Better enjoy winter now...

[wisconsinwx]

In terms of paleoclimate a 1C rise in 100+ years is very, very fast. If that rate were to continue, and we have every reason to believe it will at a minimum, over the next century global temperatures would rise to 2C above what it was about the year 1880. That is a big deal.

Climate sensitivity estimates consistantly fall between 2C and 4.5C per doubling of CO2, which we will easily double sometime around mid century. So 2C is the least warming we should expect.

These are the kind of statements that I question. Only if you buy into AGW, which many well-known scientists/meteorologists do not (John Coleman, William Gray to name a couple) would you make that statement. Regardless, I too question how much of the Earth's warming is due to human activity.

I will add that many of these meteorologists and "climate experts" stand to gain money for their causes by overstating and overhyping AGW. This situation alone causes me to at least be skeptical. I will not say there is NO CHANCE that AGW is real, but I don't think it is likely, at least to the extent that most proponents of AGW say it is.

[tacoman25]

It's directly about Wisconsin / Lakes area so I posted it in the correlating subforum.

I would love more severe weather, so I'm excited for this too. Severe is much more fun than snow in my book. And, yes, 2008-2009 was cold, but the duration and quantity of days below 0 was still far diminished from cold winters past. The article indicates the cold extremes are relaxing. Watch the video, it shows detailed maps of what has been happening.

Over the last 4 winters, the cold has been winning out. And it's not even close nationally.

[tacoman25]

Uhhhh...........this reads like a Presbyterian telling us he is "saved"

None of us know whether that will happen

We "warmistas" (does this mean "scientists?") are MUCH MORE confident that the collective global warming will be substantial by 2100 at latest, and that it will get worse after that( to the vast detriment of posterity) if we don't do something about it pretty quickly

How this averages out IYBY is unknowable.

Not according to the article that started this thread.

[Jonger]

Over the last 4 winters, the cold has been winning out. And it's not even close nationally.

exactly.

All records are set by ridges and troughs in the jet.

Not CO2 in the atmosphere.

[ORH_wxman]

Over the last 4 winters, the cold has been winning out. And it's not even close nationally.

The decade of the 2000s winters was colder than the 1981-2010 mean which shows that it actually brought the mean down from the 1981-2000 mean.

As mentioned before, the multidecadal oscillations in the oceans dwarf any backround AGW signal for United States winters.

[Jonger]

The decade of the 2000s winters was colder than the 1981-2010 mean which shows that it actually brought the mean down from the 1981-2000 mean.

As mentioned before, the multidecadal oscillations in the oceans dwarf any backround AGW signal for United States winters.

Wouldn't that apply to any landmass?

[ORH_wxman]

Wouldn't that apply to any landmass?

No, not all landmasses are in same proximity to oceans.

[tacoman25]

The decade of the 2000s winters was colder than the 1981-2010 mean which shows that it actually brought the mean down from the 1981-2000 mean.

As mentioned before, the multidecadal oscillations in the oceans dwarf any backround AGW signal for United States winters.

Right. And my map was for 1971-2000, anyway. So it includes those brutal 1970s and 1980s winters referenced by the OP.

[michsnowfreak]

It will take much more than a 1C global warming to bring about a 30 day winter as the average condition in the upper mid-west. If by late this century global temp is another 1C-2C warmer than today what will be the average winter be like in the upper mid-west?

For example, if the average temperature in Detroit rises 2C (approx 3.6F) by the end of this century, average winter temperatures for Detroit in 2099 would STILL be 1-1.5F COLDER than average winter temperatures in 2010 Boston. So you can see....a 30-day winter in the upper midwest...not happening.

[superjames1992]

The premise of this thread is kind of ridiculous. Local variations in climate generally tend to trump global variations. A 1-4C rise in global temperatures may shorten the season some, but not dramatically and Milwaukee would still get plenty of snow.

Hell, my area would still get a decent amount of snow (relatively speaking) with such a warmup. It's not as if all temperatures we get now would be warmed by 1-4C. Instead, the average increases, but the cold shots will still be cold and the hot shots will still be hot. Perhaps we will get less cold shots of air and more above average periods, but we'll still have cold air and snow.

A perfectly placed coastal low tracking off the East Coast that was perfect for a massive Eastern snowstorm in 2000 isn't going to magically become a rainstorm with 40-50+ degree temperatures in 2100.

[Snowstorms]

Over the last 4 winters, the cold has been winning out. And it's not even close nationally.

Depending what source you use depends on your thoughts on the PDO phase. Personally I believe the PDO shifted into its cold phase back in 2007 based on jisao monthly values.

