Thundersnow12 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 too early to get too cute with track and whether or not we have a legit storm is in quesiton but if one does materialize it sure looks like the baroclinic zone will be too far west for many in this sub-region. its a juicy one thats for sure but NAM and GFS are worlds apart. The NAM gives Omaha on good thumping, 20 degree 850mb temp gradient from IL to western NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 GFS looks like its going to say no go for this storm. its a tad better run and attempts to phase but the ejecting wave into the southern plains gets suppressed as it moves east (nice snow event for parts of TX/OK) with overrunning snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Don't have much time to follow this one yet, but i'll be watching from afar. Thanks for the model shots. EDIT: Early guess for a place to watch based on climo and early h5/850 maps would be Nebraska/Iowa up through Minny and into Northern Wisonsin. HPC prefers the Euro/GEM/UKMET for this storm. Only the GFS has been going consistently away from a winter weather event in the middle of the country in the last couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Looks like the GEM is going to phase again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Looks like the GEM is going to phase again. Yeah it looks like a decent hit from Iowa/Minnesota into Wisconsin. Looks like it hangs some energy back in the SW. If that whole thing were to eject it could end up being a huge storm, but it looks like that won't happen at this point. It'll be interesting to see what happens with that secondary wave next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I've been starting to squawk about this on the main board in the MR thread... hopefully some other red taggers will jump into the discussion there. Feel free to jump in, if you'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Holding out hope that the models are holding back energy as it seems as they do at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 HPC prefers the Euro/GEM/UKMET for this storm. Only the GFS has been going consistently away from a winter weather event in the middle of the country in the last couple runs. I'm going to side with the EE rule and assume there will be a storm of some sort until if or when something breaks. Given the relatively open flow out of the gulf and modest cold air connection, the baro zone should be ripe for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Holding out hope that the models are holding back energy as it seems as they do at times. your location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Saint Charles Minnesota- 20 miles east of rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Saint Charles Minnesota- 20 miles east of rochester. Thanks, you should add it to your profile. I'm liking your location about as much as any at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Euro continues with pretty much the same idea its previous two runs had. A nice winter storm from C Iowa toward Prairie du Chien NE to GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Euro continues with pretty much the same idea its previous two runs had. A nice winter storm from C Iowa toward Prairie du Chien NE to GRB. Yep, shows a nice hit from Omah to LaCrosse up to Green Bay. Man I'm loving the Euro on the Wundermaps this year. Gonna be very handy all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 its a tad better run and attempts to phase but the ejecting wave into the southern plains gets suppressed as it moves east (nice snow event for parts of TX/OK) with overrunning snow up here. The ensembles are still all over the map but most have something in play, it's not like they're in hyper supression mode. I think the GFS will slowly come around to a more Euro like scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yep, shows a nice hit from Omah to LaCrosse up to Green Bay. Man I'm loving the Euro on the Wundermaps this year. Gonna be very handy all winter long. Same here, those wundermaps are going to be dangerous this year, but given it's the Euro, they are less likely to be weenie fodder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Looks like 18z GFS is sticking with the idea from the 12z run. I'm liking being between the GFS and Euro solutions atm. GFS perhaps playing to its bias. One of the big questions will be does the Euro maintain its consistency from the last four runs? I could see it happening, given its consistency with a couple of the storms last year, but I'm guessing not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 One variable to watch with this system will be how much snow falls with the current system, because after this current system temps should stay below to near normal until this next system. This could stall the baroclinic zone a bit further South and East than it's current projection. I think there is certainly as good of chance that Chicago and Milwaukee could get in on this system as there is. Something to keep an eye on as we go forth past Wednesday. Edit: 18z GFS actually does come in further south with the track of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nice warm front shooting up behind the cutoff. There really is no baroclinic zone with this. It depends on trough axis and phasing. Something none of the models know right now. Eventually there is a warm front that does move northward but this isn't for at least 3 1/2 days especially East of Chicago and depending on which model you go by, NAM makes it further north but GFS/EURO does not. Also the GFS/EURO brings in a second cold front between the current system and this system. Also considering this is at the tail end of the NAM's time range for the beginning of this system I would tend to take the NAM for not much weight, especially considering how much it has fluctuated both in location/thermodynamic profile with the current system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Some nice jet coupling this weekend on the new GFS. Potential with this system looks very nice. H5 H3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 The 0z GFS comes in with a better phase and overall a better system with a good swath of snow from the southern plains to MI, would be a solid advisory level snowfall here. I'm taking full responsibility for jinxing it in the right direction after giving our talk tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 New GEM