ncjoaquin Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Thanks J! Heres to a third snowy winter in a row for Aville. It's gonna seem kinda strange without Phil though. Yeah, maybe he'll come by and throw us a bone every once and a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 Nothing much new to add to this yet, but the RUC does show substantially colder air getting pulled south into the developing cutoff, than the same valid timeframe the GFS (and others) have it. Small scale things like this will probably have a big difference, esp. since pulling even colder air into the cutoff will mean a big difference. It's something to watch. Having a 4 contour spin travel from BHM to AVL with -1 or -2 degrees versus having -4 degree at 850 could be a big difference in actual outcome on p-types. RUC latest: (notice -6 to -9) GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Thanks, Robert!! Good pre-Iron Bowl reading to start off the day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 well its certainly possible. This is just my best guess but it could end up sagging further south than on my graphic. Or more north. Its hard to say yet. One thing though, the further south the cutoff becomes, the slower it would be, meaning a whole lot more rain than I have, or any of the models have. This is an evolving situation. If anything, I'm leaning slower and slower with it, and I'm not doing up the rain enough, generally speaking. Awesome write up as usual Robert This has been another fantastic system to track so far and I'm looking forward to the much needed rainfall and a surprise or two for some of the crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 Awesome write up as usual Robert This has been another fantastic system to track so far and I'm looking forward to the much needed rainfall and a surprise or two for some of the crew Thanks. You're in for some rain but the lion's share is north and west toward the GA/NC/SC border on this one. The GFS now puts down 5" and I was always suspicious of the lower numbers so I'm still gung ho on a big rain event for most of the southern Apps with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 The rate at which the rain falls is going to be a problem most likely for the GA/NC/SC border region. Its showing 1.50 per 6 hours and .75 per 3 hours so if you double that which could be accurate, then it's a pretty impressive rate of rainfall. The GFS is faster with moving the heavy band out but as with most cutoffs , I won't be surprised to see it remain nearly stationary for much longer. Could be some record daily rainfall amounts in ATL AHN GSP AVL region at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Awesome write up Robert, great detail as usual. Now if we can get one of these beasts in about 4 weeks we would have about 400 on the board and the pressure would really be on...LOL- glad i got the gutter fixed today!! Im expecting 3+ inches here anywhere up to 5.5" wouldnt surprise me.:raining:Much needed to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Pardon me, as I'm an observer, a member and a learner ... These cut-off lows are, I think, fairly rare down here. The last of any significance I remember way down on the Suwannee was Dec 21 - 23, 1989, when Gainesville got it's 1" "blizzard". Seems to me it was warm beforehand (like now across the south east) and warm pretty much thereafter. So - Question - Does anyone have data to indicate what an early/cold cut-off low portends for the remainder of a SE winter? I've scoured and can find no similar set-ups, so am going on "gut" --> pre-Christmas deep SE weather of significance (of this nature, anyway) seems to lead to a warm Jan/Feb. Hope I'm wrong and hope to be told so with some data! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The only similar early season upper level low that I can remember was the December 11, 2008 storm. It dropped 8 inches of snow in Mccomb, MS and 5 inches in Baton Rouge, LA. I think New orleans even saw accumulating snow. I remember watching webcams of that event while at work that morning. That winter went on to stink for my back yard. The only accumulating snow I got was from the March 1, 2009 ULL, and I only managed 2.75 inches from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Good disco, Robert. Looks like the Triangle misses out on everything. This is a remarkable system, and it will be very fascinating to watch it play out. Anyone who sees snow, take some pix! What, did you somehow blackout Jan 25, 2000 out of your memory or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 What, did you somehow blackout Jan 25, 2000 out of your memory or something? I think the Triangle has been paying for the gains it made during that storm for the last eleven years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 MEM doesn't seem too concerned yet, but the models look good for a significant to major event in west Tn, north Ms and nw AL to me. And considering the models are so far a little warmer than reality regarding the incoming 850 air (notice -9) the core of the cutoff should constrict in this area and have no trouble with temps at dendritic zone to yield snow. Always though during daylight esp. in November at this latitude the boundary is going to be warm, yet the forcing on the tightening 7h low and 850 low all show a very strong deformation band there, so I think more than likely this will rule the p-types, meaning heavy snow at times. This is Monday , especially into the Monday night period, and the inner white is where my greatest confidence is, but snow may spread deeper into se Ark, and central Mississippi as well as the vort begins to rotate strongly around the 5H center. In fact the colder air is further south into southeast Ark, Miss, Al versus around MEM and sw TN. By early Tuesday morning the NAM looks reasonable with the evolution. It has a tightening vort becoming strongly neg. tilt rounding the base of the 5H deep cutoff core, and very cold air (-6 to -9) will be moving in tandem with the moisture developing quickly across northern Alabama and Georgia during the night, roughly from a line BHM to ATL and north. This band will have to be watched for locally quick burst of moderate to heavy snow very late overnight and into early Tuesday , esp. toward the northern parts and as it approaches the srn Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Well can't believe I'm doing this here, but the set up for snow seems like it is there. This is kind of a wacky set up where the further south you are in this TROWAL/deformation area..the better your chances of snow. This has a classic TROWAL wrapping around the upper level low. Decent frontogenesis and deformation as the band of snow moves to the south and eventually wraps around the south side of the ULL and moves east. The best area seems like nrn MS right now with the piossibility of it getting into MEM I suppose. Here the NAM and GFS mid level progs. The NAM has a real good burst of lift near MEM with the coldest air in the mid levels just to the south of MEM. A lot of this cold near the surface