Here's a list of my Winter snowfall Totals since 97 and you can clearly see the effects of the PDO though despite that the AMO remains warm so you get a similar forcing from the Atlantic but less noticeable comparing to the Pacific. Certainly temperatures/precipitation trends across my region are similar to the PDO/AMO phases.

1997-98: 52."

1998-99: 74"

1999-00: 41"

2000-01: 73.6"

2001-02: 45"

2002-03: 70.5"

2003-04: 48"

2004-05: 60.6"

2005-06: 50.6"

2006-07: 34.6"

2007-08: 102.8"

2008-09: 99.7"

2009-10: 25.6"

2010-11: 59.8"

Avg: 50-52"

Since 2007, every winter expect 2009-10 has been above normal snowfall wise and summers have gotten wetter too.

We'll see.

[WeatherRusty]

These are the kind of statements that I question. Only if you buy into AGW, which many well-known scientists/meteorologists do not (John Coleman, William Gray to name a couple) would you make that statement. Regardless, I too question how much of the Earth's warming is due to human activity.

I will add that many of these meteorologists and "climate experts" stand to gain money for their causes by overstating and overhyping AGW. This situation alone causes me to at least be skeptical. I will not say there is NO CHANCE that AGW is real, but I don't think it is likely, at least to the extent that most proponents of AGW say it is.

Well we are going to find out aren't we! Since the world seems unlikely to find a way to prevent a total warming of at least 2C the science had better be wrong. The vast majority of the scientists closest to the research assure us we have a problem, but those of us who refuse to listen, including the above mentioned names, are banking on a failure of modern science. That or they believe it is all a hoax or conspiracy of some sort. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink.

[skierinvermont]

The premise of this thread is kind of ridiculous. Local variations in climate generally tend to trump global variations. A 1-4C rise in global temperatures may shorten the season some, but not dramatically and Milwaukee would still get plenty of snow.

Hell, my area would still get a decent amount of snow (relatively speaking) with such a warmup. It's not as if all temperatures we get now would be warmed by 1-4C. Instead, the average increases, but the cold shots will still be cold and the hot shots will still be hot. Perhaps we will get less cold shots of air and more above average periods, but we'll still have cold air and snow.

A perfectly placed coastal low tracking off the East Coast that was perfect for a massive Eastern snowstorm in 2000 isn't going to magically become a rainstorm with 40-50+ degree temperatures in 2100.

By 1-4C I assume you are referring to the century long estimates?

You can expect though that mid-latitude winters will warm approximately twice whatever the globe warms. High latitude winters it's a ratio of 3X.

So in Milwaukee by the end of the century, if the globe warms 2-3C, thats 4-6C in Milwaukee. 8-12F. The January average would be like late November.

What's weird about this article is what I mentioned earlier.. their forecast of 4-9F is midcentury which sounds really high to me based on the general info I mentioned above. By mid-century I'd expect only 2-4F not 4-9F.

As I said before this is probably because by midcentury they really mean 2070, which is not actually mid-century. And they are probably selecting high emissions scenarios like A2 instead of the usual A1B. You'd have to go directly to the source to see exactly what they did. That's just my guess.

[tacoman25]

By 1-4C I assume you are referring to the century long estimates?

You can expect though that mid-latitude winters will warm approximately twice whatever the globe warms. High latitude winters it's a ratio of 3X.

So in Milwaukee by the end of the century, if the globe warms 2-3C, thats 4-6C in Milwaukee. 8-12F. The January average would be like late November.

What's weird about this article is what I mentioned earlier.. their forecast of 4-9F is midcentury which sounds really high to me based on the general info I mentioned above. By mid-century I'd expect only 2-4F not 4-9F.

As I said before this is probably because by midcentury they really mean 2070, which is not actually mid-century. And they are probably selecting high emissions scenarios like A2 instead of the usual A1B. You'd have to go directly to the source to see exactly what they did. That's just my guess.

Shouldn't there be evidence that this is already happening? The U.S. is a mid-latitude country, and we certainly have not been warming faster than the global average so far. In fact, the U.S. has been warming slower.

[ORH_wxman]

By 1-4C I assume you are referring to the century long estimates?

You can expect though that mid-latitude winters will warm approximately twice whatever the globe warms. High latitude winters it's a ratio of 3X.

So in Milwaukee by the end of the century, if the globe warms 2-3C, thats 4-6C in Milwaukee. 8-12F. The January average would be like late November.

For some reason, this hasn't been remotely the case thus far though...at least for the United States. We have warmed at a rate of 0.055C per decade in the last 90 years during winters...and even if you want to go back to the end of LIA...we've warmed at 0.09C per decade since the 1890s. That is not consistent with warming significantly faster than the global average rise in temps.

