Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I'm not really sure what to think about this system. The Euro and GEM have remained pretty consistent over the last few days. The GFS seems to be coming around to the Euro/GEM, and has adjusted a bit NW with the 18z. Think we'll see a few more adjustments NW on future GFS runs. Still looks like Omaha to Green Bay are the best locations to pick up some snow. As Alek noted earlier, that makes sense based on typical early Dec climo with SW flow storm systems. What could really change things though is how strong the southern vort ends up being. Right now most of the models really show it crapping the bed as it ejects out across the Plains. Of course, if it ends up being stronger it would probably pull further NW and be more of a threat to the Dakotas and Minnesota. also will have to watch where the southern wave is when it ejects out IF the phasing occurs and where the location of the baroclinic zone is at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 also will have to watch where the southern wave is when it ejects out IF the phasing occurs and where the location of the baroclinic zone is at that time. I know these panhandle storms like to ride the baroclinic boundaries in. The Dec. 10-11, 2000 storm was a strong system of similar setup. I remember it was a bit colder before it came into the Midwest though - what a storm it was though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I know these panhandle storms like to ride the baroclinic boundaries in. The Dec. 10-11, 2000 storm was a strong system of similar setup. I remember it was a bit colder before it came into the Midwest though - what a storm it was though! completely different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 completely different.. Doh! I must be thinking a different storm then!... Maybe that was a Colorado Low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I know these panhandle storms like to ride the baroclinic boundaries in. The Dec. 10-11, 2000 storm was a strong system of similar setup. I remember it was a bit colder before it came into the Midwest though - what a storm it was though! Yeah, highs were in the 20s for much of the week prior; this week some of the days the highs will be in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Verbatim on the latest runs, it looks like the low position, even on the most robust model, tracks a little too far north to keep the mix out of the QCA. It looks like it would be hard to keep the warm air aloft from being thrown back to DVN, but then again that is a pretty typical scenario especially early in the season (i.e. December '09 blizzard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 0z NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 bold I'll be in Chi town this weekend Could I see my first snow of the season!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 NAM has the look of a western/upper MW snow system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 00z GFS continues to trend towards the Euro. Seems reasonable as explained earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The set-up is highly variable and will remain so until Thursday due to no sampling...but I gotta think the trend on this would be for the left turn signal to light up. I don't think this will be a major threat for areas Southeast of say a Des Moines-Rochester MN-Stevens Point WI line. This will likely yank up a good strong warm draw aloft and then precipitate that warmer air (relatively speaking) right down to the surface....perhaps a few bursts of light snow on the tail end. But, this is very very early until sampling occurs. As always will watch the trends right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Always watch Terry Swails, if he jumps the gun to early on a storm its a bad sign for the Quad Cities. LOL. I honestly don't care much what he says since I can look at the same info. and draw my own conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 The NAM/GFS are getting closer to the same idea but still differ somewhat. The NAM has a much more nuetral tilt to the trof one they phase and also further east with the trof axis causing the southern stream wave to be further east in north TX before it ejects quickly northeastward. The GFS has a more positive tilt to the trof and further west with the southern wave located in NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 850 line sits just SE of that .5"+ area for most of the storm per the 0z GFS. Jury is still out on this one, although my instinct tells me the current Euro solution is probably the most accurate. Here's hoping for some back-end snow in Waukesha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Always watch Terry Swails, if he jumps the gun to early on a storm its a bad sign for the Quad Cities. LOL. I honestly don't care much what he says since I can look at the same info. and draw my own conclusions. Yeah I thought he seemed a little too excited last night when he was on air. I always like his enthusiasm at least lol. IMO Neil Kastor was one of the better on-camera mets the QCA has ever had. Good forecaster and was good at keeping things low key. Of course, Ryan Burchette was pretty good too. The NAM/GFS are getting closer to the same idea but still differ somewhat. The NAM has a much more nuetral tilt to the trof one they phase and also further east with the trof axis causing the southern stream wave to be further east in north TX before it ejects quickly northeastward. The GFS has a more positive tilt to the trof and further west with the southern wave located in NM. Love these GIFs you do. Really illustrates the differences between the two. Definitely some big disagreement with the energy up in western Canada, and out over the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 850 line sits just SE of that .5"+ area for most of the storm per the 0z GFS. Jury is still out on this one, although my instinct tells me the current Euro solution is probably the most accurate. Here's hoping for some back-end snow in Waukesha! I couldn't have said it better myself. Too bad the better moisture doesn't translate east. Par for the course this year. We get an active month like this November and precip is still average. When we do get precip it has generally been a cold rain this fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I had a pretty good professional relationship with Neil Kastor Cyclone.... he was in his last years as an OCM and I was just starting out. I had many a conversation with him about the aspects of the profession and where he saw it going etc... really respected his opinion. And yes, he never showed excitement over anything....just laid out the possibilities and gave his best call based on the information he had. He was pretty darn accurate most of the time too. He wasn't a big fan of using the automated system WQAD went to years ago that drew the maps for him basically, he loved to analyze and draw up his own ideas, but the program they went to took that away from him and he lost some of that enthusiasm. Anyways, back to the system. I just get the sense this could still go either way but until we get correct sampling these models will be all over the place with this thing...thus the differences still with how the shortwaves, phasing, and movement occur. There is the possibility this could be a good snow for many here but I'm taking the warmer, further left solution the ECM/Euro seem to favor at this point. If that cold air though in Canada tries to make a stronger push though that could throw some very interesting developments into this system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I know Alek mentioned this earlier today but with such tight and juicy baroclinic zone and pretty healthy wave moving over it, I also agree that cyclogenesis is being underdone by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I know Alek mentioned this earlier today but with such tight and juicy baroclinic zone and pretty healthy wave moving over it, I also agree that cyclogenesis is being underdone by the models. I see on your blog you had this storm pegged over a week ago. It's even nice the models still have a significant storm for someone in the Upper Midwest/W Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I see on your blog you had this storm pegged over a week ago. It's even nice the models still have a significant storm for someone in the Upper Midwest/W Great Lakes. no no I didn't have it pegged ha, that was just a Euro control run of its ensemble members showing "a" storm for this timeframe but we have a different type of setup. And i thought id just make a loop of it cause it was showing a MAJOR snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is about my luck. I am in Connecticut and we are discussing storm possibility. Its in the mid-50's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS vs NAM... 6 inches or zip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 This is about my luck. I am in Connecticut and we are discussing storm possibility. Its in the mid-50's here. I have no idea where Cortland is but snow prospects in Illinois are low with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 GFS vs NAM... 6 inches or zip... Which shows zip for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 NAM keeps it north...more of a Rochester to Eau Claire line of heavier snows ... GFS shows something similar, but heavier amounts further to the south... Still a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I don't think the NAM will be backing off, keep watching for the GFS to shift west. 12z NAM going to be super amped, really cranking up those 500 mb heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Take that back...NAM is only out to 84hrs, while GFS is out to 120... Still not far enough out to pick up the later storm....oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 the 12z NAM is going big, gonna be a major snowstorm for the plains. Mixing issues knocking on the door of MN. Torching in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 Looks like a nice storm for the central Plains, IA, MN, and WI. 12z GFS stalls the front after the storm and just floods the area just south of the Ohio River. Copious amounts of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 I have no idea where Cortland is but snow prospects in Illinois are low with this one. Yeah, gathering that one in the last day or so... Still enjoy the excitement. FYI, Cortland is 1 mile East of Dekalb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.