Snowstorms Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 My Final Winter outlook is now out on my blog. Check it out guys. http://weatherintoro...orecast_26.html Any questions and comments will be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 My Final Winter outlook is now out on my blog. Check it out guys. http://weatherintoro...orecast_26.html Any questions and comments will be appreciated. Nice work: detailed and reasoned for my layman's eyes. You are forecasting a below-average December (temps) for the GL and southern Ontario yet the current warm pattern looks like it'll persist into December. What are your thoughts on how we get from where we are now to what you forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I liked it alot, a few things. 1) Using the word "bullsh*t" in a scientific presentation isn't something I'd do 2) What analog years are you using, or did you look at? What specific reasons did you base your heavy -NAO/neutral PNA predictions off of? 3) The above average snowfall over NE Canada during a heavy -NAO? good luck dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 I liked it alot, a few things. 1) Using the word "bullsh*t" in a scientific presentation isn't something I'd do 2) What analog years are you using, or did you look at? What specific reasons did you base your heavy -NAO/neutral PNA predictions off of? 3) The above average snowfall over NE Canada during a heavy -NAO? good luck dude Thanks! Haha. I'll try not too. Primary analogues include, 2007-08, 1975-76, 1964-65 and 1955-56 with secondaries as 2008-09, 1993-94, 1970-71 and 1917-18. I try not to focus on analogues when forecasting. I just use them as references. I expect the blocking to be centered across Southern and Eastern Greenland mostly this Winter which favors storms to track up thru the Davis Straight during an EB -NAO but with the NAO/AO staying mostly positive IMO for December I believe the front half will be loaded with alot of snow for NE Canada. ATM I dont see a huge -NAO/AO anomaly like the past two Winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Thanks! Haha. I'll try not too. Primary analogues include, 2007-08, 1975-76, 1964-65 and 1955-56 with secondaries as 2008-09, 1993-94, 1970-71 and 1917-18. I try not to focus on analogues when forecasting. I just use them as references. I expect the blocking to be centered across Southern and Eastern Greenland mostly this Winter which favors storms to track up thru the Davis Straight during an EB -NAO but with the NAO/AO staying mostly positive IMO for December I believe the front half will be loaded with alot of snow for NE Canada. ATM I dont see a huge -NAO/AO anomaly like the past two Winters. Sounds like an IMBY forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Nice work: detailed and reasoned for my layman's eyes. You are forecasting a below-average December (temps) for the GL and southern Ontario yet the current warm pattern looks like it'll persist into December. What are your thoughts on how we get from where we are now to what you forecast? December is a 50/50 call. I had a hard time deciding its possible outcome. The first half is just to quiet IMO with no sustained cold but the second half is still up in the air. I do think the second half will average better than the first half, perhaps a 93/04 repeat. If anything I think the warm anomalies should be further north for December IMO and the cold anomalies further north. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Thanks! Haha. I'll try not too. Primary analogues include, 2007-08, 1975-76, 1964-65 and 1955-56 with secondaries as 2008-09, 1993-94, 1970-71 and 1917-18. I try not to focus on analogues when forecasting. I just use them as references. I expect the blocking to be centered across Southern and Eastern Greenland mostly this Winter which favors storms to track up thru the Davis Straight during an EB -NAO but with the NAO/AO staying mostly positive IMO for December I believe the front half will be loaded with alot of snow for NE Canada. ATM I dont see a huge -NAO/AO anomaly like the past two Winters. Did you mean west based -NAO? Don't want to be a hardass but how can you be forecasting a moderate east based -NAO and get the DJF anomaly map you come to? I was hoping for a specific explanation as to why you see what you are seeing, but good luck anyway Something isn't clicking for me but that could be a result of my own mental lapse. Also if you don't mind, could you explain your analog choice a bit more specifically? Many thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Sounds like an IMBY forecast. And you base that on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 Did you mean west based -NAO? Don't want to be a hardass but how can you be forecasting a moderate east based -NAO and get the DJF anomaly map you come to? I was hoping for a specific explanation as to why you see what you are seeing, but good luck anyway Something isn't clicking for me but that could be a result of my own mental lapse. Also if you don't mind, could you explain your analog choice a bit more specifically? Many thanks. Low Solar Years suggested an East Based -NAO dominating than a West Based -NAO. Now I dont have any precipitation maps or seasonal monthly precip maps for NE Canada but I dont expect huge blocking this Winter which explains my above average snow anomaly across Baffin Island. 2007-08, because it has similar Global SST's/weather patterns with this year. The weather pattern over the next 2-3 weeks resembles Dec 2007 in many ways with limited blocking. 1975-76, a third year Nina but had a deeply negative PDO, similar Fall Weather pattern and a very warm November across the East which in a way continued into December. December 2007/1975 are very good analogues to use and perhaps 1993 as well. And I think you get the point. It would take me a while to explain all the analogues unless you want more info then PM me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I agree that the 2007-2008 analog would be good for this winter. AO, NAO, and PNA were positive more often then not. Lots of November warmth back here in the western Lakes, then a couple days after Thanksgiving the snows came. Lots of lows cut up into the central Great Lakes giving northern IL and southern Wisconsin near record seasonal snowfall tallies. Few warm ups during the winter, but we had close to 90 days of at least 1" of snow cover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 And you base that on what? You predict snowstorms hitting your backyard. Can you not figure that out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 My Final Winter outlook is now out on my blog. Check it out guys. http://weatherintoro...orecast_26.html Any questions and comments will be appreciated. Very nice discussion. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 You predict snowstorms hitting your backyard. Can you not figure that out? So nobody can ever predict cold or snow for their own region, even if they provide objective evidence to back it up, lest they be called an imbyer. Gotchya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 So nobody can ever predict cold or snow for their own region, even if they provide objective evidence to back it up, lest they be called an imbyer. Gotchya. That's what happens when you live in an area that averages 7" of snow per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 So nobody can ever predict cold or snow for their own region, even if they provide objective evidence to back it up, lest they be called an imbyer. Gotchya. It's just a bit suspect, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 It's just a bit suspect, that's all. My snowfall map says, snowfall greater than 2" and in some cases your average maybe around 3-6" so I'd say near normal amounts for your region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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