A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Is it too early/a jinx to start a separate thread for the Dec 6th possible threat farther south? This thread is starting to get confusing talking about both inter-mixed. i think so, no really seeing much there besides an outside shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 12z GFS soooo close to perking my attention, but the 540 thickness stays just to my NW until the very end of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 GFS and NAM are worlds apart.. So is the Euro for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 NAM and Euro appear to be locked into a snow band through nw Iowa, while the last few GFS runs are showing sw to ne Iowa. I will get a decent rain either way, but the GFS might drop an inch or two of snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Hawk- That is my thinking for here, but everything of course could shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Hawk- That is my thinking for here, but everything of course could shift. I think you have the potential for 3-5 inches; you're closer to the band of solid snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 It seems as though it is the NAM and Euro in one camp while the GFS and Canadian are in the other. Will one side win or will the result be somewhere in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 I think you have the potential for 3-5 inches; you're closer to the band of solid snow. Looks like the 12Z GFS lays the 0°C line right through Milwaukee. With the GFS and GEM staying further south, parts of southern Wisconsin could get in on this as well! I expect more model shuffling in both directions in the next 36 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Looks like the 12Z GFS lays the 0°C line right through Milwaukee. With the GFS and GEM staying further south, parts of southern Wisconsin could get in on this as well! I expect more model shuffling in both directions in the next 36 hours though. Like Hawkeye, I'm thinking best case scenario is an inch or two on the backside, which I'll gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Like Hawkeye, I'm thinking best case scenario is an inch or two on the backside, which I'll gladly take. Looking more and more likely for at least a few inches here on the backside, hopefully more. Of course, I've only had time to look at the 850 maps so there could be some issues at the other levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 Looking more and more likely for at least a few inches here on the backside, hopefully more. Of course, I've only had time to look at the 850 maps so there could be some issues at the other levels. Yeah, you could see more like 3 inches or so. The further north or west you go from the city, the better off you'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 when have we ever got a few inches of back-end snow.. Nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 The Euro sticking to its guns. If anything it went further north with the snow shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 NWS La Crosse is going to have a tough forecast. If the Euro verifies the western half of there area gets hit pretty darn hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 when have we ever got a few inches of back-end snow.. Nothing to see here. "Sigh"...Isn't this the exact thing that happened last year in the fall and spring? Everything went north or south...Little lows riding the northern Jet and lows riding the southern jet, with Milwaukee, Muskegon, Grand Rapids, etc....in between with nothing....This must be common for La Nina's. Don't worry, I'm yawning over here on this side of the lake too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 "Sigh"...Isn't this the exact thing that happened last year in the fall and spring? Everything went north or south...Little lows riding the northern Jet and lows riding the southern jet, with Milwaukee, Muskegon, Grand Rapids, etc....in between with nothing....This must be common for La Nina's. Don't worry, I'm yawning over here on this side of the lake too. Right now it seems like this month is getting off to a familiar start. Time will tell if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 when have we ever got a few inches of back-end snow.. Nothing to see here. I'm certainly not expecting it. I said I'd be happy with one or two, but perhaps Waukesha is far enough inland and cold enough they could get a couple tree inches of the white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 "Sigh"...Isn't this the exact thing that happened last year in the fall and spring? Everything went north or south...Little lows riding the northern Jet and lows riding the southern jet, with Milwaukee, Muskegon, Grand Rapids, etc....in between with nothing....This must be common for La Nina's. Don't worry, I'm yawning over here on this side of the lake too. That certainly appears to be the trend so far this year, but I suppose in the past the opposite has been true occasionally: see "2007-08". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 2007-2008 winter was a little slow to get going. I remember some areas in NE Waukesha county had 115"+ of snow! That county is higher in elevation, which helps with orographic lift during lake effect snow - especially over the Kettle Moraine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 2007-2008 winter was a little slow to get going. I remember some areas in NE Waukesha county had 115"+ of snow! That county is higher in elevation, which helps with orographic lift during lake effect snow - especially over the Kettle Moraine. Then you also had West Allis, which recorded over 120 inches. I think there were probably some measuring discrepancies, especially with so many 4-12" snow events, some of which were compounded by blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2011 Share Posted December 1, 2011 No chance for snow this weekend imby. My focus will be on any waves next week that develop along the front. Not sure if this thread encompasses that potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I know DLL has been downplaying this potential all along, but he might have a good shot at getting in the 4-6" (probably the highest amounts) band. Right now the 18z GFS bullseyes him, and HPC just squeezes him in its 40% probability of seeing 4" or more on Day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 84 NAM providing some weenie hope that something gets going from the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 84 NAM providing some weenie hope that something gets going from the cutoff Most of the 0z GEFS seem to like a wave riding up the front, some early like the NAM, some later around 120 or so hours. Wait and see mode. Hopefully something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Most of the 0z GEFS seem to like a wave riding up the front, some early like the NAM, some later around 120 or so hours. Wait and see mode. Hopefully something to track. wait and see mode indeed, hard to see how anything gets pulled this far north after the front passes but I can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 wait and see mode indeed, hard to see how anything gets pulled this far north after the front passes but I can hope Hope is all you/we got. But really, the SE ridge does look to be a player. Let's see if it can slow the front enough to get a disturbance to round the bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 NAM shows about 2 inches for here... GFS shows 4 inches... I'm sticking with 1 to 3 inches... Sure looks like it could pile up SW of here across NE Iowa. NAM is going nuts with totals down there. Mason City area up to a foot?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Hope is all you/we got. But really, the SE ridge does look to be a player. Let's see if it can slow the front enough to get a disturbance to round the bend. Agree. The SE ridge it's clearly playing a role or we wouldn't even be having this discussion, return flow on the NAM looks pretty good, if only we can get something besides the long range NAM to get more aggressive with the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 DLL if the NAM is correct you are really going to be riding the edge. Lots of moisture though on the NAM. If something between the NAM and the GFS verifies you will recieve a pretty nice dumping it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.