digitizedmind75 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Hello everyone, long time weather hobbyist and first time poster to these forums. I was curious as to what some of the models and NWS offices are looking at for later next weekend, in terms of a potential snow event/storm in the works. The 11/27/11 GFS and Euro 0z runs both show this happening, which gives me some confidence when the GFS and Euro agree on something. There are some timing and placement differences, but overall they both forecast the event. What are everyone's opinions on this? I am not worried about a late start to Winter in my area (ILX KPIA), but would love to see the white stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 6z GFS doesn't have it at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Looks like a weak clipper and resultant frontal passage on the 0z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitizedmind75 Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 6z GFS doesn't have it at all.. I unfortunately seen that as well, but I am waiting for the 12z runs to finish. Its funny that the GFS was showing this system 2 days ago as well, then backed off, before showing it on the 0z run again. The 6z runs shows nothing, so I am suspecting that it will rear its head again on the GFS in later runs. If the 12z Euro run shows this still, I will continue to have confidence. Isn't it the consensus among most, that the Euro is looked at as the more accurate model during the Winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 6z GFS doesn't have it at all.. I think (hope) that's a blip. Euro and DGEX have it. As you know, it is frequent that the GFS loses a storm in the medium range only to bring it back, so I'll be keeping a close eye on other guidance to ensure that they still have the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitizedmind75 Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Looks like a weak clipper and resultant frontal passage on the 0z Euro... The 0z ECM snowfall map on wunderground shows what could amount to a 2" - 4" inch snowfall in the Western parts of the region. I would be happy with that for sure. Guess its a waiting game to see what the 12z Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The 0z ECM snowfall map on wunderground shows what could amount to a 2" - 4" inch snowfall in the Western parts of the region. I would be happy with that for sure. Guess its a waiting game to see what the 12z Euro shows. Yeah, gotcha. I was expecting a "big storm" when I saw the thread, no offense. But the 0z Euro definitely would lay down some snow for a few. Have to start somewhere. Long ways out though, relatively speaking of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitizedmind75 Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Yeah, gotcha. I was expecting a "big storm" when I saw the thread, no offense. But the 0z Euro definitely would lay down some snow for a few. Have to start somewhere. Long ways out though, relatively speaking of course... No offense taken and it still may end up being something "big" in the end. Your right though, need to start somewhere and at this point I will take whatever snow mother nature gives! I am just happy that the possibilities are there now and an early Winter pattern seems to be settling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 DVN mentions there is some potential with this system. THE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER POTENTIALLY PHASED TO PARTIALLY PHASED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING UP INTO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THERE IT POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A SNOW OR RAIN SNOW EVENT. ..ERVIN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 DVN mentions there is some potential with this system. THE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER POTENTIALLY PHASED TO PARTIALLY PHASED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE WAVE MOVING UP INTO THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THERE IT POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A SNOW OR RAIN SNOW EVENT. ..ERVIN.. The 0z GFS was def a high end advisory event across the area. The 12z NAM looks alot more interesting with the wave dropping southeast across the western US/Rockies at 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The 0z GFS was def a high end advisory event across the area. The 12z NAM looks alot more interesting with the wave dropping southeast across the western US/Rockies at 84hr. At 144hr the 12z GEM looks like it's about to eject a decent storm out of the southern Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 At 144hr the 12z GEM looks like it's about to eject a decent storm out of the southern Rockies. The 12z Euro looks better then the 0z run too, high end advisory event from KS/NE border the central WI but the sfc wave weakens as it pushes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The 12z GFS ensembles are all over the place with this thing. I guess that's to be expected though at 150+hrs out. There's definitely some potential though, just a matter of if we can get everything timed right for a decent phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitizedmind75 Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 The 12z Euro looks better then the 0z run too, high end advisory event from KS/NE border the central WI but the sfc wave weakens as it pushes east. The 12z Euro definitely has the main snowfall track a bit further west at 168 hours then the previous 0z run. This definitely should be worth watching. The amount of phasing and cold air will help determine the final track, but I am hoping it moves back East some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 12z GEM does eject a decent wave out of the SW after 150hrs. Not a huge system, but respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Have to like the look of the 18z NAM at 84hr, impressive wave dropping into the four corners region with lots of cold air dumping into the plains causing the baroclinic zone to tighthen with the area of look pressure developing around the OK/TX panhandle region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The 18z GFS is now on board with this threat. Threat from C and NE Iowa into Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 This one is loaded with potential... All the major players are there its just the matter how they behave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 0z NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 0z NAM.. That's a pretty huge difference compared to the global models. It looks like that s/w is ready to eject. No sign of retrogression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That's a pretty huge difference compared to the global models. It looks like that s/w is ready to eject. No sign of retrogression. nope, and its not showing any serious WAA problems. When you loop the 850mb temps the last 18hrs of the run, the 0 and 3 deg isotherm don't really move north at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 nope, and its not showing any serious WAA problems. When you loop the 850mb temps the last 18hrs of the run, the 0 and 3 deg isotherm don't really move north at all. I think that if the NAM were extrapolated beyond 84hrs it would cut the s/w off based on what I'm seeing JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 This could be the first real interesting one of the season....The GFS has been showing it off and on the past couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Someone can correct me if i'm wrong, but it appears the 0z GFS just misses on a phase and therefore there's not much of a storm on this run. It does have a clipper move through the upper MW and northern GL areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 0z GEM at 144hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digitizedmind75 Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 The 0z Euro at 150 hours has a nice storm for Central Iowa up into Central Wisconsin and then the UP of Michigan. It also appears to be slowing the timing of the system down just a tad from previous runs, coming closer in agreement with the GFS, which shows a Monday hit in these areas (when it shows anything at all). Waiting for the final hours to complete before hitting the sack for the night. Question, and this is from somewhat of a newbie, but what are some of the main factors that determine if and when the Northern stream and Southern stream waves, phase? Would it seem that the models trending towards a phasing further West or further East? Thanks for the insight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Don't have much time to follow this one yet, but i'll be watching from afar. Thanks for the model shots. EDIT: Early guess for a place to watch based on climo and early h5/850 maps would be Nebraska/Iowa up through Minny and into Northern Wisonsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Don't have much time to follow this one yet, but i'll be watching from afar. Thanks for the model shots. EDIT: Early guess for a place to watch based on climo and early h5/850 maps would be Nebraska/Iowa up through Minny and into Northern Wisonsin. I would agree but would place it more SC and NE Iowa up through C Wisconsin (with the lake areas getting mostly rain). This always seems to be the MO of early/mid December winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I would agree but would place it more SC and NE Iowa up through C Wisconsin (with the lake areas getting mostly rain). This always seems to be the MO of early/mid December winter storms. too early to get too cute with track and whether or not we have a legit storm is in quesiton but if one does materialize it sure looks like the baroclinic zone will be too far west for many in this sub-region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 GFS looks like its going to say no go for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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