looks pretty similar to the previous GEM runs, and also similar to the 12z Euro. Still looks like a nice hit from Omaha to Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 0z Euro looking better already through 96hr...northern stream wave further south over ID/MT and already starting to phase with the southern wave which has a nice nuetral tilt to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Wow...102hr of the Euro looks like the GHD 500mb pattern lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 One variable to watch with this system will be how much snow falls with the current system, because after this current system temps should stay below to near normal until this next system. This could stall the baroclinic zone a bit further South and East than it's current projection. I think there is certainly as good of chance that Chicago and Milwaukee could get in on this system as there is. Something to keep an eye on as we go forth past Wednesday. Edit: 18z GFS actually does come in further south with the track of this system. Yeah this one looks more hopeful for this area. I've seen many snowstorms where they move up a stalled boundary south of Chicago. The air mass to the north will be plenty cold enough this time around. The boundaries like to stall out by I-80 or a bit further south. The snowstorms from the southwest are the best ones for this area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Wow...102hr of the Euro looks like the GHD 500mb pattern lol Kind of funny, given what your talk was on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Looks like consensus is growing on a modest to potentially major storm for the central part of the country. For my immediate area, I'm thinking that once you get much east of the QC-RFD-MKE line, chances for snow over liquid decrease pretty rapidly, reasoning to follow. -Spacing and return between systems is large, the gulf is open and there will be little in the way of a proper cold dry NE flow...to me this screams watch for future northwest shifts and a stronger storm. -No disrespect to stebo, but i'm totally disregarding any potential role the swath of snow in N. IN and MI will play in establishing the baroclinic zone with this one. When it comes to snowpack playing a real role in storm track, I look for expansive relatively deep snowpack. If large portions of the northern plains and lakes were blanketed, I'd be much more willing to entertain the idea...a 50-100 mile swath of slush naso much. -Contrary to some of the panic and winter canceling around here, it's still early season and climo favors a track further west. -Lakeside counties, including those into WI are going to face problems with any kind of onshore flow and marginal temp situation. Obv. we're a long ways out so usual disclaimers apply. Still favoring the same general area as yesterday for potential major snows, E. NE, MN into N-C WI and the UP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Looks like consensus is growing on a modest to potentially major storm for the central part of the country. For my immediate area, I'm thinking that once you get much east of the QC-RFD-MKE line, chances for snow over liquid decrease pretty rapidly, reasoning to follow. -Spacing and return between systems is large, the gulf is open and there will be little in the way of a proper cold dry NE flow...to me this screams watch for future northwest shifts and a stronger storm. -No disrespect to stebo, but i'm totally disregarding any potential role the swath of snow in N. IN and MI will play in establishing the baroclinic zone with this one. When it comes to snowpack playing a real role in storm track, I look for expansive relatively deep snowpack. If large portions of the northern plains and lakes were blanketed, I'd be much more willing to entertain the idea...a 50-100 mile swath of slush naso much. -Contrary to some of the panic and winter canceling around here, it's still early season and climo favors a track further west. -Lakeside counties, including those into WI are going to face problems with any kind of onshore flow and marginal temp situation. Obv. we're a long ways out so usual disclaimers apply. Still favoring the same general area as yesterday for potential major snows, E. NE, MN into N-C WI and the UP. I would agree. This has La Crosse-MSP to GRB special written all over it. I'm sure Bow would agree as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I would agree. This has La Crosse-MSP to GRB special written all over it. I'm sure Bow would agree as well. The otherside of the coin is a partial ejecting and draw out positive tilt trough, this could bring light to moderate snows to areas further east...but I still like the potential for something a little more explosive. The potential is obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 JD is definitely siding with the Euro (and HBY); not a surprise given the Euro's track record and climo: 5-10 DAY FORECAST:Things still look a little more encouraging as we head through the weekend and the first half of next week. An area of low pressure will get organized in the southern Plains Saturday and then track up into the Great Lakes by Sunday. It is still a little early in the game to be putting a lot of faith into the details with this event, but at this point, there are indications that a pretty solid 4-8" of snow could fall across NW IA, SE MN, NW and north central WI as well as into most of the UP, with rains falling elsewhere. The storm could then be followed by some moderate LES in the UP Sunday and then as we head through the first half of next week, a couple of clipper systems still look to drop in out of Canada and each look to bring some light (1-3") snows to the Northwoods. The clippers also hold the potential to bring some heavy lake effect snows to the UP. It’s way too early to say who will get what, but there are ideas that some double digit accumulations could occur in some of the UP LES belts Monday into Tuesday next week. Temps over the weekend will be running close to average in most of the region and then look to drop to below average for the first half of next week. Highs in the Northwoods by next week look to be running in the low to mid 20’s, with lows in the single digits and teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Looks like the 12z GFS is gonna be weaker and southeast again. It has shown no consistency with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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