will be more manufactured or dynamic cooling. Here it is going towards ATL, but in weakened form. Here is the GFS. A little more widespread with the good VV and lift. The ECMWF also targets nrn MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Well can't believe I'm doing this here, but the set up for snow seems like it is there. This is kind of a wacky set up where the further south you are in this TROWAL/deformation area..the better your chances of snow. This has a classic TROWAL wrapping around the upper level low. Decent frontogenesis and deformation as the band of snow moves to the south and eventually wraps around the south side of the ULL and moves east. The best area seems like nrn MS right now with the piossibility of it getting into MEM I suppose. Here the NAM and GFS mid level progs. The NAM has a real good burst of lift near MEM with the coldest air in the mid levels just to the south of MEM. A lot of this cold near the surface will be more manufactured or dynamic cooling. Here it is going towards ATL, but in weakened form. Here is the GFS. A little more widespread with the good VV and lift. The ECMWF also targets nrn MS. This a unique storm in a any year let alone a nina. thanks for taking time to post in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 This a unique storm in a any year let alone a nina. thanks for taking time to post in the thread. It's pretty cool. I hope it works out for some of you down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 A big thanks to all the Mets out there posting on this storm! This is a cool storm to follow and you all have explained a lot about what is going on and about what is going to happen. Thanks to all and this storm is going to be crazy coming in. Were are looking at some 6 inches of rain and they are calling for possibly 2 or three inches of snow in the higher elevations around were i live. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Well can't believe I'm doing this here, but the set up for snow seems like it is there. This is kind of a wacky set up where the further south you are in this TROWAL/deformation area..the better your chances of snow. This has a classic TROWAL wrapping around the upper level low. Decent frontogenesis and deformation as the band of snow moves to the south and eventually wraps around the south side of the ULL and moves east. The best area seems like nrn MS right now with the piossibility of it getting into MEM I suppose. Here the NAM and GFS mid level progs. The NAM has a real good burst of lift near MEM with the coldest air in the mid levels just to the south of MEM. A lot of this cold near the surface will be more manufactured or dynamic cooling. Here it is going towards ATL, but in weakened form. Here is the GFS. A little more widespread with the good VV and lift. The ECMWF also targets nrn MS. If im not mistaken, you might want to remove those maps if they are from wrightweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 If im not mistaken, you might want to remove those maps if they are from wrightweather. He works for WSI and has permission. Good luck to the folks who get under the good lift. Interesting setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 He works for WSI and has permission. Good luck to the folks who get under the good lift. Interesting setup. That works for me. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Already some mixed rain/snow occuring around Memphis and will be pretty soon around Columbus to Tupelo as the axis begins to develop there. The system is still strengthening and will grow colder and have strong dynamic cooling involved later today in northern Ms, and sw TN, east ARK. By overnight as the 7H system moves north and even Northwest, the moisture will begin to pivot strongly and wrap around toward northern Miss, and enter a solid northern third to one-half of Alabama early Tuesday morning as likely snow with -6 at 850 air gets pulled ahead of the incoming strong vort that may carry it into northern third of GA by sometime Tuesday. RUC has strong lift with this feature in nw Alabama and north MS by 18 hours so the snow could fall heavily but obviously ground temps and sfc temps will be above freezing. Still Winter storm watches are issued for 1" to 3" , and will depend on where the best bands develop and dynamic cooling. Developing Stages: Current (11 am Mon Nov 28) 850 temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 A snapshot of a few NWS headings so far. Winter Weather Advisories in Ms, Al, Tn, Winter Storm Watches TN, MS, lots of flood warnings and Flash Flood Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nice call on the placement of winter weather, and before the local offices moved on it. You appear to have hit the zone for higher amounts as well. Are you this good for hurricanes, LOL?? If so, I'll be looking your way next August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Robert's DA MAN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 29, 2011 Author Share Posted November 29, 2011 Nice call on the placement of winter weather, and before the local offices moved on it. You appear to have hit the zone for higher amounts as well. Are you this good for hurricanes, LOL?? If so, I'll be looking your way next August. Robert's DA MAN! thanks for the nice words. As for tropics, I don't really have a lot of experience with it , not nearly as much as compared to non tropical meteorology, so it's not my forte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Robert, Your work is outstanding as always. On the mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I'd like to give you a congrats, Foothills. Many of us over at TN weather followed your posts closely. I'll admit that those of us that have been in this game for a while now....none of us really believed this would happen. As always, you give great forecasts and are not afraid to state what you believe...and that is something that is sorely missing amongst meteorologists today (especially broadcast meteorology). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Congrats Robert. You did it again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Robert, Your work is outstanding as always. On the mark. where's the check you were sending? From the last snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Robert's our weather clairvoyant, and sage...always showing us glimpses and visions of a glorious possible weather future. Then, when it is coming true, he has to retire and rest,, having been depleted by his efforts Rest well, my friend, knowing you nailed another one! It is gonna be fun riding along with you again this winter Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Robert's our weather clairvoyant, and sage...always showing us glimpses and visions of a glorious possible weather future. Then, when it is coming true, he has to retire and rest,, having been depleted by his efforts Rest well, my friend, knowing you nailed another one! It is gonna be fun riding along with you again this winter Tony +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.