GFS is really agressive with the cold air push, possible given the EPO but not really supported by the other models as far as i can tell. The differences in the cold air push are huge at this point, really hoping that the GFS is overdoing things..and by a lot. I know we've talked about the GFS cold bias in the past but Baroclinic's post has me thinking it might win out. It's hard to NOT get excited over the 12z NAM...would be a major snowstorm, the H7 low is still sitting back over OK with big snow from sw MO to LAF, crazy baroclinic zone to ride and feed off of. It was a monster run no doubt. The 12z Euro is going to be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 12z GFS pops an SLP over E TN at 96 (Tue at 12z), on the 0z the SLP didn't pop until 123 (Wed 12/7 3z...so Tue night). Therefore we get an SLP that, although extremely weak, helps push precip farther west. The change is evident in Ohio at 12z Tue. 0z: 12z: Of course I'm being optimistic, but I would call that a positive trend from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The 12z GFS pops an SLP over E TN at 96 (Tue at 12z), on the 0z the SLP didn't pop until 123 (Wed 12/7 3z...so Tue night). Therefore we get an SLP that, although extremely weak, helps push precip farther west. The change is evident in Ohio at 12z Tue. 0z: 12z: Of course I'm being optimistic, but I would call that a positive trend from the GFS. It still pours in the cold air really killing the chance for anything of note to get going. The ensembles might help tell if it's a minor step in the right direction, IIRC the 0z ensembles had quite a few that were warmer/north with the stalled front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitizedmind75 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 The differences in the cold air push are huge at this point, really hoping that the GFS is overdoing things..and by a lot. I know we've talked about the GFS cold bias in the past but Baroclinic's post has me thinking it might win out. It was a monster run no doubt. The 12z Euro is going to be huge. I personally feel the cold air will not press as much as the GFS is hinting at. The front will stall farther West and the energy being kicked out will initiate cyclogenis rather quickly. I have a feeling it is going to be a hooker, bringing snow from Texas up to Detroit. The cold air will dump in and press further East after the storm next week. But once again, this is my "personal bias" mixed with observing the weather for years like everyone. My gut just tells me the GFS is too far East on this one. The setup is going to be this weekend's storm and if it plays out right, it will be the weaker of the two... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Is the stereotypical GFS suppression bias with EC storms also applicable in the OV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The ensemble mean looks a bit better, though I don't have time to look at the specifics right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 The ensemble mean looks a bit better, though I don't have time to look at the specifics right now. Def looks like a baby step in the right direction. EDIT: as for a supression bias, it does come up but seasonal trends have been towards positive tilt crap so it has that on it's side. This is a decent comparison between the 0z and 12z mean 850 temps. Heights are def higher to the east on 12z, the gradient is tighter and there is impressive cold over the northern lakes. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Def looks like a baby step in the right direction. EDIT: as for a supression bias, it does come up but seasonal trends have been towards positive tilt crap so it has that on it's side. This is a decent comparison between the 0z and 12z mean 850 temps. Heights are def higher to the east on 12z, the gradient is tighter and there is impressive cold over the northern lakes. 0z 12z Looks like a tighter baroclinic zone to my naked eye. Probably the reason why we get cyclogenesis slightly sooner. Well, I'm excited at least. Now to wait for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Looks like a tighter baroclinic zone to my naked eye. Probably the reason why we get cyclogenesis slightly sooner. Well, I'm excited at least. Now to wait for the Euro. I'm caustiously optimistic that up to north-central Indiana sees some snow from this. NW Indiana and Chicago have some ground to make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well, for what it is worth, which isn't much, I just don't see this second wave going that far east. While everything is showing the cold pouring in early next week, It won't be as big of a push as models are showing. There is no snowcover on the ground in most of wisconsin as well as minn. Just my opinoin which like I said isn't based on a whole lot. It would follow the past week or so of temps. We have been consistantly forcasted for cooler temps than what is actually realized. Yesterday for example was supposed to top out at 37. We ended up around 42 I believe. We'll see what happens, but im betting it gets much closer to Chi than what it looks like right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitizedmind75 Posted December 2, 2011 Author Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well, for what it is worth, which isn't much, I just don't see this second wave going that far east. While everything is showing the cold pouring in early next week, It won't be as big of a push as models are showing. There is no snowcover on the ground in most of wisconsin as well as minn. Just my opinoin which like I said isn't based on a whole lot. It would follow the past week or so of temps. We have been consistantly forcasted for cooler temps than what is actually realized. Yesterday for example was supposed to top out at 37. We ended up around 42 I believe. We'll see what happens, but im betting it gets much closer to Chi than what it looks like right now. Exactly what I am thinking, too much of a East bias, especially with no snow cover and the cold air pool doesn't appear to be strong enough to push that far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 12z LSX WRF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well, for what it is worth, which isn't much, I just don't see this second wave going that far east. While everything is showing the cold pouring in early next week, It won't be as big of a push as models are showing. There is no snowcover on the ground in most of wisconsin as well as minn. Just my opinoin which like I said isn't based on a whole lot. It would follow the past week or so of temps. We have been consistantly forcasted for cooler temps than what is actually realized. Yesterday for example was supposed to top out at 37. We ended up around 42 I believe. We'll see what happens, but im betting it gets much closer to Chi than what it looks like right now. I agree in general, but here we lucked out with a couple days being colder than expected due to cloud cover. Monday did not get to 40 despite predictions of such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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