The past decade has dropped enough that we now have a cooling trend since 1986 for CONUS winters.

[Alpha5]

For some reason, this hasn't been remotely the case thus far though...at least for the United States. We have warmed at a rate of 0.055C per decade in the last 90 years during winters...and even if you want to go back to the end of LIA...we've warmed at 0.09C per decade since the 1890s. That is not consistent with warming significantly faster than the global average rise in temps.

The past decade has dropped enough that we now have a cooling trend since 1986 for CONUS winters.

Dont forget that a good deal of that warming is due to UHI in cities.....KNYC records are no longer comparable to, say, the 1880's because of it.

[ORH_wxman]

Dont forget that a good deal of that warming is due to UHI in cities.....KNYC records are no longer comparable to, say, the 1880's because of it.

That is supposed to be already taken into account on the CONUS temp anomalies.

[WeatherRusty]

Shouldn't there be evidence that this is already happening? The U.S. is a mid-latitude country, and we certainly have not been warming faster than the global average so far. In fact, the U.S. has been warming slower.

For what ever reason, the U.S. has lagged behind the average warming. The northern hemisphere as a whole is warming the fastest due to the predominance of continental land mass. The arctic is warming at twice the rate of the globe. As a hemisphere the strongest warming must be occurring over northern Asia.

[tacoman25]

For what ever reason, the U.S. has lagged behind the average warming. The northern hemisphere as a whole is warming the fastest due to the predominance of continental land mass. The arctic is warming at twice the rate of the globe. As a hemisphere the strongest warming must be occurring over northern Asia.

And that's the thing about the global climate. It's not so predictable that you can just pick out a location, Milwaukee in this instance, and say "in 50 years, winters will be this warm". Because if it were that simple, Milwaukee and the rest of the U.S. should be experiencing warmer winters now than we are.

That is one of the main problems I have with alarmist math: you can't just plug in some numbers based on expected averages and say a certain location will see that much climate change in this amount of time. The climate system has many other variables that come into play.

As far as the Arctic warming 2x as fast as the rest of the globe...well, yeah we can say that's been the case since the +AMO set in during the mid 1990s, but there is evidence that it would not be warming that much if natural factors didn't also favor it.

[Jonger]

Dont forget that a good deal of that warming is due to UHI in cities.....KNYC records are no longer comparable to, say, the 1880's because of it.

Downtown Detroit in the month of June is usually 10+ degrees warmer then 20 miles away on radiational cooling nights. The problem for "warmers" is that most if not all recording done in the past was all in cities. Not many people monitored farm land in the past.

[michsnowfreak]

For some reason, this hasn't been remotely the case thus far though...at least for the United States. We have warmed at a rate of 0.055C per decade in the last 90 years during winters...and even if you want to go back to the end of LIA...we've warmed at 0.09C per decade since the 1890s. That is not consistent with warming significantly faster than the global average rise in temps.

The past decade has dropped enough that we now have a cooling trend since 1986 for CONUS winters.

In Detroit, the coldest January's on record (when breaking down per decade) were the 1970s. The warmest were the 1930s. In general, when you take out UHI, winters in this region (aside from the varying year to year obviously) are no different now than they were 100+ years ago. And as was pointed out, winters have been COLDER this decade. So the thought of some abrupt 8-12F rise in temps in 40-90 years seems next to impossible. And really, its not something Im worried about. As long as I will live, winter will likely be a long season here, with 5+ months of snow potential. Same for you. So what happens when we're dead, we wont be here to witness, so Im not worried about it lol.

[Jonger]

In Detroit, the coldest January's on record (when breaking down per decade) were the 1970s. The warmest were the 1930s. In general, when you take out UHI, winters in this region (aside from the varying year to year obviously) are no different now than they were 100+ years ago. And as was pointed out, winters have been COLDER this decade. So the thought of some abrupt 8-12F rise in temps in 40-90 years seems next to impossible. And really, its not something Im worried about. As long as I will live, winter will likely be a long season here, with 5+ months of snow potential. Same for you. So what happens when we're dead, we wont be here to witness, so Im not worried about it lol.

I was just making note of the 1930's earlier today. That decade was terribly warm... More record highs were set in that decade then any other nationwide.

I have to add... Josh is a climate freak... This guy has records on just about EVERYTHING weather related. He measures snow by the hundredth of an inch I swear. Here I just eyeball everything, but heck its his hobby.. gotta do it right.

