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A Day of Life in the NYC Sub-Forum - Part II

Hailstorm

By Hailstorm,
in New York City Metro

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted

Greetings, everyone. I have read Earthlight's superb role-playing of the various members in this forum during the tracking of winter storms in a thread about 9 months ago. The thread was labeled, "A day of life in the NYC forum." As such, this has induced me to add my feedback and own version here. Besides, we can all chime into this thread now considering that we are going into a snow-less stretch for a at least a week or so; and that there has been new members joining these forums ever since. All of you should feel free to comment on my version and submit their own storyline in this thread. I'm sure some of you are able to add something based on the fact that this topic hasn't been touched in a long while. Without any further ado, I will attempt my best at mimicking some infamous and comical quotes of other members based on my two years as a member here:

The theoretical situation: It is December 15, 2011; and NYC has only seen 3" of snow courtesy of the Halloween storm only. We are 48 hours out from an impending full-fledged blizzard in the NYC metro area. At this point, all of the operational and ensemble models agree on this scenario, except for the notoriously sub-par NAM, GGEM and GFS that do not handle forecasting intricate deep coastal lows that well until under 48 hours out.

8:45 PM: 0z NAM begins rolling. Ag3 swiftly posts each 3-hour incremented MLSP forecast map from the NCEP site every 90 seconds.

8:50 PM: Earthlight states the "0z NAM is already dramatically more amplified than its 18z run earlier in the day and that this awesome 500 mb depiction at 12 hours is the best he's seen in his entire life."

9:00 PM: At 24 hours, the NAM depicts the coastal low deepening to a 982 mb low and is not even north of the coastal NC-VA border. QPF is already hammering DC-BWI-PHL with -15* C 850 mb and 20-25* F surface temps in all the major cities. NorEaster27, however, says, "low is too close to the coast, nyc should only expect rain with perhaps back-end flurries in this setup."

9:05 PM: TheTrials counter-argues with NorEaster27 and says, "relax, chill dude. let the run finish, bro." Then during next 5 minutes, 8 other members follows suit with TheTrials' stance against NorEaster27 and immediately fills up 2 full pages of suggestions for moderators to ban NorEaster27.

9:15 PM: At 48 hours, the NAM crushes all of NYC with 2.2" QPF of snow in just 6 hours; and the surface low deepens to 958 mb 50 miles east of Belmar, NJ. The board goes offline for 10 minutes due to the increased server load since 15 members post the same 48-hour total QPF maps at the same time.

9:25 PM: At 72 hours, the NAM ends the storm for NYC. Metfan (Snow88) posts a link to the NAM text soundings and says, "OMG, the NAM text soundings print out 3.7 of QPF or 37 inches of snow from the whole storm for JFK" with 5 snowman and 5 popcorn emotions.

9:40 PM: SnowGoose chimes in and states, "I am not buying the NAM's ridiculously overdone QPF amounts since after all, we are in a La Nina year. La Nina years tend to hinder the sub-tropical jet so the atmosphere will not be loaded with an insane amount of moisture." He then compares this storm's H5 setup to a previous 1980s-era La Nina year analog that dropped less than 6" of snow in NYC.

9:50 PM: KEITH L.I furiously replies to SnowGoose and says, "stop being a debbie downer; you are going to get hundreds of thousands of people killed. this is a dangerous storm of unprecedented proportions."

10:10 PM: While everyone waits for the 0z GFS to roll, nycsnow constantly pesters to every other member and asks, "how much wind does the nam show for sheepshead bay, brooklyn?" Everyone ignores him.

10:30 PM: 0z GFS starts to roll. Again, Ag3 begins to post every 3-hour MLSP map off the NCEP site.

10:40 PM: Earthlight compares the 0z GFS to the 0z NAM and states, "GFS at 18 hours is impressive with the 500 mb vorts and the southern stream shortwaves; but the trough is a hair less amplified than the NAM. I would be surprised if this run didn't shift the surface low 10 miles to the east."

10:45 PM: Based on Earthlight's above analysis and the GFS at 24 hours placing the surface low a tick east of the NAM, the typical weenies start to go into "panic mode." NorEaster27 blindly fabricates and says, "people in this forum should've listened to me, the inevitable trend to the east has begun. nyc only will get a coating to an inch on this run and i now expect the next model suite to be a complete whiff for everyone and shift 200 more miles to the east."

11:00 PM: The run still gives DC-BWI-PHL-NYC a good snowstorm between 24-72 hours; however, the QPF amounts only range between 1.25"-1.75" when compared to the NAM.

11:05 PM: Ag3 posts 72-hour accumulated QPF clown maps for the Northeast off of Raleigh's site from the GFS. He somehow is able to "correctly" pinpoint an exact visual overlay of the QPF range and says, "Clown maps give around 1.32" for NYC, 1.46" for Astoria and 1.47" for Sundog. Epic storm."

11:10 PM: Ace whines and says, "wow this storm is going to underperform for me and give me less than 18". anything less than 18" these days are just a big disappointment."

11:25 PM: Tornadojay posts a 48-hour GFS skew-t diagram of the entire column in the atmosphere for NYC and says, "look at the incredible jet streak and divergence that will come with this storm. it shows a 150-knot low-level jet. i wouldn't be surprised to see a 85 MPH gust that will mix down to the surface."

