bluewave Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I'll start my list off in chronological order. 1) I can remember going to bed on 1-19-78 to a NOAA Weather Radio forecast for overnight rain. I was completely surprised to wake up the next morning to 13-17 inches of snow across the area when none was forecast. 2) Back in September of 1979, forecasters were expecting a weakening David to pass through our area like many tropical systems have done while moving over land to our west. The next morning here along the South Shore the winds were gusting 50-60 mph while we were put under a tornado watch. The intensification of the storm passing through our area was not forecast well by the models of the time. 3) On 1-22-87 the forecast in the morning was for snow to change to rain. Around midday the snow became heavy with several vivid lightning strikes. I can remember picking up 9-10 inches of snow by the late afternoon. 4) The 7-11 inches of snow after the heavy rains on Christmas 2002 took many by surprise. 5) The 9-16-10 tornado and macroburst showed how quickly a severe event can come together in our area. For my honorable mention, I will add the severity of the cold with the Christmas 1980 arctic blast. From my memory, I don't think that the forecasts of the time predicted that the temperatures would plunge so rapidly after midnight to -1 then stay in the single digits during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 March 3rd 1960...Snow was supposed to change to rain but stayed all snow...14-15" around the area... February 9th 1969...Snow was supposed to change to rain but didn't...15-20" fell... February 8th 1974...Predicted Snow flurries became 6" of snow... January 19-20th 1978...Snow was supposed to cahnge to rain but didn't until 14" fell... April 6th 1982...Unexpected blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 1) Definitely has to be 12/26/11 with the Boxing Day Blizzard. I was just taking a look at some of those previous posts, and it was quite comical reading some of those posts that were giving up on that storm, and the HPC labeling nearly every single GFS run with initialization errors. And then the models going OTS with this storm a few days before, only to come back with the blizzard on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. It seemed like the GFS and ECMWF kept on switching "camps" with the GFS showing the storm and then losing it, and when the GFS wasn't showing the storm, the ECMWF was showing the storm. This caught many Mets including Glenn Schwartz and Lee Goldberg way by surprise, and many people were surprised by this storm. 2) January 2008. I was younger and I wasn't really tracking weather patterns at this stage in time, but this storm in the middle of January was a very large dissapointment. It was two days out, and TWC said that there would be "significant" snow accumulations for the area two days. I was quite excited. Then I noticed that TWC kept on lowering their snow totals, until the day of the storm, they had 1-3" for that storm. The NWS had a Heavy Snow Warning for my area, so I still thought there would be a nice snow event here. Not a single flake fell out of that storm, and that was probably the most dissapointed I think I ever have been after a storm. 3) February 2008 It was the last snow event of the season, and many weather sources were calling for 2-5" for my area, and it started to snow late that night. I woke up, and most of the snow that had fallen that night had been washed away because of the rain that was coming down that no one predicted would fall. 4) 3/21/11 The day after the first day of spring brought a positive (not negative) surprise: Sleet. Not a single model except the GGEM had predicted the rain/snow line to be as far south as C NJ was. Later that morning, the sleet quickly turned over to a very wet snow, with humongous snowflakes falling. By 9:00 am the snow had turned back over to sleet/rain but it was a nice sight to witness in spring. The large snowflakes during the "height" of the snow at around 8:10 am. 5) This has to be the 3/23/11 snow. While the NAM and the GFS were hinting at a 2nd wave to come after the first wave, which wasn't supposed to give anyone snow, they suddenly backed off on the coastal storm (the 2nd wave) and I got minimal snow accumulation from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 April 6th 1982...Unexpected blizzard... The severity of the storm was surprising...but snow was in the forecast for the NYC area 36 hours in advance and the NWS did issue Blizzard Warnings for the area just before the storm got under way...or at least with their morning product...the first flakes came down in the wee hours of the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I think I can use March 2001 for number 1. The weather channel was calling for 2 to 3 feet of snow 60hrs prior. I think 2" of slop fell on the back end retrograde. On the flip side Dec 26 2011 had a chance a flurries 60hr prior that dumped 25" IMBY. 3, Jan 20 1979 forecast of snow rapidly changing to rain ended up with 18" 4, Jan 14 2006 flash freeze while my sons were being born. Wife hit labor at 1pm 68 f with drizzle , by the time kids were born 5 hours later it was 25 with wind swept snow. Family was delayed getting to hospital due to all the accedents on GSP. 5. Jan (I think) 1988. 12+ was forecast only to see a few flurries. That one became the true Atlantic city special as it received 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 3, Jan 20 1979 forecast of snow rapidly changing to rain ended up with 18" 5. Jan (I think) 1988. 