I do worry about things after I'm gone though, I have kids. That being said, with what I observe in records and directly taken from pro-AGW sites.. I see little to worry about. I seriously think a +5 degree temp will alter the world, but not enough to really effect humans more then what we have endured over a million years. 5+ degrees celsius is far from likely to occur, but even if it did... Not the end of humanity. Feedback alone would probably shift things back on its own. If humans died out, everything would revert back to normal anyhow.

[skierinvermont]

Shouldn't there be evidence that this is already happening? The U.S. is a mid-latitude country, and we certainly have not been warming faster than the global average so far. In fact, the U.S. has been warming slower.

In the long term it has been true in the U.S. that the winter has warmed faster than the globe has. Also, theoretically the effect would really be in the northern U.S. The southern U.S. still gets plenty of sun in winter.

Dec + jan have both warmed around .7-.8C/century while Feb has warmed 2C/century.. average would be 1.1 or 1.2C/century. About 50% more than the globe.

[skierinvermont]

I just made a graph of DJF 40-50N GISS .. shows 1.6C of warming on the trendline.. nearly 2X the global annual warming.

[ORH_wxman]

I just made a graph of DJF 40-50N GISS .. shows 1.6C of warming on the trendline.. nearly 2X the global annual warming.

Interesting that its mostly absent from the US winters.

Shows that its silly to try and paintbrush some place like Milwaukee as having a 30 day shorter winter because of AGW.

[ORH_wxman]

In the long term it has been true in the U.S. that the winter has warmed faster than the globe has. Also, theoretically the effect would really be in the northern U.S. The southern U.S. still gets plenty of sun in winter.

Dec + jan have both warmed around .7-.8C/century while Feb has warmed 2C/century.. average would be 1.1 or 1.2C/century. About 50% more than the globe.

The CONUS winters have only warmed 0.09C per decade since the 1890s and 0.055C since the 1920s...not at all consistent with warming significantly higher than the global temp rise.

They have actually showed a cooling trend since 1986 due to the recent decline. This is nothing like AGW hypothesis shows in the future.

[Jonger]

I just made a graph of DJF 40-50N GISS .. shows 1.6C of warming on the trendline.. nearly 2X the global annual warming.

That line would actually flatten out to zero if you wanted to place the entire rise/fall over a medium. Using a negative starting point is kind of disingenuous.

[skierinvermont]

The CONUS winters have only warmed 0.09C per decade since the 1890s and 0.055C since the 1920s...not at all consistent with warming significantly higher than the global temp rise.

They have actually showed a cooling trend since 1986 due to the recent decline. This is nothing like AGW hypothesis shows in the future.

.09C/decade is a good bit faster than the globe which has warmed at .07C/decade. That jibes with my 1.1/1.2C U.S. winters vs .8C globe annual.

Also most of the U.S. is south of 40N which you wouldn't really expect to warm that much faster in winter. The effect is much stronger were there is less sunlight.

[ORH_wxman]

.09C/decade is a good bit faster than the globe which has warmed at .07C/decade.

Also most of the U.S. is south of 40N which you wouldn't really expect to warm that much faster in winter.

Not even close to the "Double the warming in winter" that is suggested...and that is going back to the exit of the LIA in the late 1800s, which is being generous because of some natural warming...if we do it from the 1920s...its way less.

Doesn't match up...we get a cooling trend from 1986 because of the recent decline. Its clear that this hubris about "shorter winters" does not apply for the United States....because it certainly hasn't been very convincing in our temp record. Maybe it is in rural Asia.

The decline only gets larger and larger for years after 1986 which supports the multidecadal response to our climate in the US, and not one of GHGs in winter. One dwarfs the other, and its not GHGs.

[skierinvermont]

Not even close to the "Double the warming in winter" that is suggested...and that is going back to the exit of the LIA in the late 1800s, which is being generous because of some natural warming...if we do it from the 1920s...its way less.

Doesn't match up...we get a cooling trend from 1986 because of the recent decline. Its clear that this hubris about "shorter winters" does not apply for the United States....because it certainly hasn't been very convincing in our temp record. Maybe it is in rural Asia.

The decline only gets larger and larger for years after 1986 which supports the multidecadal response to our climate in the US, and not one of GHGs in winter. One dwarfs the other, and its not GHGs.

On a short timescale sure it can dwarf it. But long term for the U.S. I'd expect the last century's ratio of 1:1.5 to continue. Milwaukee and the northern plains might push the 2:1 ratio.

These aren't the actual theoretical numbers predicted by climate models.. I am just spitting out numbers from what I remember vaguely.

Also 1 century, especially considering not all the warming was anthropogenic and most of the GHG effect increase took place in the second half of the century, may not be very representative of what will occur with the much larger increase in the GHG effect that is anticipated. The radiative forcing from CO2 over the next century will be 2-3X that of the last century.