11:35 PM: Isotherm comes into the thread and predicts, "If this storm performs as it is being projected to at this range, I would give NYC a very good chance that it will rack up a 80-90" winter for 2011-2012. The solar sunspots are just at a really historic low level right now; thus, this will force the AO to be extremely negative for the entire winter."

11:40 PM: The 0z GGEM starts to roll. SACRUS posts its images that are 400% wider than what our 24" widescreen monitors can handle.

11:45 PM: Chris L confidently and joyfully says based off these maps, "The GGEM easily gives NE NJ and NYC 20-30"+ of snow. Epic January 1996 and December 2011 redux." However, the GGEM actually shows the 540-dm line well northwest of NYC and is right over the Poconos.

11:50 PM: Earthlight corrects Chris L and says, "Calm down, dude. What on Earth are you smoking?"

12:00 AM: Jetski09 randomly shows up in the thread and says, "That GGEM solution has a very good chance of verifying. Climatology will probably bite NYC and nail the coffin for this storm. Since NYC snowstorms are rare, I don't see this snowstorm playing out for anyone in NYC metro. I will instead look forward to enjoying my 50*F+ temps this Christmas holiday with zero snow cover.

12:15 AM: The 0z GEFS ensembles come out and delivers about the same snowfall for NYC as the OP GFS run. Metfan and TheTrials post various versions of them. The Trials then shockingly gives a random outlook for the 240-hour MLSP map by saying, "gotta watch hour 240 for some action, look at those 500 mb vortices showing up all over the place in the country."

12:25 AM: Metfan posts a Tweet from Joe Bastardi and says, "FWIW, JB is giving the March 1888 analog for this storm and forecasts that the storm will be equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane in pressure."

12:30 AM: Forky Fork comes into the thread and strongly condemns Metfan for giving a snippet of Bastardi's thoughts and says, " i wanna break your fingers. my rabbit can predict the entire winter better than jb can."

12:35 AM: Metfan posts the 0z experimental FIMM model and says, "FWIW, FIMM is a big hit for NYC." However, the FIMM shows the center of the storm's colorful isobars packed on top of NYC which typically is not a snowstorm for NYC proper.

12:45 AM: 0z Euro starts to roll.

1:00 AM: Earthlight then states, "At 36 hours, the Euro shows an epic CCB setting up over the entire area."

1:05 AM: Earthlight again adds, "At 48 hours, the CCB is cranking at an awesome rate. Wow, the depicted frotogenesis on the Euro is the best map I've ever seen on any model for my entire life. 977 mb low goes 75 miles to the east of Belmar, NJ. 850s and freezing line are way offshore. NYC gets 2.05" of QPF; while nzucker's home in NH gets 2.35" of QPF."

1:30 AM: Nzucker comes into the thread from the New England forums and says, "I am not regretting relocating to NH since I will see an extra 0.30" of QPF than my home near NYC from this storm. I am 100% confident that my higher elevation in NH is allowing this to happen.

2:15 AM: Nycsnow quadruple-posts and says each time, "since the euro is showing a very powerful 977 low offshore, will upton issue a blizzard warning for my home in sheepshead bay, brooklyn?" Again, no one responds to him.

3:00 AM: Dark Energy comes into the thread and says, "i believe there will be a good chance for severe wx in southern nj where there is decent cape values and where the temps are near 55*F. i may chase the t-storms down there rather than to see the snowstorm." However, there is almost no poster in the NYC forum that posts from Southern NJ.

3:30 AM: ORH_WXman comes into the thread from the New England forum and states, "0z Euro ensembles have ticked quite a bit east from the OP run. This sort of raises a red flag for those wanting to see NYC to get the biggest amounts. Instead, I believe someone in SNE will see the maximum amount from this storm."

4:20 AM: Based on the 0z guidance suite, Upton issues a Blizzard Watch for NYC and the immediate coastline and calls for a generic 12-18" of snowfall, 55 MPH gusts and a 2-feet tidal surge for the shoreline with moderate beach erosion.

6:00 AM: The storm begins to take shape in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico with severe weather in the Gulf States and very heavy snow breaking loose in Tennessee and North Carolina.

8:30 AM: Earthlight posts a water vapor imagery loop of the storm and posts a "Mother of God" image.

9:00 AM: Out of the blue, NorEaster27 makes very feeble points and mentions, "the mets and posters here are really dropping the ball with this storm. the temps and dew point obs in richmond right now are 2 degrees higher than modeled. also, the pressure in the storm is 1 mb higher than modeled. the radar right now doesn't look impressive at all as well. this will be your run-in-the-mill type storm for all of nyc. expect no more than 3" of snow as most of the precip will be offshore or will be melted snow before it hits the ground. upton should cancel all the blizzard watches. enjoy your cirrus clouds folks."

9:05 AM: Earthlight says, "I've had enough. Take a timeout, buddy." He then swiftly suspends NorEaster27 for the remainder of the storm.

9:10 AM: Ag3 reponds, "Finally! That ignorant troll is banned!"

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