12+ was forecast only to see a few flurries. That one became the true Atlantic city special as it received 18". Jan 20, 1978 February 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Jan 20, 1978 February 1989 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 In no particular order: 1. 10/15/09 - It was raining heavily. Then, at around 4 in the afternoon, it snowed heavily for 10 minutes, before changing back to rain. That's the earliest I've ever seen snow. 2. 1/14/08 - Forecasted to get 3-6 inches of snow, ended up getting a 30-minute period of wet snow. 3. 9/28/11 - Intense flash flooding from training thunderstorms. Streets were underwater that I've never seen even close to being underwater. 4. 3/16/07 - It was 70 degrees 2 days before, but we had 8+ inches of sticking snow/sleet this day. I knew it would snow but never thought it would stick so easily. 5. 10/29/11 - Self-explanatory. A SECS in October. What more is there to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 3) February 2008 It was the last snow event of the season, and many weather sources were calling for 2-5" for my area, and it started to snow late that night. I woke up, and most of the snow that had fallen that night had been washed away because of the rain that was coming down that no one predicted would fall. This storm overachieved for the area. I received 7 inches of snow. The snow never turned to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Nobody posted 1/25/00?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 January 19-20th 1978...Snow was supposed to cahnge to rain but didn't until 14" fell... That was the storm that caused the roof collapse at the Hartford Civic Center, IIRC. For most areas, the expected changeover either never occured, or occured much later than expected. For me, I'll name my Top 2... one good, and one bad... Feb. 83... We were on the northern edge of the sharp snowfall gradient, and were only forecasted to get 1-3". The northward progression, combined with the gravity wave that led to thundersnow, left me with 22". Oops. And then... there was The Date That Shall Not Be Mentioned... the fifth day of the third month of the new millenium... when Paul Kocin had me drooling with visions of 3 feet of snow, only to crush my dreams like a schoolboy's first crush being spurned... only after years of intense therapy can I even speak of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 1) 2011 Earthquake 2) January 27, 2011 morning wave that produced 5 inches before the main storm ever approached 3) Blizzard of 96. Was supposed to get 6-10 the night before, ended up with about 27 inches. 4) Model wise, 12/27 seing the gfs bring the storm back. The storm itself was just ok 5) October 29, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 This storm overachieved for the area. I received 7 inches of snow. The snow never turned to rain. I remember another minor clipper event on February 29-March 1 that I think he's referring to, not the February 22, 2008 event that you're thinking of. I also remember forecasts for a few inches but I only got like an inch and a half before it changed to rain, and when I woke up the following morning all the snow had been washed away. Depressing end to a depressing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I remember another minor clipper event on February 29-March 1 that I think he's referring to, not the February 22, 2008 event that you're thinking of. I also remember forecasts for a few inches but I only got like an inch and a half before it changed to rain, and when I woke up the following morning all the snow had been washed away. Depressing end to a depressing winter. I believe on February 12th of that year we got a few inches that afternoon and evening but it changed to rain at late night and it washed it all away by the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Bliizard of 96. IIRC, it was a slow starter, and at night my dad and I said, no big deal. Then ovn it was big. Woke up the next morn it had huge snow. We knew we were fooked for clearing the driveway. I remember driving around that night on the side roads with my ford ranger to let my dad know about the roads for his drive in the next day. The snow was up past my windows! It was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 12/25/02 - Unlike most forecasters I DID think we were going to see a period of snow, but never imagined we'd see amounts of 6-9 inches in many areas. 12/5/03 part 1 - Did not expect that we'd see much snow before around 5-7pm that Friday evening, but the high pressure system over SE Canada was much stronger than was expected and really filtered in alot of dry and colder air. 1/25/00 - I knew I wasn't crazy around 6pm that night when I was watching TWC and swore everything off the SC coast was moving straight north. 2/1989 - Surprised in a very bad way 1/6/94 - Couldn't believe we never changed over to rain, was amazed to wake up that Friday AM and find it was still 23 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 For my number one pattern change surprise I will add the epic January 1990 warm up after one of our coldest Decembers. I never expected it to warm up so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'm surprised anyone is surprised by the january '08 event...it was 43 and raining with no cold air anywhere. I would have been more surprised if we saw more than a sloppy inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I'm surprised anyone is surprised by the january '08 event...it was 43 and raining with no cold air anywhere. I would have been more surprised if we saw more than a sloppy inch or two The thing that told me there was NO WAY it was going to snow much that night was the fact that during the day it was in the 40's in Albany. Later on, they did not drop real quickly. I was saying that to everyone, "Where is the cold air going to come from?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Right and it's not like it was march or early december ..this was in the heart of winter ....besides that even when it finally did cool down most of the precip was through the area The thing that told me there was NO WAY it was going to snow much that night was the fact that during the day it was in the 40's in Albany. Later on, they did not drop real quickly. I was saying that to everyone, "Where is the cold air going to come from?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Right and it's not like it was march or early december ..this was in the heart of winter ....besides that even when it finally did cool down most of the precip was through the area Even in "dynamic cooling" events, you need a cold air source, however marginal it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 The thing that told me there was NO WAY it was going to snow much that night was the fact that during the day it was in the 40's in Albany. Later on, they did not drop real quickly. I was saying that to everyone, "Where is the cold air going to come from?" Right, and on top of that the models were lowering the snow amounts within 24 hours of the event. That was the night that someone deleted the whole NYC Metro OBS thread while everyone was trying to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Right, and on top of that the models were lowering the snow amounts within 24 hours of the event. That was the night that someone deleted the whole NYC Metro OBS thread while everyone was trying to post. There was a lot of criticism to the NWS, (I was among the criticizers), for not lowering the HSW that was in effect when it was painfully obvious to everyone that it wasn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 There was a lot of criticism to the NWS, (I was among the criticizers), for not lowering the HSW that was in effect when it was painfully obvious to everyone that it wasn't going to happen. Yeah, that was a tough break. At least we overperformed a bit on February 22nd so the winter wasn't a total write off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 On the other hand my biggest surprise snowstorm is probably the 2/26/10 Snowicane. Just so many things against it and to watch it unfold and happen pretty much as modeled was pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1. President's Day Snow 1978 2. Hurricane David Flooding 1979 3. Tornado in my yard in August 1979 4. PD II just because I had never seen snow that much IMBY 5. Snowmaggeden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 If Snowmaggeden is what I think it is we don't speak of that in these parts! :-) 1. President's Day Snow 1978 2. Hurricane David Flooding 1979 3. Tornado in my yard in August 1979 4. PD II just because I had never seen snow that much IMBY 5. Snowmaggeden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1. March 2001, biggest "dud" in history 2. Dec 26, 2010 Still can't get over those crazy snow bands+ the model mayhem 3. NYC tornadoes, incredibly rare as well as that microburst 4. 2006 Ernesto's "Very windy" remnants, gusts to 60-70 mph, parts of the Jersey Shore saw hurricane force gusts up to 80mph. 5. October 2011 snows- Despite the mild weather now, nothing will beat this historical and damaging early season snowstorm. Honorable Mentions Irene actually goes up the coast and hits NJ (originally classified as a hurricane in NJ, but most likely a TS though its still amazing). January 2000, another model mayhem type storm, Carolinas got their pay day February 2009, 3 storms, 1st a near miss (insane cutoff, barely got 6", 2nd a strong hit, 3rd, a decent hit (crazy retrograding storm was pure awesome to witness and rain in eastern NE while he were snowing hard) April 2007, incredibly deep low pressure (low 960s) and record rains March 2010, crazy wind and rain storm 60mph gusts once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Here are mine with no exact order 1. December 2003 snowstorm - snow was suppose change to rain or wintry mix but it stayed mostly snow and then Blizzard warning were issued where 12-18" has fallen 2. March 8, 2005- Rain change to unexpected wind driven snow with amazing wind and rapidly falling temps. The area received 2-4" 3. March 2010 Noreaster with damaging wind gust as high as 60 mph with flooding rains 4. September 16, 2010 with rare tornadoes and Macbrust affected NYC 5. Historic October snowfall mainly for NYC points NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted November 30, 2011 Share Posted November 30, 2011 1/28/1978, South Bend, IN. I went to bed that night with a forecast of 1-3". Stepped out my door at 7am for breakfast (one of the few times I intended to go to my 8am class), and the snow was knee deep. 35" all told....the storm to be renowned as the Cleveland Super Bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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